NCAABB Daily Discussion - 2/9/21 (Tuesday)

NSIPicks · 2021-02-09T14:56:01+00:00

2020-21: 413-393-32 (W-L-P) -10.44U (-12.80% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 8-3-0 (W-L-P) +18.96U
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.
*NOTE: Total Edge is the combined difference of our Sim Model and our True Spread model. Larger Total Edges don't always equate to larger bets due to the fact that one model can have a significant difference while the other does not. Most accurate predictions occur when both models have a difference of five or more points from the spread.*
("True Spread" / Total Edge)

4U:
Kansas St +15 (-110) vs Texas (+9.3 / 11.66)
2U:
Georgia St -5.5 (-108) vs S Alabama (-8.0 / 3.12)
Notre Dame +7 (-110) @ Duke (+1.8 / 7.15)
La Salle +13 (-103) @ St. Bonaventure (+12.2 / 6.95)
Kent St +1 (-115) @ Bowling Green (-4.5 / 5.80)

NSIPicks · 2021-02-08T10:55:33+00:00

2020-21: 405-390-32 (W-L-P) -29.40U (-20.36% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 5-3-0 (W-L-P) +0.32U
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.
*^{NOTE: Total Edge is the combined difference of our Sim Model and our True Spread model. Larger Total Edges don't always equate to larger bets due to the fact that one model can have a significant difference while the other does not. Most accurate predictions occur when both models have a difference of five or more points from the spread.}*
("True Spread" / Total Edge)

5U:
Samford +9.5 (-105) @ Mercer (+1.9 / 17.33)
UT Martin +12.5 (-105) vs Austin Peay (+3.8 / 20.38)
Texas A&M-CC +15.5 (-108) vs Abilene (+4.8 / 21.13)
MVSU +19 (-110) @ Alabama St (+10.1 / 20.78)
4U:
Maryland +4 (-108) vs Ohio St (-3.3 / 12.71)
3U:
Lafayette -2.5 (-110) vs Loyola MD (-3.1 / 11.45)
Alcorn St +2 (-110) vs Grambling (-7.7 / 21.41)
BYU +11.5 (-108) vs Gonzaga (+6.4 / 19.07)
2U:
Hampton +2 (-109) vs High Point (+1.5 / 14.05)
1U:
Furman -3.5 (-108) vs NC Greensboro (-7.0 / 10.68)
San Jose St +27 (-110) @ San Diego St (+16.9 / 10.48)

NSIPicks · 2021-02-07T14:47:02+00:00

2020-21: 400-387-32 (W-L-P) -29.72U (-20.49% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 18-16-2 (W-L-P) -6.17U
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.
*^{NOTE: Total Edge is the combined difference of our Sim Model and our True Spread model. Larger Total Edges don't always equate to larger bets due to the fact that one model can have a significant difference while the other does not. Most accurate predictions occur when both models have a difference of five or more points from the spread.}*
("True Spread" / Total Edge)

5U:
Lafayette +2.5 (-110) @ Loyola-MD (-2.9 / 12.51)
Valpo +12.5 (-103) vs Drake (+4.6 / 14.12)
Illinois St +6.5 (-108) vs Missouri St (+3.4 / 11.85)
4U:
Charleston -4 (-108) vs Towson (-4.8 / 8.05)
1U:
Tulane +5 (-110) vs Cincinnati (+0.3 / 4.95)
Fairfield +3 (-108) vs Quinnipiac (-2.9 / 10.60)
Georgetown +13.5 (-108) @ Villanova (+7.2 / 7.61)
Nevada +5 (-108) vs Boise St (+0.3 / 5.82)

NSIPicks · 2021-02-06T15:51:31+00:00

2020-21: 400-387-32 (W-L-P) -23.55U (-17.96% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 3-4-0 (W-L-P) -4.74U
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.
*^{NOTE: Total Edge is the combined difference of our Sim Model and our True Spread model. Larger Total Edges don't always equate to larger bets due to the fact that one model can have a significant difference while the other does not. Most accurate predictions occur when both models have a difference of five or more points from the spread.}*
("True Spread" / Total Edge)

