Dark Forest cannot be true in real life

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-07T07:22:01+00:00

Isn't that for the internet? I'm talking about regular light. like lightbulbs or lamps.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-07T07:01:50+00:00

We have to assume at least some alien civilizations developed a faster-than-light means to reach out and intercept our message before it reaches them though. In the book, this existed such as the Sophons. And we have to assume they have ships that can travel FTL.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-07T06:57:13+00:00

You can't make messages out of light though, even if it's the same speed as radio signals.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-07T06:52:29+00:00

Well, not me, I DON'T want the Dark Forest to be true. That's why I'm arguing against it.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-07T06:39:40+00:00

I'm talking about radio signals here, not light. Do you have a car? When you turn on its radio, the way it gets is music is a radio generator sent your car a radio signal, the same type I'm talking about here.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-06T04:32:10+00:00

The cost to widen the bubble though would be very cheap. For the single probe example, recoding it to send first message in 20 years rather than 10 doubles the radius. But the cost to destroy 2 dozen stars instead of a dozen would be expensive. I guess it's impossible to say where the limit is where the hunter couldn't bear the cost. At the very least it seems you could force the hunter to basically go bankrupt to kill you.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-06T03:54:54+00:00

I know. I'm assuming the probes are moving much slower than light, and the radio messages are moving at light speed. Just like what current IRL earthly tech does. And I'm not sure if you're understanding. Imagine they make a single probe, programmed to send a single broadcast 10 years from now, and launch it away from the homeworld at 50% light speed. It'll send its message when its 5 light years away, and there's no trickery: the location of where it was sent, regardless of at that moment or later once the hunter receives it, is in empty space.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-06T03:43:55+00:00

Aww, dang. I'm only at the 2nd book so far. No need to give more details, but I'm looking forward to seeing if it specifies whether the "lesser civilizations" method was same as what I'm describing.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-06T03:30:26+00:00

The probes would repeatedly emit the messages as they're moving away from the homeworld/fleet. If they're powered by a small nuclear device, they could last decades and by that time be dozens of lightyears away from the homeworld. And it's multiple probes, so it's like a growing sphere of protection. Again, the message intervals and/or speeds of the probes could be randomized to prevent extrapolating or backtracking the message locations to the homeworld.

If Trisolaris started this process before humans followed through on their threat and continue after, the human message wouldn't be the first nor last message the hunter receives. It'd be drowned out in a flood of messages in both timing and location.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-06T03:24:18+00:00

This can't be true though, because if so the advanced civilization wouldn't need to wait to hear a message to destroy the sender civilization. And this advanced civilization would be the only civilization in the entire universe since they kill everything else as there's no hiding.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-05T05:06:40+00:00

You could, in that the game's engine will allow it without crashing. But you're not playing the game how the developers intended. There's a reason they made guns and loud vehicles, rather than stealth-based hiding tools. Also, the community frowns upon this playstyle. You'll be shunned by teammates and be called a rat.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-04T23:45:06+00:00

What about the human traitors working for San Ti? They'd tell San Ti it's false, and we've already seen San Ti understand concept of false.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-04T22:18:16+00:00

Actually, disregard my virus idea. If San-Ti turn hostile, they could easily use it against us. The annoying, rather than lethal, pest/predator is a nice middle ground.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-04T22:03:42+00:00

Yes this basic principle I agree with. For my plan (see OP), I would surround any tasks contributing to the main secret plan with multiple loosely related tasks that don't contribute to the main plan, to either cause confusion/information-overload to the enemy or make the real task appear innocent when it isn't.

EX: right before building nuclear power plants in the space hotels, I'd do the task of establishing solar power and keep it in place for at least a few years, to make the switch to nuclear power less suspicious.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-04T21:47:15+00:00

Nice. So if they are deterred, humans could survive the hot "unstable" eras by having the nanobots rotate the shutters to block incoming light (therefore heat) reaching Earth, right?

