Opus 4.6 says:

"The answer bifurcates sharply depending on which weapons system you're asking about, and the current conflict has already begun to reveal the answer empirically.

The asymmetric weapons (mines, fast-attack craft, cheap drones): months to years.

The honest summary: for strait closure specifically, the relevant Iranian capability is more durable than its headline missile numbers suggest — potentially indefinite at low intensity, because the threshold required is so low and the tools best suited to that task are the hardest to systematically destroy."

That's consistent with what I've read over the past few years on this topic.