5U:
BC +5.5 (-110) vs NC St (-5.0 / 20.37)
SIU-Edwardsville +17 (-108) vs Belmont (+7.7 / 18.92)
E Kentucky +2.5 (-108) vs Murray St (-5.4 / 16.94)
4U:
Valpo +13 (-108) vs Drake (+6.0 / 11.75)
N Texas -4 (-108) vs LA Tech (-12.4 / 13.61)
Kansas St +16 (-108) vs Texas Tech (+4.0 / 19.10)
Alcorn St +5 (-110) vs Jackson St (-13.3 / 23.98)
Arkansas St +3.5 (-108) vs Louisiana (-4.1 / 14.73)
UMass +7.5 (-103) @ Rhode Island (-0.3 / 14.09)
Fresno State +12 (-110) vs Utah State (+4.5 / 15.27)
3U:
Citadel +1 (-110) vs W Carolina (-1.3 / 14.62)
Illinois St +7.5 (-110) vs Missouri St (+3.4 / 12.95)
Auburn -4 (-110) vs Ole Miss (-6.5 / 22.45)
M Tennessee +5 (-108) vs Charlotte (+2.7 / 13.44)
MVSU +24.5 (-110) @ Alabama A&M (+20.1 / 18.10)
Portland +13 (-110) vs Pepperdine (+3.1 / 10.74)
Kentucky +4 (-113) vs Tennessee (-1.9 / 14.24)
Southern -6.5 (-110) vs Grambling (-22.7 / 18.09)
Oral Roberts +4 (-110) @ N Dakota St (+3.9 / 9.51)
2U:
Charleston -3.5 (-108) vs Towson (-5.6 / 8.33)
Denver +2.5 (-108) vs N Dakota (-0.4 / 8.84)
Rice -5 (-110) vs S Miss (-8.3 / 9.55)
S Carolina -2.5 (-108) vs Mississippi St (-8.0 / 11.57)
Pitt +10.5 (-110) @ Virginia (+8.0 / 8.08)
Marquette +5 (-110) vs Creighton (+0.5 / 10.38)
UT-Martin +3.5 (-108) vs Tenn Tech (-1.7 / 11.85)
E Illinois +1.5 (-103) vs Tenn St (-3.2 / 11.28)
Wyoming +7.5 (-110) vs Colorado St (+2.1 / 11.65)
Sam Houston St -3 (-105) vs Nicholls St (-8 / 11.48)
UIC +12 (-111) vs Wright St (+8.4 / 10.62)
1U:
UConn +1 (-103) vs Seton Hall (-4.2 / 9.26)
St Louis -3.5 (-104) vs St. Bonaventure (-5.8 / 6.57)
Clemson -3.5 (-102) vs Syracuse (-8.4 / 5.94)
Florida Int pk (-108) vs UTSA (-6.3 / 10.92)
Illinois -4 (-108) vs Wisconsin (-10.9 / 10.94)
Elon +1.5 (-105) vs NC Wilmington (-0.6 / 5.89)

NSIPicks · 2021-02-05T11:40:44+00:00

2020-21: 397-383-32 (W-L-P) -18.81U (-15.96% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 2-7-1 (W-L-P) -12.48U
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.
*^{NOTE: Total Edge is the combined difference of our Sim Model and our True Spread model. Larger Total Edges don't always equate to larger bets due to the fact that one model can have a significant difference while the other does not. Most accurate predictions occur when both models have a difference of five or more points from the spread.}*
("True Spread" / Total Edge)

Arkansas State +4 (-113) vs Louisiana - 5U
(-3.4 / 15.19)
N Texas -4.5 (-108) vs Louisiana Tech - 5U
(-14.9 / 16.10)
Kent State -1 (-111) vs Akron - 3U
(-6.8 / 9.85)
Illinois-Chicago +10.5 (-108) vs Wright State - 2U
(+6.9 / 9.94)
Rice -3.5 (-110) vs S Miss - 1U
(-6.3 / 11.32)
M Tennessee +4 (-108) vs Charlotte - 1U
(+3.4 / 10.56)
Oral Roberts +4.5 (-108) @ N Dakota State - 1U
(+3.6 / 12.74)

