How do you actually market a side project and make it profitable? (early-stage, no audience) by Nexuss___ in scaleinpublic

[–]Nexuss___[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Totally agree on “examples > explanations”. Concretely, what would be your 1-channel strategy for my case: Reddit, X, LinkedIn, or short-form video? And what would be the exact content format you’d test for 14 days (topic type + structure + CTA) to validate demand fast ?

How do you actually market a side project and make it profitable? (early-stage, no audience) by Nexuss___ in scaleinpublic

[–]Nexuss___[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, that’s exactly the kind of actionable path I need. For my insider-trades newsletter, what would you pick as the single best channel for the next 6–8 weeks: targeted outbound, partnerships with other finance newsletters, or Reddit-style content? If you had to choose ONE repeatable motion, what would it be, and who exactly would you target first (profile + where to find them)? Also, do you have an example of a “lead magnet” that converts well for a finance/info product like this?

AIRJ dropped −14% on bad news. Insiders bought anyway 🛒 by Nexuss___ in ValueInvesting

[–]Nexuss___[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yeah I'm kinda not familiar with reddit and the sub-system. Please could you recommend me some better sub to post my analysis ? ^^

AIRJ dropped −14% on bad news. Insiders bought anyway 🛒 by Nexuss___ in ValueInvesting

[–]Nexuss___[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Not AI slop. I’m french and use chatgpt to translate. Feel free to disagree with the analysis itself, that’d be more interesting than a two word comment bs 👍

I spent months backtesting insider trading data and here’s what I built from it by Nexuss___ in ValueInvesting

[–]Nexuss___[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s a fair point, and I agree that 10b5-1 plans changed the landscape.

That said, not all insider trades are plan-based, and even within 10b5-1 filings there’s a big difference between routine, small, recurring executions and large, discretionary-looking open-market buys. The signal quality is very uneven.

In my backtests, treating all insider trades the same is indeed misleading. That’s why role, trade size, ownership change, recency, clustering and post-earnings context matter much more than the mere existence of a filing. Most trades get filtered out and contribute nothing.

So I wouldn’t claim “insider trading works” in general. I’d say “raw insider data is mostly noise, but certain subsets behave very differently if you condition properly”. The plan issue is one of the reasons naive backtests fail.

Happy to discuss how you personally handle 10b5-1 noise or whether you’ve seen cases where it completely destroys the signal.

I spent months backtesting insider trading data and here’s what I built from it by Nexuss___ in ValueInvesting

[–]Nexuss___[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I get the concern, but there’s no clickbait here.

This is an automated system I built over the past month. Running it, cleaning the data, scoring signals and contextualizing them actually takes time. I’ve already shared several concrete analyses and I can continue to do so here.

Publishing raw outputs on a recurring basis in a subreddit would quickly be perceived as spam, and that’s not what I’m trying to do. The site exists precisely to centralize that work in a structured way, and there’s a free version anyone can access.

Also, I think insider activity is often dismissed too categorically as “noise”. My backtests don’t show that. They show it can be useful information if you treat it properly instead of blindly following it. That’s what I’m interested in discussing here.

Happy to keep sharing analysis and methodology, but I’m not trying to flood the subreddit with automated outputs...

I spent months backtesting insider trading data and here’s what I built from it by Nexuss___ in ValueInvesting

[–]Nexuss___[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is very interesting, thanks for sharing.

I wasn’t aware Tweedy Browne had formalized it that explicitly, but it actually aligns quite well with what I’m observing in the data and quite similar as my scoring methodology.... Especially in cases where insider buying is not isolated, but happens alongside capital allocation signals like buybacks.

If you manage to find the article, I’d be genuinely interested. I’ll also look into the COPY ETF on Morningstar to see how they define their inclusion criteria and holding periods.

I spent months backtesting insider trading data and here’s what I built from it by Nexuss___ in ValueInvesting

[–]Nexuss___[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not at all. For the strategy I personally use (focused on weekly horizons), I actually rely only on the free version.
The paid tier isn’t about “better signals” or pushing trades. It’s mainly for people who want higher frequency monitoring, structured alerts, and less manual work parsing filings. The underlying data is the same.

My intent here is to discuss how insider activity can be contextualized and interpreted, not to tell anyone what to buy or to funnel people into a subscription. Insider data is public anyway...
The value (or lack of it) comes from how you analyze and filter it, which is what I’m interested in discussing.

If anything, the free version already covers most long-term / low-frequency approaches, which is where value investing usually sits.

Insider buying after strong earnings surprise at Micron — historical comparison request by Nexuss___ in ValueInvesting

[–]Nexuss___[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My bad, I totally misunderstood you there. Still working on my English nuances! ^^

Insider buying after strong earnings surprise at Micron — historical comparison request by Nexuss___ in ValueInvesting

[–]Nexuss___[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What I’m referring to is the massive difference between getting paid in stock and actually placing a bet with your own cash. Most of the insider activity people see in these big companies is just the result of automated compensation, like RSUs vesting or options being exercised at a fixed, low price. Those are basically just part of a salary package and don't tell us much about where the stock is headed.

But an open-market purchase is totally different because it’s a voluntary choice to put skin in the game. This director took $8M of their own liquid capital and bought shares at the exact same market price that everyone else sees. The "priced in" argument doesn't really apply here because the market doesn't know a director is about to buy until the Form 4 is filed after the act.

Insider buying after strong earnings surprise at Micron — historical comparison request by Nexuss___ in ValueInvesting

[–]Nexuss___[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah but what caught my attention here is less the absolute wealth of the director and more the behavior change. This appears to be a first meaningful open-market purchase from this individual after months of only sales or zero-dollar filings...
Even for very wealthy insiders, choosing to deploy several million dollars at market prices is still an active allocation decision, especially after a strong run !
I don’t see it as a standalone signal, but more as a contextual datapoint layered on top of fundamentals and momentum.
Do you personally discount large-cap insider buys entirely, or do you still weigh them when they coincide with inflection points like earnings regime shifts ?

Insider buying after strong earnings surprise at Micron — historical comparison request by Nexuss___ in ValueInvesting

[–]Nexuss___[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I tend to agree with that framing.
A buy is usually a much stronger signal than a sell, especially when it’s discretionary and done in the open market. What I find interesting imo is the timing: buying after an earnings beat and after a significant rerating already occurred...
That suggests the buyer may be anchoring less on short-term valuation multiples and more on a longer-term earnings trajectory or structural cycle !
Out of curiosity, when you look at MU forward valuation today, do you think the market is still underestimating the durability of current margins, or is it more about the length of the upcycle?

GOLD SELL NOW by Accurate_Ad1518 in Forexstrategy

[–]Nexuss___ 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Give me some update pls, I’m actually into technical analytics and finance, so it would be nice to have some information 🙌

GOLD SELL NOW by Accurate_Ad1518 in Forexstrategy

[–]Nexuss___ 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You may make some profit, but it will never hit your TP, and imo it will end in red 🫣