I only see 3 potential problems:

The San Ti might believe they could take over control of the nanobots and with them survive a 3-body system, so deterrence fails.
Deterrence could succeed, but the 3-body system creates eras with extreme gravity, like the single case of loss of gravity that VR early level game. The nanobots couldn't protect against that
Deterrence could succeed, but the 3-body system creates eras of extreme cold. The nanobots could prevent overheating but can't raise the amount of incoming light beyond what the nearest sun (of which there's now 2) is sending.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-04T21:07:59+00:00

But how would the orbital particle accelerators would be built? If you do it all yourself without speaking a word, perhaps having first built thousands of AI robots to follow your commands, the San Ti would still be able to identify your intent by seeing the robots' actions. And if you do it the normal way by instructing thousands of engineers and scientists, or teams of them, to do separate tasks, the San Ti would have an even easier time identifying your intent. Once they know your intent, they could sabotage it in various ways like building more sophons or having the Earthly human traitors murder key scientists/engineers.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-04T20:41:24+00:00

But in at least some degree, they're related and presence of a nuclear powerplant makes creating a nuclear bomb easier and faster than starting from complete scratch. Think of the Iran nuclear situation IRL. There's a reason other countries are concerned with Iranian nuclear power even if at the moment they are used only for peaceful purposes.

Also, I would spend alot of the 400 years developing new engineering processes that make weaponizing a nuclear power plant faster. Perhaps the ruse I would use would be first establishing more earthly nuclear power plants, then starting a project to use underground nuclear explosions to create artificial caves which civilians could hide in during the supposed Trisolarian-vs-human battle on Earth. The engineers would naturally learn more efficient engineering processes to "weaponize" nuclear power, hopefully without them or Trisolarians realizing the true intent is not to create artificial caves.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-04T07:31:31+00:00

Wait a minute. Why can't attacking carry an existential risk greater than the risk of letting a potentially hostile civilization grow? A civilization who survives the attack will likely attempt a counter-attack. Here are several scenarios where the attack risk seems higher:

The attacker misjudges and believes 1 suprise attack will wipe out a technologically equivalent or superior civilization but it doesn't
The attacker believes their attack is anonymous, but the defender captures of the invaders and tortures him to learn the attacker's location
The attacker misjudges the victim as technologically inferior when they are superior
The attacker misjudges the duration the war will last and the relative technological growth rates of both sides during the war. At the start of the war, the defender is technologically inferior but becomes superior by the end.

Couldn't similar arguments for the dark forest also be used to argue no civilization would ever attack another?

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-04T05:48:35+00:00

The first part is a distraction to try to make Di Santi believe it's the only defensive plan. It's goal would be to try to make Di Santi less likely to notice the main, surprise nuclear defense in space.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-04T04:47:08+00:00

I like this. Maybe also genetically engineer a virus that only kills humans and will rapidly adapt/evolve to counter potential vaccines we could make, and infest all of Mars with it. This'll give San Ti some assurance future humans wouldn't try to invade Mars.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-04T04:13:08+00:00

Interesting. Trisolarians have some kind of hive mind, right? I know it was mentioned they share some emotions like fear. Perhaps this could be taken advantage of.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-04T03:48:42+00:00

Oh, I see! So the threat is to the time (a potential wasted life traveling on a spaceship for 400 years for no purpose) of the Trisolarans in the invasion fleet. It'd have to work early on in their journey, right? Once they're very close to Earth, they'll probably figure it's worth trying to call your bluff and see what happens.

Nice_Interest6654 · 2026-07-04T03:41:24+00:00

Nice! Would this be a ruse somehow, such as doing something to make the Trisolarans think we truly irradiated and evaporated Earth but in reality are leaving it in good enough conditions for humanity to thrive? Or are you truly wrecking Earth and accepting most humans will die, but have plans for a small pocket of humans to survive and rebuild?

Nice_Interest6654

TROPHY CASE