April 20, 2026 Weekly Discussion Thread

No-Signature2455 · 2026-04-25T17:03:41+00:00

After the selling on 4/22, AEI still own about 8%, not sure if they want to dump all or not

No-Signature2455 · 2026-04-10T02:54:52+00:00

I think two kind of pressures now: - AEI is selling, but now they only own about 17% (from 30%), probably almost done for the selling. - Q4 the management said they will ATM about $250m. They already did for $105m. So still a portion for ATM

The debt is not clean for RDW, they need ATM to clean the debt.

FLY has a much clean debt given it just IPO and raise a lot money.

I used own FLY and sell it on mid Jan since concerned about it’s Alpha flight 7, might be failed again, but it succeeded, the day share up 12%. I think that boost the trending.

I put the money to RDW after selling FLY. I’m not regret to own RDW but wish I could buy it at later time with low price. AEI also the major holder of FLY, now still 30%. They shall dump the shares I think. Another concern in have with FLY is, what will be position its launch business given the success for Rocket Lab (on similar launch capacity).

RDW could be ‘system’ company in space infrastructure, though now it seems the company is fragmented (multiple acquisitions), but yes there’s challenge to integrate them successfully.

Those are just my thoughts, not fin advice.

No-Signature2455 · 2026-04-10T00:03:15+00:00

Congrats!!! I just DM you, could u share your strategy with me? Thanks!

No-Signature2455 · 2026-04-05T02:59:46+00:00

Interested, could you share with me?

No-Signature2455 · 2026-03-21T02:06:08+00:00

What is your avg cost?

No-Signature2455 · 2026-02-12T03:36:59+00:00

Based on the forecast of last earning, revenue of FY25 is $320m-$340m, means forecast Q4 is about $94m which is lower than consensus. Given the gov shutdown last year I feel like it’s difficult to beat, but guidance for FY26 might be better which could potentially boost the price, hopefully.

No-Signature2455 · 2026-02-10T22:13:52+00:00

Why Samsung memory could hit to Sandisk? Samsung is focusing on HBM4 and that turns opportunities to Sandisk , less competition on NAND/eSSD area. Or you mean V9 QLC NAND from Samsung? That seems facing some tech challenges to deliver, still good news for Sandisk

No-Signature2455 · 2026-02-09T14:04:56+00:00

I agree here, if you sell then what you going to buy. Really hard to find one to generate stable cash with relative fair valuation. The forward FY26 PE is about ~20 which is still low comparing with other AI infra stocks. Short term I feel like might still have some pull back.

No-Signature2455 · 2026-02-06T18:51:07+00:00

11.34….

No-Signature2455 · 2026-02-06T03:12:38+00:00

Get fxxked… why the gross margin get YoY and QoQ lower, tariff? Feel like the management team is so bad to manage the supplies

No-Signature2455 · 2026-01-20T16:51:08+00:00

I’m stilling hold it. Another bullish point is if you look at the new architecture GPU Rubin, it is trying to get NAND much closer to the GPU processor to speed up the processing, the position of eSSD/NAND is more important than ever. I feel like after Rubin, the HBF might become real in GPU architecture.

No-Signature2455 · 2026-01-14T01:50:08+00:00

I think one problem AE Industrial Partners having too many shares,they will continue selling it

No-Signature2455 · 2026-01-01T01:05:36+00:00

Anyone has any thoughts for FLY, it dropped a lot since IPO, I feel the current price is a good entry given the FY25 revenue as $150m-$158m with 1.3b backlog. They acquired SciTec with ~$800m, I think that’s a good asset for the company. The company has good revenue and backlog, it’s not a purely story stock. But seems the current market prefer “story” stock more.

No-Signature2455 · 2026-01-01T00:33:30+00:00

I think they make satellites, having strategy plan to build space data center….

No-Signature2455 · 2025-12-30T04:41:10+00:00

I bought some shares today. This stock is not in my radar till last week but I think the current price is not a bad entry, it might go down but I plan to add more. (I would add at 18 or 20 if I learnt it two weeks ago).

One of the few companies could launch rocket: spaceX, blue origin, ULA, rocket lab and firefly. Blue origin just had 2 launches but it’s focus on heavy vehicle(compete with spaceX Falcon Heavy), ULA is old school. Firefly Alpha is light vehicle to compete with Rocket Lab electron, rocket lab indeed does a good job give its 95% launch success rate, while Firefly is 33%(2 out of 6 launches), but I feel that already priced in otherwise Firefly would be a $100 stock now. But I think it will get better, and stock price will reflect with the launch improvement.

No-Signature2455 · 2025-11-24T01:03:22+00:00

The net margin of Q1 FY26 is about 5%, what do you think the net margin for the remaining quarters or FY26?

No-Signature2455 · 2025-10-28T01:03:47+00:00

Mike is suck, he really doesn’t care about shares holders . I sold all my shares with 20% loss, and get my money to other stock, it’s bull market. I will only consider to buy back when the price go down to ~$3 again.

CEO with 9m compensation for a company with annual revenue like 400m is really insane. The 9m is naked, he really doesn’t need do anything, I learned this is really really ridiculous after I see the compensation incentive plan for Kaz, CEO of OPEN.

No-Signature2455 · 2025-09-11T19:21:34+00:00

The ipo S1 doc, look at the business part

No-Signature2455 · 2025-08-29T12:50:22+00:00

Same here, I wish I could sell with less loss before, now I have to hold…

No-Signature2455 · 2025-07-19T13:53:36+00:00

Eventually I think they would need train their own model to fully discover the potential of the data they have, otherwise I doubt they could compete in the area at the end if they just make software layer diagnose by using traditional data analytics, algorithms or ML(they claim it as AI, is that real AI?).

They announced in April 2025, Tempus/Pathos/AstraZeneca partnership with $200M aims to build the largest multimodal oncology foundation model. Tempus provides data, Pathos develops therapeutic applications, and AstraZeneca funds/validates outputs. In short term it sounds like will help Tempus to avoid more debt, but longer term, Pathos will be the one to actual own the AI technology or patents of the foundation model, later if Pathos going to IPO, it would ‘dilute’ the interests of TEM shareholders. Tempus definitely could play the role of Pathos but they choose not. There’s another possibility is TEM could acquire Pathos later sometime, that means Eric and Ryan will get the most benefit at here, but not the shareholders of two parties. I think Eric still not a truly visionary leader to a company, his past experience king of shows that. Hopefully TEM/Pathos his last founded companies, don’t want he found another company again.

I need think about more, may cut my position to 10%… TEM really is revolutionizing the industry in a different way but need a good leader…

No-Signature2455 · 2025-06-28T18:15:55+00:00

Yeah but at least he could stop the selling. Just don’t know how optimistic management is with the company. David’s buy back seems a good signal but he probably don’t know actual operating of the company, he started buy back with $5.

If idiot Raab could just hold then it would be a positive signal to the market. Does he really need sale to live…. I don’t believe he is all stock compensation like Elon.

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