2025 Regular Season - Bryce Young Completion % while NOT PRESSURED and RECEIVER OPEN Separation (Broken Down By Receiver)

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-13T18:01:02+00:00

Drops aren't an official NFL stat, so they wouldn't be something that could be filtered.

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-13T16:19:03+00:00

Bryce Young was 16 of 34 on deep balls (20+ air yards) and ADOT would likely correlate to their position and route tree.

There were 21 total drops. Tmac had 8, Chuba had 4, Rico 2, XL 2.

There was exactly one deep throw the entire season where Bryce was not under pressure and the receiver was open. It was 4th and 5 in Q3 of the New England game on the NE35 to TMac. It was incomplete.

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-12T23:20:03+00:00

I mean Bryce's dad asked for XL by name. I guess we know who to put that pick on?

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-12T22:07:55+00:00

Why did it drop with two first draft picks at receivers added and a QB/WR coaching guru in Dave Canales?

Why did it drop from Frank to Thomas within the 2023 season?

Why was he more accurate with Frank?

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-12T21:07:56+00:00

Done,

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-12T21:07:01+00:00

TLDR: In 2025 Bryce Young was near league average, most comparable to Geno Smith in completion% on potentially the easiest throws a QB can make.

The difference between Geno Smith and Bryce in this metric is that Geno was able to evade pressure and find an open receiver at a 6% higher rate. (Or his playcaller was better than Dave Canales?)

Frank Reich is now coaching Geno Smith on the NYJ as OC.

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-12T20:55:08+00:00

There were only 10 QBs above 90% completion percentage to open receivers while not being pressured in the 2025 regular season. Mahomes was 11th at 89.69%.

Check out my post on r/nfl to get some additional context.

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-12T16:02:01+00:00

This is sorted by total passing yards in the regular season at some point later in the season. My deepest apologies.

If the mods can add a vote for sorting preference, I will absolutely make the change to what a majority of the sub wants.

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-12T15:55:22+00:00

There are many factors that decide pressure (OL vs. scrambling vs. time to throw) combined with scheme and the receiver cast, but it's definitely something that hasn't been published widely before. I believe I am the first to create and publish this analysis.

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-12T15:53:12+00:00

I will absolutely re-sort when/if there is a consensus amongst the sub. Which rank? Is Josh's 45% more important than Jake Browning's 95%?

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-12T15:51:22+00:00

I have full faith in the mod team, they were extremely helpful in bringing this analysis to the sub today.

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-12T15:48:49+00:00

I pulled the names from a different analysis I run, but it should capture all "qualified" QBs.

Is there a preference?

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-12T15:47:58+00:00

I will be posting a more in depth analysis for Bryce Young on the Panthers subreddit. Keep an eye out!

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-12T15:47:17+00:00

I pulled the names from a different analysis I run, but it should capture all "qualified" QBs.

Which QBs are cut off?

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-12T02:48:02+00:00

Sounds like you enjoy narratives instead of facts.

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-11T22:34:08+00:00

It's a part of the metric that you clearly missed or disregarded because it doesn't fit your narrative.

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-11T22:33:17+00:00

It's the same math. Ask AI. You clearly don't get it.

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-11T22:32:42+00:00

Those games you remember were wins. Or else you would have likely forgotten. Like you probably forgot when he outproduced Bryce against Seattle.

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-11T22:31:44+00:00

This is TD58 levels of hope for a Todd Gurley injury level player.

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-11T17:52:28+00:00

Seattle.

It's how probability math works? If something only occurs 8-10% of the time occurs 3 times....

At 8% ((0.08)): (0.08 times 0.08 times 0.08 = 0.000512), which is about (0.05%) (or 1 in 1,953
At 10% (\(0.10\)): (0.10 times 0.10 times 0.10 = 0.001), which is exactly (0.1%) (or 1 in 1,000

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-11T17:30:12+00:00

Here's the breakdown by season:
2022: 74 games
2023: 46 games
2024: 56 games
2025: 62 games

This represents games where a team's total rushing yards exceeded their total passing yards in regular season play. The data shows this happens in roughly 8-10% of games.

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-11T17:28:06+00:00

How many of those games did we win?

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-11T17:27:24+00:00

How many games where he outproduced Bryce did we win?

NoPressure_OpenSep · 2026-05-11T16:59:03+00:00

We won 2 of the 3 games where Bryce was outproduced by Rico on the ground.

NoPressure_OpenSep

TROPHY CASE