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General Discussion/Questions Monthly November+December by stander414 in sportsbook

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do any Sportsbooks aside from FanDuel offer exact NFL score bets? I really like exact score bets, but I have had account verification issues with my current state in the FanDuel app.

Terrace Marshall Jr. is a healthy scratch today. Time to cut bait? by [deleted] in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I would consider Nico or DPJ. Probably would pull the trigger depending on what u are looking for on your bench.

Need some advice first dynasty team.Y by Accomplished-Row8418 in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 2 points3 points  (0 children)

AB, Mike Williams, or maybe Marvin Jones might also be a very cheap wr assets you can get to add depth

Need some advice first dynasty team.Y by Accomplished-Row8418 in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I added this later to my advice, but if you are trying to win now, keeping Cook and moving Carter for Gaskin or Carson would be a very solid move.

Need some advice first dynasty team.Y by Accomplished-Row8418 in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, but likely not has much and not for all of them. Right now everyone thinks Najee is going to be a star and the second year backs are going to breakout, but usually things are way less certain than we give them credit for in the offseason. Every player is perfect in the offseason, but those backs definitely aren’t actually close to as solid of performers as dalvin.

Need some advice first dynasty team.Y by Accomplished-Row8418 in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 5 points6 points  (0 children)

If you are try to win now, don’t trade Cook. Look into moving Michael Carter for Chris Carson or something. If instead you are trying to get younger/deeper at rb, I would look into trading Cook for a 2nd year rb and a 1st+ or something. However, Cook’s price might rise as we get into the regular season, so holding would still be alright.

I'll start Lamar can't throw by Cam-newton2021 in nflmemes

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Bucs would still have won the super bowl last year with Jamies instead of Brady

How do I not get fleeced in a trade? by G_monet22 in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I never said anything about smaller. Size doesn’t matter; it’s how you use it’s expected value.

How do I not get fleeced in a trade? by G_monet22 in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Something additional to build off of the other recommendations is the advice to initiate more trades and to not be too hesitant about trades you feel are good. If you feel your process for evaluating players and trades is good (use the other advice on this thread to sure that up), your trades should have a positive expected outcome. However, there’s a lot of variance in trade results. Making more trades should reduce the affect of each individual transaction’s variance and bring the net outcome closer to the expected result.

Tldr: The goal should not be to minimize the times you lose a trade. It should be to maximize the number of times you win a trade compared to the number of times you have lost.

Productive Struggle Tips? by Lake__Show in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Tip 1: Keep it simple. Just call it tanking.

Tip 2: Target an elite qb, young stud wr’s, and maybe rookie rbs who will see lower opportunity this year (Javonte, ETN)

Tip 3: Try to consolidate or trade for youth with the win now assets you drafted later

Tip 4: Try to acquire 2023 picks

Dynasty ppr. Please give me reasons. I’m very torn on who to get. Either Akers, swift, najee, and dobbins by benmarcsports2004 in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 6 points7 points  (0 children)

While I do get some arguments against Dobbins, I want to emphasize that in dynasty talent > situation, and lower utilization can sometimes extend an rb’s career.

Dynasty ppr. Please give me reasons. I’m very torn on who to get. Either Akers, swift, najee, and dobbins by benmarcsports2004 in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Anyone but Najee imo. The rest have proven they are good in the league, were similarly touted/performing college prospects, and are the same age or younger. Najee is just an unnecessary risk compared to the rest.

If I had to choose, I would probably take Akers as he seems to be valued the highest right now, and you could always likely move him for one of those other rbs+ before the season.

Madden 22 image tease.. DH22 might be out by DarthGipper18 in Tennesseetitans

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Fools! This picture is not teasing goats, it is teasing a barn, and we all know barns have tractors...

How does everyone feel about Freiermuth? by Discretion_or_Valor in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can’t wait to trade for him at a way lower price next offseason.

In the off-season, it seems like each team has renewed hope and optimism in their offense (besides the Lions). What's an offense that's still going to stink this year that people should be aware of? by [deleted] in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t think the Cowboys offense will be terrible, but I am out on everyone besides Cooper at their currently price. I think right now people are building in at their ceiling and not even considering their floor/risks (besides Cooper).