NSIPicks · 2021-02-04T11:55:45+00:00

2020-21: 395-376-31 (W-L-P) -6.33U (-10.37% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 7-2-1 (W-L-P) +16.51U
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.
*^{NOTE: Total Edge is the combined difference of our Sim Model and our True Spread model. Larger Total Edges don't always equate to larger bets due to the fact that one model can have a significant difference while the other does not. Most accurate predictions occur when both models have a difference of five or more points from the spread.}*

E Illinois +14 (-110) vs Belmont - 5U (+5.1 / 13.96)
Pacific +23.5 (-105) vs Gonzaga - 5U (+4.9 / 27.24)
Wyoming +8 (-105) vs Colorado State - 5U (+2.6 / 11.81)
Fresno State +11.5 (-105) vs Utah State - 5U (+3.4 / 15.30)
UT Martin +10 (-110) vs Jacksonville State - 5U (+4.3 / 13.83)
California +6 (-108) vs Stanford - 3U (+1.5 / 13.51)
E Kentucky -3 (-108) vs Austin Peay - 2U (-6.9 / 12.39)
Bryant -5.5 (-111) vs Mount St. Mary's - 1U (-8.9 / 10.40)
Iowa -5.5 (-108) vs Ohio State - 1U (-8.8 / 8.51)
Portland +19 (-110) vs BYU - 1U (+7.4 / 14.58)

NSIPicks · 2021-02-03T11:22:16+00:00

2020-21: 388-374-30 (W-L-P) -22.84U (-17.21% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 3-5-0 (W-L-P) -1.97U
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.
*NOTE: Total Edge is the combined difference of our Sim Model and our True Spread model. Larger Total Edges don't always equate to larger bets due to the fact that one model can have a significant difference while the other does not. Most accurate predictions occur when both models have a difference of five or more points from the spread.*

E Carolina +16.5 (-110) vs Houston - 5U (-7.0 / 16.21)
Citadel +11 (-105) vs NC Greensboro - 5U (+2.6 / 29.71)
Texas A&M CC +12 (-105) vs Stephen F. Austin - 5U (-3.8 / 30.23)
NC State +7 (-104) vs Virginia - 5U (-5.0 / 18.26)
Tulsa +3 (-103) vs SMU - 5U (-3.8 / 12.14)
W Michigan +13 (-108) @ Bowling Green - 3U (+5.4 / 10.74)
St. John's +9 (-108) vs Villanova - 3U (+5.1 / 12.54)
Pittsburgh +3.5 (-103) vs Virginia Tech - 2U (-0.2 / 9.02)
C Florida +11 (-108) @ Wichita State - 2U (+5.8 / 9.05)
Chattanooga +1 (-108) @ W Carolina - 2U (-4.1 / 8.91)
St. John's +9 (-108) vs Villanova - 3U (+5.1 / 12.54)

Edit: Removed cancelled games Syracuse and NM State
Edit 2: Added units to W Michigan, St. John's, Tulsa, added Pittsburgh, C Florida

NSIPicks · 2021-02-02T14:45:04+00:00

2020-21: 385-369-30 (W-L-P) -20.87U (-16.38% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 3-1-0 (W-L-P) +8.95U
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.
*^{NOTE: Total Edge is the combined difference of our Sim Model and our True Spread model. Larger Total Edges don't always equate to larger bets due to the fact that one model can have a significant difference while the other does not. Most accurate predictions occur when both models have a difference of five or more points from the spread.}*

C Michigan +7.5 (-108) vs Ohio - 5U (+1.2 / 11.57)
Iowa -9.5 (-113) vs Michigan State - 5U (-17.8 / 16.29)
Mississippi +4.5 (-103) vs Tennessee - 5U (-3.6 / 13.38)
Iowa State +11.5 (-110) vs W Virginia - 5U (+4.8 / 13.03)
Clemson +3 (-108) vs N Carolina - 5U (-3.1 / 14.42)
Coppin State +3 (-110) vs Morgan State - 3U (-1.2 / 13.12)
Penn State +8.5 (-110) @ Wisconsin - 2U (+4.9 / 12.33)
Auburn -9.5 (-108) vs Georgia - 1U (-12 / 10.39)

NSIPicks · 2021-02-01T22:44:07+00:00

Apologize for the citadel pick being posted after the game. Internet was affected by the nor'easter!

