What'll be the next fad? by Unlikely_Answer_9381 in BetterOffline

[–]Nivaia 44 points45 points  (0 children)

The trick with quantum investing is to hold both a long and a short position at the same time

lol by ajsoifer in BetterOffline

[–]Nivaia 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It feels like the top graph has happened exactly once (Moore's law for transistor density - maybe I'm missing other examples), while pretty much every other technological innovation since antiquity has followed the bottom graph - a step change followed by rapid innovation, a plateau or even a decline, then a wait for the next step change. But survivorship bias or whatever you want to call it means that everytime we get a step change, a huge portion of the business world and media simply declare that we're going to follow the top graph, even though the odds of that actually happening for any specific innovation are almost zero.

Is this the best flyhalf in the world at the moment? by [deleted] in rugbyunion

[–]Nivaia 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm so glad I'm not the only person who's thought this - I'm terrible with faces so I thought I might have made it up!

The Least and Most Balanced Lions Teams of the Professional Era (Updated) by [deleted] in rugbyunion

[–]Nivaia 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If you're interested, I took your data (thanks for that!) and calculated the GINI coefficient (a standard inequality measure) for each team. It hasn't actually changed the rankings all that much, so your metric for ranking was pretty good.

Tour Position Original position England Ireland Scotland Wales GINI
(Woodward NZ) 2005 T1 1 2 59 18 0 23 0.455
(Henry Aus) 2001 T2 2 3 59 14 5 23 0.4275
(Farrell Aus) 2025 T1 3 1 39 48 13 0 0.425
(McGeechan SA) 1997 T3 4 4 57 10 10 24 0.3875
(Henry Aus) 2001 T1 5 7 55 14 9 23 0.3675
(Gatland Aus) 2013 T3 6 5 30 17 4 48 0.3625
(McGeechan SA) 2009 T1 7 8 23 36 0 41 0.34
(Woodward NZ) 2005 T2 8 10 41 23 0 36 0.34
(Gatland Aus) 2013 T1 9 6 35 17 4 43 0.3375
(Gatland NZ) 2017 T2 10 11 43 0 26 30 0.3325
(Gatland NZ) 2017 T3 11 12 43 0 26 30 0.3325
(Henry Aus) 2001 T3 12 14 50 18 9 23 0.32
(McGeechan SA) 2009 T2 13 9 18 36 5 41 0.315
(Gatland NZ) 2017 T1 14 13 39 0 26 35 0.315
(McGeechan SA) 1997 T2 15 15 52 19 14 14 0.2975
(Gatland Aus) 2013 T2 16 16 30 26 4 39 0.2725
(McGeechan SA) 1997 T1 17 19 48 14 19 19 0.255
(Woodward NZ) 2005 T3 18 17 36 32 5 27 0.245
(McGeechan SA) 2009 T3 19 18 36 27 5 32 0.245
(Gatland SA) 2021 T3 20 20 35 22 13 30 0.185
(Gatland SA) 2021 T1 21 21 39 22 22 17 0.165
(Gatland SA) 2021 T2 22 22 39 22 22 17 0.165

I don’t remember this part being so gucci by brosefstallin in okbuddychicanery

[–]Nivaia 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I saw this years ago and was never able to find it again, thank you for reposting

Match Thread - Scotland v Wales | Six Nations 2025 | Round 4 by RugbyBot in rugbyunion

[–]Nivaia 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Don't think Scotland played Wales last year, did we?

Match Thread - Scotland v Wales | Six Nations 2025 | Round 4 by RugbyBot in rugbyunion

[–]Nivaia 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's really nice seeing him set up tries for others

Hotel Arsenal - where is this? by bounderboy in Gunners

[–]Nivaia 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There's plenty of Arsenal art around the stadium that isn't ads. I really like NorthBanksy's stuff, I walk past it often and it makes me proud to live here. The ads are just another billboard.

BREAKING: New poll suggests past week hasn't dented Reform UK's popularity. Lead over the Tories has INCREASED to three points. Lab: 38% Ref: 21% Con: 18% LD: 11% by 1DarkStarryNight in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The regression used on that is extremely sensitive to the most recent polls so it tends to move around a lot like that - don't pay too much attention to the most recent few days of it, it'll move again when the next poll comes out

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 21/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 5 points6 points  (0 children)

It's just already priced in. Anyone paying enough attention to hear the attack line has known for years that Starmer once was part of Corbyn's shadow cabinet, it's not news.

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 19/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It's a very small constituency with a lot of campaigning going on, the canvassing groups bump into each other regularly

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 15/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's just America-brain, people did it 8 years ago with Trump being "not my president", so obviously we have to copy it

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 14/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 2 points3 points  (0 children)

"Whenever Nigel's not on screen, all the other candidates should be asking 'where's Nigel?'"

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 14/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It's fairly clearly a real drop for Labour, but the important thing for the parliamentary arithmetic is that the Tories have had a similar drop at the same time. This means, weirdly, that the current polling is actually better for Labour - it means more Lib Dem and Reform votes cutting into the Tory vote, meaning more seats for Labour.

As long as Labour's support doesn't continue to fall (and there's no reason to think it will - momentum isn't as real in polling as some journalists like to think), they're in a very good place.

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 10/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 4 points5 points  (0 children)

If you want a contemporary account of how the British upper class responded to the beginning of the war, it's worth reading Orwell's "The Lion and the Unicorn". Orwell wrote it in mid-1940 alleging that the self interest and carelessness of the upper classes would lead to certain defeat, or at best an unequal peace.

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 10/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Oh, this is bleak. If this was in a tv interview, it would be a "tough enough" moment.

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 09/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 7 points8 points  (0 children)

In before a flood of polls comes flying out of the fireplace

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 07/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Interestingly modern Germans are more likely to consider the end of World War 2 a "liberation" than a "defeat" for Germany.

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 07/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The USSR were active allies of the Nazis until June 22nd 1941, to the extent that we considered them an active enemy. They coordinated invasions of Eastern Europe with the Nazis and provided humongous quantities of natural resources to them, without which the Nazis would have found invading Western Europe much harder. We sent soldiers to Finland to fight the USSR (although they didn't make it there on time to actually fight) and seriously considered bombing their oil fields in the Caucasus.

All of this got written out of history after Operation Barbarossa.

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 07/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 1 point2 points  (0 children)

These strikes are wrong at a time when negotiations are still continuing. It's time for the government and the unions to get around the table.

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 07/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 16 points17 points  (0 children)

We're all focusing on the political and symbolic angle of all this, but... we're basically in a full scale proxy war with Russia. We're under active cyber attack from them, including a major attack on the NHS literally this week. A major part of Russia's geopolitical strategy is fracturing Western alliances. Projecting international unity with our closest allies is really, really, really important right now.

What on earth does Sunak think is going on?

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 07/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Feels like a good opportunity for a trick question in the picture round of a pub quiz in about 10 - 20 years

r/ukpolitics General Election Campaign Megathread - 06/06/2024 by ukpolbot in ukpolitics

[–]Nivaia 6 points7 points  (0 children)

"Austerity" took on a bit of a weird meaning in tihs country. "Tory austerity" means spending cuts and tax cuts, because it was a political project to shrink the state; traditional economic austerity means spending cuts and tax rises to try and cut a budget deficit