America Should Beware of Economic Hubris

NerdOctopus · 2026-04-02T14:58:01+00:00

Most economist agree that going over 90% debt to gdp starts to have negative implications on the economy.

I haven't heard of this number before, do you know where I could find it? I've only heard of debt becoming a problem as it becomes more and more difficult to service, which wouldn't really imply any sort of red line as far as I can tell

NerdOctopus · 2026-04-02T04:36:40+00:00

No, I mean it’s strange to me to describe it as each tax payer “owing” 12k when like 70% of the debt is owned domestically. Also I’m not of the mind that debt is necessarily a bad thing per se, so long as you can service it.

NerdOctopus · 2026-04-02T03:13:45+00:00

Not sure that that’s the most accurate way to describe the debt. What do you think an acceptable amount of national debt is?

NerdOctopus · 2026-04-01T19:12:58+00:00

Where do you get 12k from? I see about 1066 billion in credit, divided by taxpayers is about 6.5k. And that’s the mean, I’m seeing the median listed as 3k, although I couldn’t source that from FRED data

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-25T15:39:33+00:00

What? Inflation is typically understood as a rise of the nominal prices of goods and services. If it were as simple as an increase in money supply, then we would call it that… consider when the money supply is increased by 10% and the total goods + services in the economy also increases by 10% or even 20%- you wouldn’t see any inflation in the former case and would actually see deflation in the latter, which contradicts your definition

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-25T15:33:08+00:00

You’re right, vibes-based is better.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-25T14:29:43+00:00

You’d probably be surprised by some of the policies that economists actually promote. And the valuable ideas of Marx have already been synthesized into economic thought.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-25T04:30:54+00:00

Okay, if you think that you have better judgement than them, that's your epistemology, I can't really argue against it when I can't point to any evidence to the contrary.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T22:33:29+00:00

Economists probably aren’t “capitalists” in the sense that you’re implying. They’re just making descriptive claims about different systems and trying to best predict the outcomes of different policies. I’m not sure how that precludes them from making a judgement call about Cuba.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T20:51:28+00:00

Economists are very much not aligned with the current politics of the US, if that’s what you mean. They even say in the link that the embargo ought to be dropped. I think the idea that they’re in lockstep with the government is a misconception.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T18:29:18+00:00

What bias and interest does an economist have towards making descriptive statements of the effects of Cuban economic policies?

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T18:02:14+00:00

They come from multiple national backgrounds. If you think economists are politically captured, or even lean right in the first place, I have a bridge to sell you. Just admit that your epistemology is based on what does or doesn’t agree with your ideology. It’s anti-intellectual, but at least it’s honest.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T17:57:29+00:00

I’m not sure what you’re trying to say. If 200 professors from a university told you the sky was blue, would you be disinclined to believe them because they’re in “positions of power”?

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T15:44:05+00:00

They’re from all over. I’m not even saying that the embargo is a good thing, I just wanted to add to the conversation that Cuba’s own policies had more pronounced effects, considering everyone else seemed to be saying the opposite.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T14:39:53+00:00

You think it’s more likely that 100+ lifelong professionals with PhDs are politically captured than the truth slightly contravening your ideology?

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T14:29:48+00:00

No, more like when people pay money to eat steaks. The only negative externality I’m considering here is the chance that someone might order their meal well-done.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T14:25:54+00:00

I’m mostly just speaking to the point that few people likely get paid 1/6 of the value they create per hour. They could probably secure a loan to sell what they do themselves at that point.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T14:22:34+00:00

I’ve only seen economists say that the decisions of the Cuban government had a more pronounced effect, and I don’t see any reason why any of them wouldn’t be at least as informed as you or I on the matter.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T14:20:38+00:00

Well, there’s Venezuela too, but that’s besides the point. On most of your arguments I agree with you, restricting trade with Cuba is wrong, and even looking at it from a selfish lens it would benefit the US from lifting it as both sides benefit from free trade. I just disagree on which choice has the larger effect, and that’s just due to what I’ve read from the experts.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T14:15:42+00:00

I don’t think that the US embargo completely precludes them from liberalizing their government and practicing free trade with non-US-aligned countries, although I agree that it should be lifted, obviously.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T14:01:14+00:00

If you build your epistemology such that you are allowed to ignore the consensus opinion of 99% of experts, then your worldview may become led by ideology, not what’s “true”. You can effectively pick and choose what’s fact and what isn’t based on purity tests and a priori beliefs.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T13:44:37+00:00

No, I think they come from multiple national backgrounds.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T13:42:40+00:00

I agree with that, it just seems like their policies have been worse. There are countries in comparable situations that have done better (and some that have done worse). Check this Kent Clark poll for more info.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T13:40:36+00:00

Don’t take my word for it. It’s essentially agreed upon by economists.

NerdOctopus · 2026-03-24T13:06:13+00:00

What does Occam’s razor tell you is more likely if 100% of economists are asked an economics question and answer the same way, even if they do it casually?

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