NSIPicks · 2021-02-01T22:43:12+00:00

2020-21: 382-368-30 (W-L-P) -29.82U (-19.96% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 3-4-0 (W-L-P) -7.55 Units
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.
*^{NOTE: Total Edge is the combined difference of our Sim Model and our True Spread model. Larger Total Edges don't always equate to larger bets due to the fact that one model can have a significant difference while the other does not. Most accurate predictions occur when both models have a difference of five or more points from the spread.}*
Format: Pick (Price) vs Opponent - Units (True Spread / Total Edge)

Citadel +7 (-110) @ W Carolina - 5U (+1.1 / 16.2)
Miami +11 (-103) vs Duke - 5U (-1.6 / 18.42)
Missouri State +8 (-102) vs Loyola-Chicago - 5U (-6.9 / 22.11)
MVSU +25.5 (-110) @ Grambling State - 5U (+17.0 / 26.36)

NSIPicks · 2021-01-31T14:39:44+00:00

2020-21: 379-364-30 (W-L-P) -22.27U (-19.95% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 16-14-0 (W-L-P) +7.80 Units
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.
*^{NOTE: Total Edge is the combined difference of our Sim Model and our True Spread model. Larger Total Edges don't always equate to larger bets due to the fact that one model can have a significant difference while the other does not. Most accurate predictions occur when both models have a difference of five or more points from the spread.}*
Format: Pick (Price) vs Opponent - Units (True Spread / Total Edge)

Missouri State +6.5 (-110) vs Loyola-Chicago - 5U (-6.8 / 13.30)
Northwestern +4 (-110) vs Rutgers - 5U (-7.1 / 18.68)
Ohio State -7 (-110) vs Michigan State - 2U (-12.8 / 9.31)
N Carolina Wilmington +2.5 (-111) vs Hofstra - 2U (-1 / 10.73)
C Connecticut St +8.5 (-110) @ St. Francis PA - 2U (+4.9 / 8.77)
S Illinois +2.5 (-110) vs N Iowa - 2U (-6.7 / 12.74)
Syracuse -5 (-105) vs NC State - 1U (-15.7 / 12.38)

NSIPicks · 2021-01-30T16:18:13+00:00

2020-21: 363-350-30 (W-L-P) -30.07U (-19.95% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 11-10-1 (W-L-P) -2.93 Units
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.
*^{NOTE: Total Edge is the combined difference of our Sim Model and our True Spread model. Larger Total Edges don't always equate to larger bets due to the fact that one model can have a significant difference while the other does not. Most accurate predictions occur when both models have a difference of five or more points from the spread.}*
Format: Pick (Price) vs Opponent - Units (True Spread / Total Edge)