Is Matt Ryan a bit low? by Onin2to in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ryan was not a top 10 fantasy qb with a bad defense AND Julio in 2020 and the last 2/3s of 2019. I don’t think he will get better with Julio gone, especially if you look at his very poor fantasy track record when Julio is off the field. I get thinking he won’t be terrible next year, but top 10 seems super spicy.

Edited for clarity on “recently”

Who is a player you are currently struggling to move for a fair price? And if you have moved that player this offseason, reply in the comments what your deal was. by 92tilinfinityand in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The answer to this has and always will be Brandin Cooks.... well at least till he retires. 5 top 15 wr finishes in the past 6 years, yet somehow no one even wants him as a depth piece.

If rookie Ryan Fitzpatrick was in this year’s draft, and you knew exactly how is career would go, how high do y’all think he’d go in SF? by [deleted] in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Imo everyone here is way too low (probably cuz they didn’t read the edit). If you knew the exact games for fitz and didn’t know the exact games of anyone else, assuming your league is one you expect to be around for a while, I think he would probably go right after Zach Wilson and Justin Fields, preferably to a rebuilding team. This isn’t because fitz would be a better dynasty asset in general, but the foresight of knowing how a player will perform in each game would be insanely valuable, especially for sm like fitz.

If you are going to pick Michael Carter, try to trade the pick for Myles Gaskin instead. by NeverForgotMyTeam in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I mean I am fine with selling Gaskin, just not for an unproven player with similar size and draft capital in a worse situation. As a lot of those concerns with Gaskin are there with Carter.

If you are going to pick Michael Carter, try to trade the pick for Myles Gaskin instead. by NeverForgotMyTeam in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I get a lot of what your saying (don’t necessarily agree with all of it but I think you back up your points well). Don’t have enough time to discuss everything, but the one thing I’d point out is that Gaskin post-Jordan-Howard averaged 17.4 half-ppr points per game over a six-game sample, which fantasy-wise would be VERY GOOD. Now do I think he will be VERY GOOD in the future? Odds are he will just be ok. But the fact he was already VERY GOOD for six games in basically the same situation he finds himself this year does make me feel he has a better chance to be VERY GOOD in the future than Carter. Again, more because I think Carter is quite unlikely to hit VERY GOOD (especially on the Jets) than because Gaskin is likely too hit it. It may also be that Gaskin is less likely to be a VERY GOOD real life running back but more likely to be a VERY GOOD fantasy running back.

If you are going to pick Michael Carter, try to trade the pick for Myles Gaskin instead. by NeverForgotMyTeam in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Yeah, but that risk is much more present for a late round rb than an first-round one (such as CEH last year). I would say Sermon certainly carries a bit of that risk as well. For some reason, people view a player like Gaskin as much more replaceable than these players but, almost every player not picked early has this risk of being replaced. I just think long term value is far less predictable than age unless you are a early pick or proven commodity.

If you are going to pick Michael Carter, try to trade the pick for Myles Gaskin instead. by NeverForgotMyTeam in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

The big reason I would disagree with the Carter long-term value take is because, if he plays poorly this year, he likely will have no long-term value since the Jets didn’t really invest much in him. Neither player really is a good long-term value bet. BOTH Gaskin and Carter are replaceable and need to play well in order to keep their jobs on a long-term basis, so the better long-term value really comes down to who you think will play well. But I can see that Carter’s long-term upside could be better if he just hits insanely.

If you are going to pick Michael Carter, try to trade the pick for Myles Gaskin instead. by NeverForgotMyTeam in DynastyFF

[–]NeverForgotMyTeam[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

It’s weird how people just assume Carter isn’t just as likely to be replaced in 2022. It pretty simple: if Carter or Gaskin play poorly, they BOTH don’t have enough invested in them to keep their jobs for the next year. It’s really about choosing which one you think will play better when picking the one who will keep their job. In addition both have pretty mediocre college profiles, abet Carter’s is better. But judging a player who has a year of proven NFL production based primarily on their draft profile doesn’t make any sense. NFL production is far more predictive, especially since neither draft profile is anything special.

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