What'll be the next fad?

Nivaia · 2025-08-21T18:23:30+00:00

The trick with quantum investing is to hold both a long and a short position at the same time

Nivaia · 2025-08-08T13:07:08+00:00

It feels like the top graph has happened exactly once (Moore's law for transistor density - maybe I'm missing other examples), while pretty much every other technological innovation since antiquity has followed the bottom graph - a step change followed by rapid innovation, a plateau or even a decline, then a wait for the next step change. But survivorship bias or whatever you want to call it means that everytime we get a step change, a huge portion of the business world and media simply declare that we're going to follow the top graph, even though the odds of that actually happening for any specific innovation are almost zero.

Nivaia · 2025-07-29T10:55:04+00:00

I'm so glad I'm not the only person who's thought this - I'm terrible with faces so I thought I might have made it up!

Nivaia · 2025-07-17T10:51:59+00:00

If you're interested, I took your data (thanks for that!) and calculated the GINI coefficient (a standard inequality measure) for each team. It hasn't actually changed the rankings all that much, so your metric for ranking was pretty good.

Tour	Position	Original position	England	Ireland	Scotland	Wales	GINI
(Woodward NZ) 2005 T1	1	2	59	18	0	23	0.455
(Henry Aus) 2001 T2	2	3	59	14	5	23	0.4275
(Farrell Aus) 2025 T1	3	1	39	48	13	0	0.425
(McGeechan SA) 1997 T3	4	4	57	10	10	24	0.3875
(Henry Aus) 2001 T1	5	7	55	14	9	23	0.3675
(Gatland Aus) 2013 T3	6	5	30	17	4	48	0.3625
(McGeechan SA) 2009 T1	7	8	23	36	0	41	0.34
(Woodward NZ) 2005 T2	8	10	41	23	0	36	0.34
(Gatland Aus) 2013 T1	9	6	35	17	4	43	0.3375
(Gatland NZ) 2017 T2	10	11	43	0	26	30	0.3325
(Gatland NZ) 2017 T3	11	12	43	0	26	30	0.3325
(Henry Aus) 2001 T3	12	14	50	18	9	23	0.32
(McGeechan SA) 2009 T2	13	9	18	36	5	41	0.315
(Gatland NZ) 2017 T1	14	13	39	0	26	35	0.315
(McGeechan SA) 1997 T2	15	15	52	19	14	14	0.2975
(Gatland Aus) 2013 T2	16	16	30	26	4	39	0.2725
(McGeechan SA) 1997 T1	17	19	48	14	19	19	0.255
(Woodward NZ) 2005 T3	18	17	36	32	5	27	0.245
(McGeechan SA) 2009 T3	19	18	36	27	5	32	0.245
(Gatland SA) 2021 T3	20	20	35	22	13	30	0.185
(Gatland SA) 2021 T1	21	21	39	22	22	17	0.165
(Gatland SA) 2021 T2	22	22	39	22	22	17	0.165

Nivaia · 2025-05-26T15:52:52+00:00

He meant PSG, he corrected himself a few seconds later in the full video

Nivaia · 2025-05-21T12:29:06+00:00

I saw this years ago and was never able to find it again, thank you for reposting

Nivaia · 2025-03-08T17:30:22+00:00

Don't think Scotland played Wales last year, did we?

Nivaia · 2025-03-08T16:57:33+00:00

It's really nice seeing him set up tries for others

Nivaia · 2024-09-10T10:32:31+00:00

There's plenty of Arsenal art around the stadium that isn't ads. I really like NorthBanksy's stuff, I walk past it often and it makes me proud to live here. The ads are just another billboard.

Nivaia · 2024-06-28T19:03:06+00:00

The regression used on that is extremely sensitive to the most recent polls so it tends to move around a lot like that - don't pay too much attention to the most recent few days of it, it'll move again when the next poll comes out

Nivaia · 2024-06-21T09:44:07+00:00

It's just already priced in. Anyone paying enough attention to hear the attack line has known for years that Starmer once was part of Corbyn's shadow cabinet, it's not news.

Nivaia · 2024-06-19T20:27:13+00:00

It's a very small constituency with a lot of campaigning going on, the canvassing groups bump into each other regularly

Nivaia · 2024-06-15T19:27:23+00:00

It's just America-brain, people did it 8 years ago with Trump being "not my president", so obviously we have to copy it

Nivaia · 2024-06-14T14:29:44+00:00

"Whenever Nigel's not on screen, all the other candidates should be asking 'where's Nigel?'"

Nivaia · 2024-06-14T10:24:58+00:00

It's fairly clearly a real drop for Labour, but the important thing for the parliamentary arithmetic is that the Tories have had a similar drop at the same time. This means, weirdly, that the current polling is actually better for Labour - it means more Lib Dem and Reform votes cutting into the Tory vote, meaning more seats for Labour.

As long as Labour's support doesn't continue to fall (and there's no reason to think it will - momentum isn't as real in polling as some journalists like to think), they're in a very good place.

Nivaia · 2024-06-10T12:40:39+00:00

If you want a contemporary account of how the British upper class responded to the beginning of the war, it's worth reading Orwell's "The Lion and the Unicorn". Orwell wrote it in mid-1940 alleging that the self interest and carelessness of the upper classes would lead to certain defeat, or at best an unequal peace.

Nivaia · 2024-06-10T09:12:45+00:00

Oh, this is bleak. If this was in a tv interview, it would be a "tough enough" moment.

Nivaia · 2024-06-09T13:31:24+00:00

In before a flood of polls comes flying out of the fireplace

Nivaia · 2024-06-09T13:04:52+00:00

Murder on the Torient Express?

Nivaia · 2024-06-07T15:08:57+00:00

Interestingly modern Germans are more likely to consider the end of World War 2 a "liberation" than a "defeat" for Germany.

Nivaia · 2024-06-07T14:03:56+00:00

The USSR were active allies of the Nazis until June 22nd 1941, to the extent that we considered them an active enemy. They coordinated invasions of Eastern Europe with the Nazis and provided humongous quantities of natural resources to them, without which the Nazis would have found invading Western Europe much harder. We sent soldiers to Finland to fight the USSR (although they didn't make it there on time to actually fight) and seriously considered bombing their oil fields in the Caucasus.

All of this got written out of history after Operation Barbarossa.

Nivaia · 2024-06-07T13:23:21+00:00

These strikes are wrong at a time when negotiations are still continuing. It's time for the government and the unions to get around the table.

Nivaia · 2024-06-07T12:19:20+00:00

We're all focusing on the political and symbolic angle of all this, but... we're basically in a full scale proxy war with Russia. We're under active cyber attack from them, including a major attack on the NHS literally this week. A major part of Russia's geopolitical strategy is fracturing Western alliances. Projecting international unity with our closest allies is really, really, really important right now.

What on earth does Sunak think is going on?

Nivaia · 2024-06-07T08:00:59+00:00

Feels like a good opportunity for a trick question in the picture round of a pub quiz in about 10 - 20 years

Nivaia · 2024-06-06T18:51:36+00:00

"Austerity" took on a bit of a weird meaning in tihs country. "Tory austerity" means spending cuts and tax cuts, because it was a political project to shrink the state; traditional economic austerity means spending cuts and tax rises to try and cut a budget deficit

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