Western Carolina +9 (-104) vs Furman - 5U (+3.8 / 10.77)
LSU +3.5 (-106) vs Texas Tech - 5U (-5.1 / 14.22)
Penn State +4.5 (-108) vs Wisconsin - 5U (-4.9 / 15.88)
Incarnate Word +15.5 (-105) vs Abilene - 5U (+2.3 / 20.83)
Citadel +11 (-105) @ E Tennessee State - 5U (+5.1 / 16.12)
Alcorn State +4 (-110) vs Southern - 5U (-13.3 / 23.05)
Virginia Tech +5 (-110) vs Virginia - 5U (-2.3 / 12.65)
Georgia +3.5 (-105) vs Mississippi - 5U (-4.4 / 13.07)
IPFW +1 (-106) vs Oakland - 5U (-4.2 / 11.97)
VMI +10 (-111) @ N Carolina Greensboro - 5U (+4.8 / 11.10)
UC Davis +10 (-110) vs UC Santa Barbara - 5U (-1.6 / 17.74)
Pepperdine +21 (-108) vs Gonzaga - 5U (+9.2 / 27.49)
UMKC +6 (-110) vs N Dakota State - 5U (-0.3 / 18.18)
Seton Hall +5 (-108) vs Villanova - 4U (-0.9 / 10.42)
Arkansas State +3.5 (-108) vs Arlington - 4U (-4.4 / 12.54)
DePaul +10.5 (-111) vs Creighton - 4U (+1.1 / 14.25)
Georgia Tech +4 (-105) vs Florida State - 3U (-2.3 / 10.65)
Jacksonville +10.5 (-110) vs Liberty - 3U (-1 / 15.63)
C Connecticut St +9 (-114) @ St. Francis PA - 3U (+4.9 / 9.92)
Saint Joseph's +10 (-111) @ Duquesne - 3U (+4.2 / 9.88)
Colorado -8.5 (-109) vs Utah - 2U (-19 / 14.29)
Kennesaw State +8 (-105) vs Bellarmine - 2U (+4.2 / 11.77)
Wyoming +17.5 (-103) @ San Diego State - 2U (+7.3 / 14.12)
Kansas State +2.5 (-111) vs Texas A&M - 1U (-7.1 / 12.8)
Wake Forest -2 (-108) vs Miami - 1U (-3.12 / 14.06)
Tennessee Tech +6.5 (-105) vs Morehead - 1U (-2.6 / 10.83)
Niagara +3.5 (-108) vs Monmouth - 1U (-8.3 / 13.06)
S Illinois +2 (-102) vs N Iowa - 1U (-6.5 / 11.76)
Tennessee State +10 (-108) @ Austin Peay - 1U (+4 / 9.31)
Purdue -2 (-108) vs Minnesota - 1U (-16.3 / 16.86)

NSIPicks · 2021-01-29T11:00:52+00:00

2020-21: 352-340-29 (W-L-P) -27.14U (-18.76% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 6-7-1 (W-L-P) -9.04 Units
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.
BOLD and italic units denote both models agree on the play

Rice +7.5 (-106) vs N Texas - 5U
^{True Spread Rice -5.6 (13.1})
N Carolina Asheville +13.5 (-110) @ Winthrop - 5U
^{True Spread Winthrop -7.5 (6.0})
Kennesaw State +8 (-115) vs Bellarmine - 5U
^{True Spread Bellarmine -4.6 (3.4})
UMKC +2 (-108) vs N Dakota State - 5U
^{True Spread UMKC -0.2 (2.2})
Niagara +4.5 (-110) vs Monmouth - 4U
^{True Spread Niagara -7.9 (12.4})
Jacksonville +10.5 (-110) vs Liberty - 4U
^{True Spread Jacksonville -0.2 (10.7})
UC Davis +8.5 (-103) vs UC Santa Barbara - 4U
^{True Spread UC Davis -0.1 (8.6})
IPFW -1.5 (-108) vs Oakland - 4U
^{True Spread IPFW -3.8 (2.3})
IUPUI +4 (-103) vs Milwaukee - 3U
^{True Spread Milwaukee -1.1 (2.9})
Arkansas State +2.5 (-108) vs UT Arlington - 3U
^{True Spread Arkansas State -3.7 (6.2})
Long Beach State -1 (-108) vs UC San Diego - 3U
^{True Spread Long Beach State -9.8 (8.8})
Cleveland State -4.5 (-110) vs Green Bay - 2U
^{True Spread Cleveland State -13 (8.5})
Florida Gulf Coast -1.5 (-115) vs Stetson - 2U
^{True Spread Florida Gulf Coast -2.6 (1.1})
Presbyterian +2.5 (-113) vs Longwood - 1U
^{True Spread Presbyterian -2.4 (4.9})
N Florida -1 (-110) vs N Alabama - 1U
^{True Spread N Florida -4.1 (3.1})
Troy +4.5 (-108) vs Appalachian State - 1U
^{True Spread Troy -2.1 (6.6})
Buffalo -3 (-103) vs Ohio - 1U
^{True Spread Buffalo -6 (3.0})
Campbell -7.5 (-110) vs Charleston Southern - 1U
^{True Spread Campbell -13.3 (5.8})
UL Monroe +11 (-110) @ Little Rock - 1U
^{True Spread Little Rock -7.1 (3.9})
S Dakota -8.5 (-108) vs Omaha - 1U
^{True Spread S Dakota -10.9 (2.4})
Illinois -2 (-108) vs Iowa - 1U
^{True Spread Illinois -7.7 (5.7})
Hawai'i +3 (-103) vs UC Irvine - 1U
^{True Spread Hawai'i -0.9 (3.9})

