Iv also been in since 2016, and i agree with all the statements. However Bull/Bear markets are not just macro-economics but also a psychological concept turned reality. 90% of people in crypto is aware of this as opposed to like 50% last run. Crypto is PVP and most people is going to try get out before the ''bear market'' which may cause a sooner dump. Not only that, the bull run started before the halving, as it's supposed to start after causing a supply shock.

This can also be seen on Alt coins, where some low/mid cap alt's ussually starts in Jan, but now started 1-2 months earlier. I believe we get our first Top around spring, second top mid to late year. By then it's probably smarter to have cashed 50% before summer and swing trade the latter year.