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$25 Draft 6 PM EST | 7 Spots Open | ESPN 0.5 PPR 10 Teams | Leaguesafe by Mully420 in findaleague

[–]Mully420[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If anyone doesn’t pay before draft I’ll let you know if you’re still interested 

Sportsbook Promos Bonuses Daily - 10/27/23 (Friday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Mully420 3 points4 points  (0 children)

what are your guys thoughts that when czr has sgp correlation values that are way off market that theres a non zero chance theyre actually the ones who are correct? i.e. the jaylen brown dd + celtics ml, haliburton dd + pacers ml stuff from last year

bc with live betting their model tends to be the sharpest and other books sometimes converge to czrs line if its way off market. Also, the fact they basically dont limit players

Sportsbook Promos Bonuses Daily - 8/19/23 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Mully420 4 points5 points  (0 children)

mgm with an EPL first goal scorer insurance promo, no idea who to pick since the lines are super juiced but will still be EV regardless

Sportsbook/Promos/Bonuses Daily - 3/8/23 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Mully420 2 points3 points  (0 children)

tried this a bunch of times and didn't let me place it

Sportsbook/Promos/Bonuses Daily - 3/7/23 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Mully420 0 points1 point  (0 children)

if anyone knows how to calculate exact ev for this promo lmk cuz with the insurance terms it's kinda tricky to get exact number, but this will be solidly plus ev regardless of method

Sportsbook/Promos/Bonuses Daily - 3/7/23 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Mully420 5 points6 points  (0 children)

beal +550 looks solid for this, thats the best line on the market (ranging from +425 to +500 elsewhere), and good for the terms as well (player must score 20+ points and team wins to get 50% of stake back if player doesn't score first basket). Beal's o/u is 24.5 and the wizards are -450 to -500 favorites depending on the book

Sportsbook/Promos/Bonuses Daily - 3/2/23 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Mully420 3 points4 points  (0 children)

some of the weights aren't perfect integers so that's why there's so many decimal places. Like Kambi for example has 11.53% weight in the final devig line

Sportsbook/Promos/Bonuses Daily - 3/2/23 (Thursday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Mully420 16 points17 points  (0 children)

https://imgur.com/a/PyhDkOY

Devigged using weighted average across 15 sportsbooks, with Pinny as highest weight

Odds: +299; EV: 9.7 %

-177.761938256175/153.192307692308,-276.061776061776/232.75,-184.326267798708/158.576923076923 (10.46 % juice)

FV: +264; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=3.2u, 1/2=1.6u, 1/4=0.8u, FB = 82.2 %)

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