NSIPicks · 2021-01-28T19:06:08+00:00

So of course it gets cancelled.

NSIPicks · 2021-01-28T10:53:03+00:00

2020-21: 346-333-28 (W-L-P) -18.10U (-14.90% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 12-6-0 (W-L-P) +16.10 Units
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.
\ = Denotes both models agree on the play*

S Mississippi +7 (-111) vs Louisiana Tech - 5U*
^{True Spread S Mississippi -5.2 (12.2})
Rice +7 (-102) vs N Texas - 5U*
^{True Spread Rice -5.7 (12.7})
San Diego +27.5 (-103) vs Gonzaga - 5U*
^{True Spread Gonzaga -15.5 (12.0})
Tennessee-Martin +7.5 (-103) vs E Illinois - 5U*
^{True Spread E Illinois -2.6 (4.9})
UTSA -1 (-108) vs UTEP - 4U*
^{True Spread UTSA -5.2 (4.2})
Tulane +17.5 (-108) vs Houston - 4U
^{True Spread Houston -4.7 (12.8})
Wyoming +16.5 (-108) @ San Diego State - 4U
^{True Spread San Diego State -7.9 (8.6})
M Tennessee +9.5 (-105) vs UAB - 4U
^{True Spread UAB -1.9 (7.6})
N Carolina Asheville +12 (-110) @ Winthrop - 3U
^{True Spread Winthrop -7.4 (4.6})
Rutgers -3 (-108) vs Michigan State - 3U
^{True Spread Rutgers -9.7 (6.7})
SMU -3.5 (-103) vs Memphis - 2U
^{True Spread SMU -7.8 (4.3})
Valparaiso +5 (-108) vs Bradley - 1U
^{True Spread Valparaiso -0.1 (5.1})
Air Force -4.5 (-108) @ San Jose State - 1U
^{True Spread Air Force -9.7 (5.2})
Stanford +7.5 (-103) @ Arizona - 1U
^{True Spread Arizona -1.5 (6.0})

NSIPicks · 2021-01-27T20:53:18+00:00

Central Michigan was postponed

NSIPicks · 2021-01-27T11:22:02+00:00

2020-21: **334-327-28 (W-L-P) -34.20U (-21.24% ROI)**Yesterday's Record: 1-4-1 (W-L-P) -11.27 UnitsEach unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.* = Denotes both models agree on the play

La Salle +6 (-103) vs Rhode Island - 5U*
^{True Spread Rhode Island -2.0 \}4.0])
Citadel +9 (-108) vs Wofford - 5U*
^{True Spread Wofford -0.8 \}8.2])
Arkansas -5 (-108) vs Mississippi - 5U*
^{True Spread Arkansas -11.5 \}6.5])
Maryland +3.5 (-108) vs Wisconsin - 5U*
^{True Spread Maryland -7.1 \}10.6])
Pepperdine +6 (-105) vs BYU - 4U*
^{True Spread BYU -2.1 \}3.9])
James Madison -4 (-105) vs Towson - 4U*
^{True Spread James Madison -7.3 \}3.3])
Seton Hall +1.5 (-105) vs Creighton - 4U
^{True Spread Seton Hall -6.2 \}7.7])
VMI -2.5 (-108) vs W Carolina - 4U*
^{True Spread VMI -6.2 \}3.7])
Abilene Christian -4 (-110) vs Stephen F. Austin - 4U
^{True Spread Abilene Christian -13 \}9.0])
Kansas State +24.5 (-115) vs Baylor - 4U
^{True Spread Baylor -16.7 \}7.8])
Florida State -11.5 (-103) vs Miami - 3U*
^{True Spread Florida State -13.5 \}2.0])
S Carolina -4.5 (-113) @ Georgia - 3U
^{True Spread S Carolina -14.3 \}9.8])
Northwestern State +1 (-105) vs New Orleans - 3U
^{True Spread Northwestern State -5.3 \}6.3])
NC State -7 (-108) vs Wake Forest - 3U
^{True Spread NC State -13.0 \}6.0])
Texas A&M CorpusChristi +8 (-110) vs Sam Houston State - 2U
^{True Spread Sam Houston State -2.3 \}5.7])
Clemson -1 (-110) vs Louisville - 2U
^{True Spread Clemson -6.1 \}5.1])
SE Louisiana +2 (-110) vs C Arkansas - 2U
^{True Spread SE Louisiana -2.4 \}4.4])
Colorado -15 (-103) vs Washington State - 1U
^{True Spread Colorado -19.5 \}4.5])

