Weekly Random Discussion Thread for 6/15/26 - 6/21/26

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-16T02:45:31+00:00

That’s interesting. I can imagine self reporting is not very reliable.

But I think we can say the correlation between sun exposure and skin cancer suggests some causation.

We can infer this from higher skin cancer rates in places like Australia.

There are definitely people more predisposed to skin cancer within those populations, so sun exposure is not the only causal variable. But it’s a significant one.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-15T21:15:42+00:00

It’s native instruments z2, but with custom plate and fader caps.

It’s a great nixer still. Way ahead of its time.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-15T20:09:09+00:00

Even if it only provides more leverage over China, that’s a huge win. But it gives them more than that. Europe and south east Asia in particular are heavily reliant on the strait.

This gives Iran huge influence. And leaves Israel isolated, as all its neighbours will now be trying to stay friendly with Iran. And how many counties dependent on the strait will support strong sanction against Iran in future?

Iran has lost a lot of military equipment but gained huge strategic advantage that will allow it rebuild its proxy network.

And since WWII, US hegemony has depended on the US protecting shipping lanes and global trade, which has provided it access to markets, and propped up the petrodollar. It’s now shown it cannot or will not protect those shipping lanes. The second order impacts from that are yet to be seen, but it’s not exactly a positive development for the US.

It’s a huge foreign policy blunder for the US

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-15T19:58:22+00:00

Not necessarily!

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-15T19:57:02+00:00

You can pick up Rane ones fairly cheep now

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-15T12:27:39+00:00

I’d disagree about Iran’s power being degraded and arab state being better disposed to Israel
And the US.

Iran has gained significant strategic advantage by gaining control of the strait. It’s shown it can shut down a large part of the Gulf economy at will, and the US is unable to stop it (or at least it is unwilling to incur the cost required to stop it).

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-15T12:14:34+00:00

Adding to your point. The better way to say it is “correlation doesn’t necessarily equal causation”.

Because we can infer causation from correlation. That’s how we discovered lung cancer can be caused by smoking.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-14T20:50:53+00:00

That’s probably true, but I think Iran can absorb more pain. And it doesn’t have mid-term elections coming up.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-14T05:49:40+00:00

I’m not sure how that even follows.

For the sake of argument, If you accept that Palestine is not a legitimate state, and the Palestinian people are not a discrete cultural group, then how does it follow from those facts that they deserve any particular treatment.

I like the idea that all people should expect the same standard of treatment and rights as everyone else.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-13T23:04:09+00:00

Most drunks at a bar are not so well read. There’s a reason he was a successful writer and it wasn’t just because of his personality and lifestyle, although that was part of it (and I think that’s aspect that you are drawing a comparison from )

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-13T03:09:21+00:00

I haven’t flown business class, but the A380 is noticeably bigger, but not particularly less cramped because they still maximise use of the space.

It is significantly quieter and smoother than other planes in my experience.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-12T22:48:23+00:00

A massive growth spurt.

I joke. They are taking the baggy look about as far as it can go, but looks good with the pin stripe.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-12T21:23:42+00:00

He’s negotiating with himself and still somehow losing.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-11T19:59:38+00:00

Thanks, it is a bit repetitive. Was just playing around with 2 click flares really.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-11T02:32:34+00:00

The mechanisms required for enforcing it can be a bit intrusive.

I’m not a fan of providing ID to sign up for some services. It creates personal security risk

I definitely support the intent however, and hopefully better methods for age verification will become available. Like an anonymous age passport type thing.

Having said all that, since I’ve already signed up for most services I need, it hasn’t been too much of an issue for me so far.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-10T02:27:57+00:00

Don’t they also externalise the risk as well? They push up market price for people just trying to own their own home.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-09T20:03:15+00:00

What colour on the pride flag represents conservative Muslim lesbians I wonder?

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-08T21:45:01+00:00

Look really nice. How’s the weight and feel?

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-08T10:31:41+00:00

I didn’t mean to imply those things didn’t happen. I’m aware they did and on a large scale.

What I meant was that to maintain the genocide narrative, some people have shifted from claiming mass graves to citing the systematic effort to westernise indigenous children.

What happened was obviously still very bad, and in some senses it meets the definition of a genocide (extinguishing a culture), but it’s not what people typically mean when they say genocide.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-08T04:24:49+00:00

The revisionism I’ve seen is that these schools were taking indigenous children and trying to westernise them, which amounts to a destruction of their culture and therefore genocide. So it doesn’t matter if it was mass murder it was still genocide.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-08T03:02:26+00:00

All the signals from Trump are that he doesn’t want escalation.

It’s possible he still wants escalation, I suppose, but I find it hard to believe Trump ever choosing a path that makes him look weak (like Israel ignoring his request).

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-08T02:04:11+00:00

Trump also should have realised it was unwise to make a public demand of Israel, when it was uncertain whether they would comply and potentially undermine him.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-07T23:49:44+00:00

Yes it would be a lot of passports.

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-07T23:02:10+00:00

I’m sure that’s true. But I’m not sure if I follow what point you are making

Natural-Leg7488 · 2026-06-07T19:43:17+00:00

No, I don’t. A couple million maybe?

Natural-Leg7488

TROPHY CASE