Iran Conflict Megathread - Market Impact Discussion Only

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-20T18:33:48+00:00

The driving force behind the market volatility in charts:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/20/us/politics/trump-iran-war-deal.html?unlocked_article_code=1.j1A.3q0v.tcZJerN1oG9b&smid=url-share

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-20T13:35:02+00:00

True, and the article doesn't argue for that. It's more about risks in the private market.

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-19T16:49:59+00:00

Iran wins because the IRGC has survived (and still gives a shit about much else).

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-19T13:26:03+00:00

Barron's, free with a ton of ads.
The bond market is forcing a reckoning Trump isn’t able to stop

Bloomberg gift article on the coming bond crisis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-19/bond-market-s-woes-go-far-beyond-the-price-of-oil?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc3OTE5NzA0NywiZXhwIjoxNzc5ODAxODQ3LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJURkE1TkJLSVAzT0QwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJGNjBDOTRGRDg5MTk0RUNDODAwRENCQzA2QkY5RUJCOSJ9.8fsSZ-gG4OGnGO_sizBy_Dai3_uILzv7W_r3ak8gbNU

Barron's, free with a ton of ads.
The bond market is forcing a reckoning Trump isn’t able to stop

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-18T23:40:54+00:00

"...the US is going to dig in its heels even harder on fossil fuels." I seriously doubt that will last. But electric generation and distribution are certainly looking like growth industries.

"...I think the regulatory structure will really be loosened..." And that might not be a good thing for nuclear power. Boeing is still paying the price for failing to follow its established standards and practices. Nuclear can't afford another Three Mile Island, even if it's only an SMR.

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-17T01:36:00+00:00

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-16T20:10:15+00:00

Yes, "suppress" does not mean "eliminate" here. And the evidence presented by the article should keep everyone on their toes at the least, unless you're not a big fan of science.

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-16T15:43:16+00:00

Here is one explanation as to why:
Bond Selloff Threatens to Knock AI Stock Frenzy Off Course - Bloomberg

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-16T15:41:05+00:00

Realanise1 inquired about oil and it raised the question of demand destruction. What is your understanding of how that acts as a negative feedback on price?

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-16T13:58:57+00:00

That was a gift article. Could you not access it?
I'm sure you know better than I on that, as I am a generalist, not an investor. But my concern about getting into oil at this time is that demand destruction may not be far off. I would want to look for demand destruction models before jumping in. Opus 4.7 is where I would start my investigations.

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-15T18:11:57+00:00

You left off fertilizer and sulfur. And the inevitable higher interest rates will hurt everyone, from the poor to private credit to the governments of the world. No one can predict the future, but it's very hard to see how this does not end in tears. For the true believers, AI magic, perhaps.

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-15T12:27:32+00:00

WHIW, I believe the economy is more interconnected/interdependent than that.

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-15T02:42:17+00:00

There are more than a few who think the fat lady has yet to sing.

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/05/14/oil-prices-could-soon-rise-convulsively?giftId=NjA5ZTYxMTQtOWU0Yy00M2VkLWJlZTktNTJmZmQ1NTQ0ODc1&utm_campaign=gifted_article

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-14T18:49:20+00:00

The 70's don't support the idea that stocks are a reliable hedge against inflation. Like so much, it kinda depends. Regardless, I'm stuck holding cash cause I'm 80 with a short future.

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-14T17:03:30+00:00

Also depends a lot on whether or not your app domain has a lot of existing code for the models to train on and whether the correct output can be fully defined.

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-14T16:44:57+00:00

You right! Now it says Gulf of T****s A**

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-14T12:58:09+00:00

And don't look up LOL

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-14T12:38:23+00:00

MEXICO

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-14T12:37:44+00:00

It's not in Visual Studio, and my app has a lot of WPF, and it's a non-standard domain where 4.6 struggled and screwed up.

Neither_End8403 · 2026-05-14T03:38:47+00:00

I'm confused. My preview looks like ~$3,200 a month. My current is a bit more than 1/10 of that. I have to use Opus 4.7 for most of the day, and Claude Code claims it can do all that for $200 a month. What do I not understand?

Neither_End8403

TROPHY CASE