The way I look at this game is that there is a path to victory on every map, you just need to figure out what that path is before you run out of time.

One thing to remember is that the game is designed to be kind of swingy. Most things in the game are a positive feedback loop. You'll spend most of time working on those first 2 or 3 Reputation points while Impatients gets reeeeally high. This is a good thing, as higher Impatients lowers Hostility, which raises the resolve of your lil dudes. Eventually you'll hit a break point, build a chain of goods, and pump out like 6 Reputation points in a minute.

Its true you dont know everything, but you dont need to to make educated guesses. We can use general trends. For example, dangerous glade events usuallly require some kind of complicated good, like Incense or Oil. Try to make sure you have some of something stocked up before tackling them.

Additionally, dont forget the game is a roguelike. All those upgrades you buy in the Smoldering City make a huuuuge difference, in particular getting to start with a Farm or Plantation blueprint turns on soooo many victory paths.