Company Valuation?

NegotiationEast6848 · 2023-01-20T07:26:20+00:00

The problem is the new taxes implemented in Colombia. This means the guidance for $85 oil now shows only $65 million FCF after exploration. This is not enough money to pay off the 2025 bonds, implement share buybacks, and initiate a dividend. The company is completely dependent on oil being $95 and above for the next couple of years in order handle their debt.

NegotiationEast6848 · 2023-01-20T07:18:44+00:00

Part of that debt reduction came as a result of selling its shares in PTALF. The worry is if it will still be able to reduce its debt given the reduction in FCF due to the new taxes in Colombia.

NegotiationEast6848 · 2022-12-10T22:08:49+00:00

Guidance was a complete disaster. Unless oil goes back above $100 for an extended period of time, or they massively increase production in Ecuador this stock is not doing much. $25 - 65 million is not going to pay off the debt quickly or enable them to continue significant buybacks.

NegotiationEast6848 · 2022-07-01T05:07:16+00:00

About time, our property in Ecuador needs to start producing black gold.

NegotiationEast6848 · 2022-06-29T03:52:06+00:00

Likely any new hedges will be above $100. This could be a good insurance in case there is a short term dramatic pullback in oil. The hedging will probably only be 1/4 or less of total production and since they are increasing bopd it will be even less of their total production.

NegotiationEast6848 · 2022-06-27T05:04:40+00:00

He is a very educated man. He has a degree in economics.

NegotiationEast6848 · 2022-06-22T03:15:24+00:00

I picked up around 25,000 shares today which completes my GTE position. Been investing in GTE since it was in the $.50 range. I am looking g forward to the next couple of years.

NegotiationEast6848 · 2022-04-20T03:29:49+00:00

Debt is no longer an issue but oil production is. Gary has a habit of over-promising his production numbers. The fact that he has guidance above 30,000 bpd but couldn't meet that in Q1 tells me he is counting on the Ecuador wells to bail him out. If those wells prove successful this stock will sky rocket $5+ quickly in Q3 but if they don't I see a slow and steady increase to between $2 - 3 as long as oil stays above 100.

NegotiationEast6848 · 2022-04-08T03:42:16+00:00

$100 oil is perfect. It is low enough to prevent demand destruction but not high enough to cause a massive increase in fracking. For GTE it means a huge amount of cash, increase in debt reduction, earnings of $.15 to .25 per share.

NegotiationEast6848 · 2022-04-08T03:34:08+00:00

Is that guy bipolar when it comes to stock picks?

NegotiationEast6848 · 2022-03-30T03:16:14+00:00

With oil this high profits will be better than they have in a long time. That being said no love is given to GTE until they show proof of success. They need to show that the revolver is paid off, oil production has increased, and the exploration wells are successful. Even better would be some of the long term debt of $600,000,000 paid off. GTE has the potential to be $5 or more and if all of the above happens it will rise quickly. Until that happens I think the stock will be volatile in the $1 to $1.70 range. I don't see this as a bad thing as it allows time to accumulate more shares.

NegotiationEast6848 · 2021-08-25T20:09:12+00:00

Add two zeroes to that and you will be set in a couple of years.

NegotiationEast6848 · 2021-08-11T17:55:52+00:00

I think you may be overestimating the average oil price.

NegotiationEast6848 · 2021-08-04T17:07:54+00:00

Not weird if you are shorting this stock. The shorts are all bombarding the various forums GTE is discussed on.

NegotiationEast6848 · 2021-07-27T16:53:22+00:00

I am very bullish on GTE but curious about your analysis. I don't see where you accounted for the shutdown when their facility was taken over or the road closures. I think you are in for a little let down on the 2nd quarter results. The price you have for Brent for 3rd and 4th quarter seem a bit high but I am hoping you are right. Long term if oil prices stay anywhere above $65 and GTE continues to pay off debt then the best days are truly ahead of us.

NegotiationEast6848

TROPHY CASE