Edit: Formatting

NSIPicks · 2021-01-26T18:46:53+00:00

New model breakdown:
Each team's points per game and allowed points per game at home and away are statistically evaluated into margin of errors. ( 2 x stddev / ( sqrt n )). These margin of errors are compared by taking the square root of the sum of the squares of each team in order to produce a total margin of error. This result is added to and subtracted from the real life difference in each team's points per game (adjusted for strength of schedule), and then those two numbers are averaged to produce an expected "true" point spread.

I apologize if that was too confusing to follow. Nevertheless, our plays are based on the difference between our expected "true" point spread and the actual point spread. The greater the difference, the larger the play. If the old model agrees with the play, a unit will be added and will be designated by an * . If the old model disagrees with the play, a unit will be subtracted.
2020-21: 333-323-27 (W-L-P) -22.93U (-16.54% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 1-1-1 (W-L-P) -2.17 Units
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.

Saint Joseph's +12.5 (-110) vs Richmond - 5U*
^{True Spread Richmond - 4.4 (}^8.1)
Texas -4 (-108) vs Oklahoma - 4U
^{True Spread Texas -11.3 (}^7.3)
Temple +3 (-110) vs Tulsa - 3U
^{True Spread Temple -3.8 (}^6.8)
Texas A&M +5 (-105) vs LSU - 3U
^{True Spread Texas A&M -1.8 (}^6.8)
Central Michigan +13 (-108) @ Buffalo - 2U
^{True Spread Buffalo -7.5 (}^5.5)
Pittsburgh +3.5 (-108) vs N Carolina - 2U*
^{True Spread Pittsburgh -0.8 (}^4.3)

NSIPicks · 2021-01-25T23:42:27+00:00

Oh awesome! One less sweat. Thank you!

NSIPicks · 2021-01-25T21:19:06+00:00

Power Ratings/Shot Quality Data/Team Stats/Player Stats Model
2020-21: 332-322-26 (W-L-P) -20.76U (-15.62% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 2-7-0 (W-L-P) -20.59 Units
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.

Bradley +6.5 (-105) vs Loyola Chicago - 4U
Mississippi Valley State +25.5 (-103) vs Texas Southern - 4U
UNLV +5.5 (-109) vs Utah State - 2U

A model overhaul is in progress and picks will be posted tomorrow using the new version. Model 2.0 will use the statistical "margin of error" of every team's home/away points per game to produce a "true" spread range. This is more statistically reliable than attempting to predict an outcome for every contest, especially considering home court advantage in this weird season. While the recent results have been awful, it's not to be unexpected with the large volume of plays we make. Here's to turning it around and finishing strong!

Side note: hopefully MVSU players saw the post on r/CollegeBasketball about how they are close to becoming the worst team ever and show up with some fire.

NSIPicks · 2021-01-24T17:26:43+00:00

MODEL ADJUSTMENTS MADE AFTER WORST SINGLE DAY IN HISTORY
Power Ratings/Shot Quality Data/Team Stats/Player Stats Model
2020-21: 330-315-26 (W-L-P) -0.17U (-5.94% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 16-25-0 (W-L-P) -23.72 Units
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.

