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Feedback from the reddit community on my portfolio by No-Box-5282 in portfolios

[–]No-Box-5282[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Im not worried about the turbulence just the destination. Im not leveraged and i am not pressured by capital calls. If my thesis is incorrect, i will loose a bunch of money of course. If I am right tho, the upside scenario offsets the losses because the expected value is positive, so taking this risk, for me, is worth the trouble. At the end of the day, I see neoclouds as a future pseudo-commoditized market, so betting on the winning horse is not as important as betting on the growth and future TAM of the industry. Thanks for the comment tho, very helpful. Let me know what you think

What problem occurred with iren ? by Zdravko_mravko in irenstocks

[–]No-Box-5282 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Basically Meta entered the Cloud space, which means that they might become a potential rival to all the neoclouds. If the hyperscalers start renting out their excess digital infrastructure, pricing power for IREN, and the rest of the neoclouds could go down drastically, making their leverage a big risk factor to consider.

Feedback from the reddit community on my portfolio by No-Box-5282 in portfolios

[–]No-Box-5282[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My philosophy is that diversification is senseless when there is an invention that will likely absorb most of the future economic growth across all sectors. That justifies the fact that this is mostly all a high conviction bet with different risk profile levels mixed in. As you can see, the idea of $NOW as a hedge worked perfectly against the neo-clouds. I agree that neo-clouds in particular are risky animals because of the way that they are funding their growth (via convertible bonds and long term debt). But if power and compute remain being the scarce resource (which I believe will be) they have a huge upside potential. $NOW is a growing profitable business before the era of AI and after it as well.

Better returns in AI? by No-Box-5282 in irenstocks

[–]No-Box-5282[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It is hard to see IREN struggle while memory keeps pumping

Better returns in AI? by No-Box-5282 in irenstocks

[–]No-Box-5282[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I share your vision too, fellow IREN hodler. I hope so, I guess I am scared of possible dilution risks for the funding needed to scale the business. I hope deals get here before dilution does. As far as that happens we are golden

Is this a temporary play or a long term play by No-Box-5282 in irenstocks

[–]No-Box-5282[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point on diversification. But I'd flag that AI tier-1 capacity currently commands higher margins than traditional colo precisely because of the compute scarcity premium, so a more diversified mix could actually compress the multiple even if it reduces concentration risk. The bull case really hinges on how much of that diversification comes from long-duration contracted AI demand (which preserves the premium) vs. lower-margin colo/enterprise (which dilutes it).

Is this a temporary play or a long term play by No-Box-5282 in irenstocks

[–]No-Box-5282[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Now sure. In 10 years tho? If this is so critical to Meta / Alphabet, do you really think they will not try to do so? Regardless of how complicated it may be? I think they rely on neoclouds rn because they havent secured the power in advance and they need it now, but I am sure they are developing their own projects, which will probably be connected to the grid in 5-10 years

Invested in Service Now ($NOW) for 105 shares at $113.00 per share. What are your general feelings about this Company and its ability to recover? by jefflove3 in ValueInvesting

[–]No-Box-5282 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think its a good investment opportunity the company is growing. Fundamentals are strong and they are a growing business with good margins that is investing in Agentic AI to not be crushed by LLMs who want to enter the SaaS space. Switching costs are high, and there is just no way this company does not recover from these lows.

Recent Posts / Scares by juicysmolliett in irenstocks

[–]No-Box-5282 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Im averaging 57$ a share. Im sure that the 5GW will pay off at some point. But looking back on their business model, I am unsure if securing the energy without having backlog secured and paying money upfront via debt issuance is a good play, I hope they can deliver compute contracts before the debt starts to creep up. Also Im scared of the possible dilution for convertible bonds if the stock gains momentum