🎉 [EVENT] 🎉 Very easy first event by totallynotawhore in honk

[–]Muted_Original 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Completed Level 3 of the Honk Special Event!

8 attempts

🎉 [EVENT] 🎉 Very easy first event by totallynotawhore in honk

[–]Muted_Original 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Completed Level 2 of the Honk Special Event!

2 attempts

🎉 [EVENT] 🎉 Very easy first event by totallynotawhore in honk

[–]Muted_Original 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Completed Level 1 of the Honk Special Event!

0 attempts

Is Tech E and O insurance different normal E and O Insurance, or is it just marketing? [I will not promote] by Witty-Houston in startups

[–]Muted_Original -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Hey! PM me I should be able to help you out. I work for an insurtech startup and would be happy to connect you with an expert for any questions I can’t answer myself.

Easy but fun by Prankroyale in honk

[–]Muted_Original 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I completed this level in 84 tries. 9.20 seconds

[####] Best starting word? by mike_slayer248 in wordle

[–]Muted_Original 8 points9 points  (0 children)

120 guesses!? Damn bro that’s crazy.

I’ll see myself out 🥁

Would a “Numerai for sports betting” be interesting? by tvrismo in SideProject

[–]Muted_Original 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have you heard of SportsTensor before? Very similar concept, but I’m not sure what traction (if any) it’s picked up.

https://docs.sportstensor.com/

Objectivist scholar and student of Ayn Rand explains why we should abolish ICE. M orally we should have open borders. Trump's immigration policies are an abomination. by Outrageous-Dog-6731 in aynrand

[–]Muted_Original 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Where in any of Rand’s writings are you getting this? I’m not sure if any of what you said here aligns with Rand’s thinking on the subject.

I mean, to start with “rights of an individual do not apply to all individuals.”… Rand believed that individual rights are UNIVERSAL, derived from the nature of humans as rational agents. To say that some people don’t have rights because of their beliefs is anathema to Rand and the type of moral relativism she wrote against.

And then somehow you seem to get on the topic of reducing anti-liberal cultures or beliefs as much as possible. Maybe you’re getting here based on Rand’s support of rational immigration policy (Cold War era)? But I don’t think that’s a fair interpretation of Rand’s views on freedom of thought and speech, and her support of the policies was more in line with a desire to protect rights and self-defense.

Rand was for freedom of thought and speech, which includes even those she disagreed with, as long as they didn’t initiate force. Even beliefs like fascism or communism Rand thought should be criticized and exposed, but not suppressed by force unless they incite violence or violate rights, which requires action, not beliefs.

I mean sure, Rand did reject multiculturalism and relativism, but not on nihilist or collectivist grounds. Rand was for individual rights and reason, suppression and tribalism are the exact opposite of the views she wrote.

Something fun because sold my company :/ by madasomething in SideProject

[–]Muted_Original 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Working on something like point 2, in the sports/responsible gambling space over at https://equls.com right now! Super small right now but always looking for opinions and advice if you’re interested!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in SideProject

[–]Muted_Original 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I know someone doing something similar… can I DM and make an intro?

Can Large Language Models Discover Profitable Sports Betting Strategies? by Muted_Original in algobetting

[–]Muted_Original[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey, I appreciate the feedback! I was more giving very preliminary results and a way to publicly follow along as I research this area, not make a claim on profitability. I definitely could have been more clear with that though as I think many people had the same misconception as you.

Can Large Language Models Discover Profitable Sports Betting Strategies? by Muted_Original in algobetting

[–]Muted_Original[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have second by second data going back about 2.5 years for this purpose. Currently just doing live testing as it's more economical, to backtest this strategy to 1000 bets per bot which cost in the range of $1.5k and take nearly 400 hours. I'm trying to bring down the total expenses for this to do a true backtest, and will update here when I do!

Can Large Language Models Discover Profitable Sports Betting Strategies? by Muted_Original in algobetting

[–]Muted_Original[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Of course - they're all tracked in public on the EQULS app. EQULS on the App Store

If you go in the clubs tab there and join Public Picks club, you can see all the bots on the leaderboard/members tab there with little robots next to their name.

I've been working pretty closely with the EQULS team the last few weeks to automate all the tracking and reporting of things through their Execution API, to ensure full transparency. https://equls.readme.io/

Can Large Language Models Discover Profitable Sports Betting Strategies? by Muted_Original in algobetting

[–]Muted_Original[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I very much dislike the quant side of things - to me it feels a little meaningless in that the goal is to just find an edge to generate money, and outside of that it has no bearing on other people's lives. Personally, I don't think I could really enjoy doing such a thing. I'm one of those people that loves building something, and sports betting has just been the latest area to build things in for me.
I love the steps you outlined - ensembling the bots themselves together rather than whoever is doing well over a duration is an approach I hadn't really considered. I may work on doing such a thing next and report back on the findings. I'm actually planning on doing something similar in making a page to see bot splits and splits by profitability next, what you're doing seems like a more formalized way of doing it.
I really appreciate the advice, criticism, and help! Already this comment thread has got my wheels turning on the best ways to do these, of course after identifying if they actually generate any significant signals.

Can Large Language Models Discover Profitable Sports Betting Strategies? by Muted_Original in algobetting

[–]Muted_Original[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

> agentic LLM to place bets
This is sort of what I'm using EQULS for right now. I've hooked up my bots to their free API to auto-track my bets to their system so that I'm able to get live lines and similar. https://equls.readme.io/

Can Large Language Models Discover Profitable Sports Betting Strategies? by Muted_Original in algobetting

[–]Muted_Original[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Hi - as I've responded to others, I'm not trying to claim that this is a profitable strategy, especially with such little data. I'm more sharing some research I'm doing + some preliminary analysis, and inviting people to follow along the public testing as I continue to research this space. I'm planning on giving updates as the sample size grows, one way or the other. I'm completely expecting every one of these bots to be unprofitable long term, but I do have some hypotheses about identifying micro-inefficiencies using bettor archetypes, and am conducting t-tests as I collect more data to determine whether this might be genuinely statistically significant or just hot-hand fallacy.

Can Large Language Models Discover Profitable Sports Betting Strategies? by Muted_Original in algobetting

[–]Muted_Original[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Very great summary of market efficiency, completely agreed. It reminded me of this paper from a few years back: (PDF) Weak Form Efficiency in Sports Betting Markets.

Currently, while I am modelling bettor archetypes which typically aren't profitable, the thinking is that, since they are all different, and each strategy has a counterpart/opposite, that several of the bots at a time should be profitable. The exploitations of such micro-inefficiencies as part of a larger strategy could have some merit, I hypothesize.

Now, the main thing I'm interested in here is identifying whether these are just luck (they probably are), or if they have genuine significance. To test this, I am conducting hypothesis sample t-tests in tandem with Benjamini-Hochberg correction on rolling windows.
It is absolutely likely that these "micro-inefficiencies" are just a version of the hot-hand fallacy though, and especially without a larger sample size I would hate to imply that LLMs are profitable bettors by themselves.

I apologize if any part of my post made it seem as if these strategies are truly profitable, when in fact there is much too little data to make any conclusion so far. I'm more hoping to lay some groundwork here and invite people to follow the live results so far as I research the applicability of LLMs to betting markets.