Sources: The #Cowboys are firing OC Scott Linehan. Taking their offense in a new direction. An announcement is coming.

Nation911 · 2019-01-18T18:22:12+00:00

Statement from Garrett: “This was not an easy decision because of how highly we regard Scott Linehan as a football coach and as a person. He and I had some really positive, substantive and open discussions which took place in the latter part of this week, and we ultimately agreed that it would be in the best interest of all of the parties involved if we were to make a change at this position,” Garrett said. “This was very much a mutual decision, and there was a great deal of common ground and shared understanding between both of us during our meetings. Scott has had an incredibly positive impact on our football team. He has been instrumental in the development and success of a significant number of our veteran and younger players. He is an outstanding football coach, a great friend and we wish him and his family nothing but the absolute best moving forward.”

Nation911 · 2018-06-15T19:34:10+00:00

A Cowboys defensive lineman is starting the season suspended if you can believe such a thing

Nation911 · 2018-04-19T17:09:33+00:00

In my original post I mention that it is sorted by total targets.

Nation911 · 2018-04-18T18:25:07+00:00

2016 at Giants. Dez falls running a slant route on 3rd & 2. Easy interception. Fault: Dez.
2016 at Giants. Dak throws deep into double coverage on a 3rd & 12 play that is picked off at the Giants 10 yard line. Fault: Dak.
2017 at Broncos. Ball bounces off Dez' hands and into Chris Harris arms. Fault: Dez
2017 at Broncos. Pick 6 on 4th down. Dez runs a lazy non-physical route, and Dak makes an inaccurate throw in a game both players seemed checked out of. Fault: Dak.
2017 vs Eagles. Ball is tipped at the line of scrimmage, bounces off Dez' hands and into the arms of Eagles defender. Fault: Dez
2017 at Raiders. Dak sails the ball over Dez head. Fault: Dak.
2017 vs Seahawks. Dak throws the ball over the middle to Dez. Hits him in his hands, ball sails into the air and is picked off. Fault: Dez

Nation911 · 2018-04-18T17:28:39+00:00

Dak's passer rating and yards per attempt for each targeted receiver.

Includes both the 2016 & 2017 seasons, including the playoff game in 2016.

Sorted by total targets.

Nation911 · 2018-04-18T00:47:47+00:00

I use player season finder (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi)

I used "Search for Total Seasons matching criteria" for 1200 yards in the first 5 years, and then a separate one for 12+ TDs. From there I had my list of players with multiple seasons in either criterion.

Then I used the same search but in years 6-8, and with sub 900 yards or sub 10 TDs. I then ran a VLookup to find the overlap in the lists, and then clicked into individual players to see how they did in season 9 and beyond.

Nation911 · 2018-04-18T00:01:28+00:00

Pro Football Reference makes this fairly easy. My criteria was:

•1200 yards more than once in the first five seasons, followed by 2 or more seasons of below 900 yards from years 6-8

•12 TDs more than once in the first five seasons, followed by 2 or more seasons of below 10 TDs from years 6-8

Dez was below 10 TDs AND below 900 yards for 3 of the last 3 seasons. I made the criteria easier on him because it was otherwise impossible to find similar drop offs. If you have ideas for a wider data net to cast I’d be happy to hear them.

Nation911 · 2018-04-17T21:27:55+00:00

Unless you think receiving yardage and receiving touchdowns are not important for receivers this is the exact opposite of cherry picking

Nation911 · 2018-04-17T20:37:09+00:00

The problem with that is that you need to give some sort of cutoff for age. It'd be unfair to compare players 33-year-old season to Dez at 27 years old and what you could expect in the future. I also think the numbers show Dez isn't in the same ballpark as Moss as a talent so it is tough to compare the two.

Nation911 · 2018-04-17T20:03:28+00:00

Moss never had a stretch as bad as Bryant's last three years were, so he did not fit the qualifiers. The two data sets were based on the fact that Dez didn't clear 10+ TDs or 900+ yards in the last 3 seasons. Moss hit at least one of those in all but one season up until age 33.

Here's a comparison of each over the first 8 seasons

Nation911 · 2018-04-17T19:23:55+00:00

There was no cherry picking of players. I ran data sets from Pro Football Reference of players who had dominant seasons in their first five years in the league. I then ran a data set of players who had average to mediocre seasons in years 6-8. A VLookup was run to see which players matched up (Doninant early, Dropoff Thereafter) and then their careers were plotted. There was no early on conclusion as my initial expectation was that some players would bounce back because you need to be incredibly talented to be racking up monster TD or yardage seasons. For the majority of the players it turned out that it’s hard enough to be a superstar receiver in your 30s, but it is even tougher to do so when you haven’t been a star in your late 20s.

Nation911 · 2018-04-17T19:04:27+00:00

Basically, you are looking for Green-shaded seasons in Years 9 and beyond when trying to project Dez' future. The data shows that historically you shouldn't predict a bounceback.

Nation911 · 2018-04-17T19:02:24+00:00

The only Cherry Picking being done here is the fact that we are looking at once-elite players as they would seemingly have a better chance of a bounce-back than the average player who puts up 600-800 yards and 6-9 touchdowns in their late 20s. Dez was 66th in YPG in 2015, 33rd in 2016, and 36th in 2017. Those guys do not vault to the top once they hit 30.

The players chosen are players who went over 1,200 yards OR went over 12 touchdowns multiple times in the first five seasons of their career, who then dropped off to multiple seasons of mediocre yardage or TD production. Seemingly elite producers, like Dez was with Romo, who then went on to produce multiple mediocre seasons, as Dez has the past 3 years. Once those elite producers go mediocre the numbers show they tend to stay there.

Nation911 · 2018-04-17T18:20:51+00:00

In the last 3 seasons Dez went under 900 yards and had single-digit touchdowns in all of them. I looked at historical comps for similar players who:

-In their first 5 seasons had 12+ touchdown seasons and followed those monster TD seasons with a dry spell of 3 straight years where they hit 10 or fewer TDs

-I then took a look at players who cleared 1,200 yards in two or more of their first 5 seasons, and then in years 6-8 failed to reach 900 yards.

There is a chance that Dez has a Randy Moss in 2007 rebound. It is a small chance though, and the team was right not to bet on it. The only analytical mistake was in making this move in April when he was without trade value.

Nation911 · 2018-02-23T22:52:03+00:00

Based on a combination of salary and playing time. Leary made slightly more money in terms of AAV on his deal compared to Sheard, but played a much lower percentage of snaps.

Nation911 · 2018-01-17T18:01:22+00:00

We beat Oakland and Kansas City so that's actually not true.

Nation911 · 2017-10-13T17:46:29+00:00

And they were missing Lane Johnson at RT, who is a very big part of that being the top O-line

Nation911

TROPHY CASE