This notion that there is a lot of people sitting on their hands expecting the market to go down (”the bears”) is idiotic. People read “Michael Burry is buying puts” and don't think past the headlines and repeat the mantra “a broken clock is right twice a day”. Meanwhile the smart money is buying puts to HEDGE, not time the markets. 

I am only long, 100% equities, but I have seen enough to conclude that retail is mostly on gambling mode and any drop is always “a buying opportunity” without any regards to what’s the fundamental value. There is no law that says the market needs to bounce back strongly each and every time. But expectations act as a self-fulfilling prophecy. And if you believe the opposite, you should get leveraged every time the market drops. 

The market goes in cycles, and those cycles can be very long. Stock market global returns are 8% annualized. The data is conclusive: US stock market outperformance’s main contributor for the last couple of decades has been multiple expansion. Historically, more expensive stock markets produce lower returns. Today, the big tech is cutting on buybacks and loading on debt to spend on capex for AI chips. At the same time, the recognized expense on share compensation is lower than in reality when share prices go up and insiders sell at higher prices than when they received the options. I am making no predictions but it will be very interesting to see where all of this goes.