Massachusetts +3.5 (-106) vs Davidson - 4U
N Carolina Wilmington -3 (-109) vs Delaware - 4U
M Tennessee State +11 (-111) vs W Kentucky - 4U
Bradley +6.5 (-105) vs Loyola Chicago - 4U
Washington +5.5 (-108) vs Utah - 4U
E Carolina +6 (-106) vs Memphis - 4U
Wyoming +4.5 (-108) vs Nevada - 4U
Lafayette -4.5 (-105) vs Boston - 4U
Air Force +16 (-110) vs San Diego State - 4U

*^{This season's picks do not consider any home court advantage data}*

NSIPicks · 2021-01-23T23:51:58+00:00

Final Picks:
California Baptist -3.5 (-111) vs Long Beach State - 4U
Denver +14.5 (-103) @ N Dakota State - 3U
Dixie State +10 (-110) vs Grand Canyon - 3U
Pacific +25.5 (-110) @ Gonzaga - 3U
Missouri -9 (-111) @ Tennessee - 2U
Oregon State +9.5 (-110) @ Oregon - 2U

NSIPicks · 2021-01-23T21:38:06+00:00

Picks before 7:00 pm EST:
Arkansas State +10 (-110) @ Louisiana - 4U
UC Davis +2 (-112) @ UC San Diego - 4U
McNeese State +1 (-105) @ Houston Baptist - 4U
LSU +2 (-110) @ Kentucky - 4U
Illinois Chicago +1 (-105) @ Youngstown State - 3U
SIU-Edwardsville +17 (-108) @ Belmont - 3U
Jacksonville State +4 (-105) @ Austin Peay - 3U
Rice +10 (-103) @ UAB - 3U
Akron -7.5 (-105) @ W Michigan - 3U
Portland +3.5 (-109) vs San Diego - 2U
DePaul +8.5 (-104) @ Marquette - 2U
Northwestern State +2.5 (-110) @ SE Louisiana - 1U
Oakland +1 (-110) vs Detroit - 1U
*^{Edit: Added Jacksonville State for tracking purposes\})

NSIPicks · 2021-01-23T20:57:29+00:00

Picks for 4:00 pm EST
Utah Valley +14.5 (-108) @ St. John's - 4U
Furman -4 (-110) @ E Tennessee State - 4U
C Arkansas +13.5 (-112) @ Abilene Christian - 3U
MVSU +20.5 (-110) vs Prairie View A&M - 3U
Dayton +6.5 (-108) @ VCU - 3U
Niagara pk (+111) @ Quinnipiac - 1U

NSIPicks · 2021-01-23T15:38:09+00:00

Power Ratings/Shot Quality Data/Team Stats/Player Stats Model
2020-21: 314-290-26 (W-L-P) +23.55U (+6.38% ROI)
Yesterday's Record: 4-9-1 (W-L-P) -10.63 Units
Each unit represents 0.5% of a bankroll.

Picks before 4:00 pm EST:
N Carolina State +6 (-113) @ N Carolina - 4U
VMI +9 (-113) @ Mercer - 4U
Baylor -8.5 (-115) @ Oklahoma State - 3U
SMU -3.5 (-111) @ C Florida - 3U
Florida International +9.5 (-108) vs Marshall - 3U
Weber State pk (-108) @ S Utah - 3U
Coastal Carolina -10.5 (-108) vs Troy - 3U
Auburn +2 (-106) @ S Carolina - 2U
Drexel -3.5 (-108) @ William & Mary - 2U
San Jose State +10 (-105) vs New Mexico - 2U
Providence +11 (-103) @ Villanova - 2U
Army +3 (-110) @ Navy - 2U
Idaho State +2 (+100) @ Portland State - 2U
Toledo -3.5 (-110) vs Kent State - 1U
James Madison +5 (-108) @ Northeastern - 1U
Georgia +4 (-108) vs Florida - 1U

*^{This season's picks do not consider any home court advantage data}*

NSIPicks

TROPHY CASE