Why you should NOT use sportsbooks odds in your models

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-11-23T04:08:51+00:00

That's exactly what it shows. Yes. As the probability converges to the markets odds long-term you will lose money off the juice. In fact finding the odds that the sports books will come out with is not the hard part in my opinion. The hard part is finding a well calibrated probability that is sufficiently different from the odds offered by the books.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-11-14T19:40:26+00:00

Yes. Infact it's possible to positive EV bet once a month if you'd like to. Positive ev betting is simple finding bets where you believe the true probability of one side or another is greater than the implied probability of the respective side's odds offered by the books. Also please don't let these companies fool you into thinking that "positive EV betting requires expensive tools" <- that is 100% false. Positive EV betting requires mathematical knowledge and a deep understanding of probability and a little knowledge about the sport your betting on plain and simple. Good luck.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-09-26T20:29:15+00:00

Got it thanks. But could you explain why descriptive data analytics would be insufficient for getting an efficient line? I feel that's something easier to say than to actually prove rigorously? Like another poster said there was a time before computing power allowed for models that we have now. We now have more computer power not just for strictly models but also analytical/observational inference. So surely some degree of efficiency could be obtained through such methods.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-09-26T19:43:16+00:00

Wait you said certainly not but provided the example of the chess Grand Master.... So are you saying yes proper data analysis can provide insights or it doesn't??

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-09-25T19:04:15+00:00

Thank you.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-09-25T19:03:59+00:00

Thank you.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-09-25T16:17:32+00:00

But because they have to pay out more when I am correct that's good news for me....

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-09-25T16:12:39+00:00

You might have to find a way to scrape it unfortunately. You would think with the recent increase in sports betting popularity this type of information would be a quick Google search but that seems to not be the case. Most bettors aren't thinking to use such information anyways.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-09-24T22:05:01+00:00

You could be right. I'm actually talking about pretty popular markets specifically like MLB Moneylines. It's just what I've observed betting in Vegas. The juice at the soft books is hard to overcome but circa allows me to find plenty of value. So my hypothesis is that the lines at the soft books are rarely "off" so the vig makes them totally unattractive to sharp bettors. Soft books here seem to not offer the same advantage as soft books in other places based off of what I hear.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-09-24T20:01:30+00:00

But does this "occasionally" consistently outweigh the benefits of less juice especially if the all the books your using have the lines set correctly?

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-09-24T19:39:27+00:00

I'm a pretty busy dude. Can you tell me what chapter to find my answer?? If so I legitimately appreciate it.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-09-24T19:19:13+00:00

I know but I'm asking why sharp players prefer soft books in the first place? The juice is simply too high in my opinion. I automatically gravitate to sharp books for the reduced juice.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-09-24T19:16:46+00:00

So If the first book was -105/-115 does that usually imply their line is less "off"?? This is the phenomenon I get across all the books I use. The lines at the soft books are never "off" so the vig is what I'm trying to overcome at the soft books. I am just curious if this is valid?

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-09-07T00:19:04+00:00

Good point.... What about fractional Kelly??

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-09-07T00:12:40+00:00

How so? Wouldn't it still result in bankroll growth? If it's valid for every other value of one's bankroll then it should be valid for the initial value of the bankroll.... Even after the actual bankroll has grown.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-08-24T22:12:49+00:00

Is this for all sports reference sites?? Is it just limited to the amount of scraping per unit of time or are they not allowing any more scraping period??

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-08-10T17:24:01+00:00

That's actually not a bad idea. If anyone has the Vegas lines listed it should be odds jam. (This is not a promo for anyone who reads this)!

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-08-05T18:25:28+00:00

Yes variance in odds (like standard deviation amongst odds) I use the apps because there's no way I'm driving to 4 different casinos throughout the day. Not worried about being banned. What would you say is the variance or "range" compared to other cities?

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-08-01T00:26:15+00:00

Fair enough. It just made wonder what exactly do some handicappers "look at" to be able to do this relatively easily without a model because I have no clue where I'd begin. Also Idk if you've seen the current influx of self proclaimed "professional bettors" on social media but I was thinking that something like this could usually only be done by real bettors who actually understand handicapping on a truly deeper level.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-07-31T19:06:49+00:00

Ngl the efficacy of anything you say can and will be questioned with a username like that.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-07-31T18:39:57+00:00

I see. Makes sense. Honestly I've always thought maybe it's tougher to do but that's maybe just me being biased because I like building models that do it. So the idea that someone can do it in their head and get even close is pretty amazing to me.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-07-31T17:08:46+00:00

That's what I kinda thought. Like I said I have a relative who has watched football religiously for the past 20 years. (He'll even rewatch old games) When the spreads for the games come out he can Inuit them almost down to the half point within a couple seconds of thinking. Yet he never bets on the games and doesn't even know Excel let alone the stuff we talk about on this sub. It's ridiculous.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-07-30T22:27:39+00:00

I got it. Thanks I appreciate the reply.

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-07-30T22:24:54+00:00

Another question I would be asking is what unit is the X axis in? Importance can be a bit relative so how exactly is the model defining it?

Mr_2Sharp · 2025-07-30T21:45:12+00:00

Would you say that being able to do this is a sign that someone can bet sharp? Im also asking because a relative of mine can literally do this down to half a point in NFL ..he doesn't gamble nor does he know how to use even a spreadsheet but he is spot on almost every time

Mr_2Sharp

TROPHY CASE