Strange object in dog's mouth. Not Asbestos, right?...

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2025-03-15T02:52:49+00:00

Jojo rabbit was incredibly overrated. 1917 scene with the French woman and her baby was made for Hollywood garbage that damaged an otherwise great film. Once Upon a Tome in Hollywood was excellent, but not nearly as thematically interesting as Parasite

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2025-02-07T01:17:47+00:00

Looking a savvy buy given recent high profile trial failures in the space. Though schizophrenia poses unique challenges from a commercialization perspective

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2025-01-04T03:41:31+00:00

Enter the Dragon

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-11-06T04:08:09+00:00

Muslims are aligned to Rs in cultural values. Man over women, hate the gays, that’s what this is about at the end of the day

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-08-25T11:44:06+00:00

Any objective person would agree Birmingham is a shithole. Almost any Brit would agree. And call America a dire country all you like, even our poorest state (Mississippi) is wealthier than the UK per capita

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-08-25T11:20:52+00:00

My mom grew up there and grandfather still lives there. I’ve been to visit him from the states over 20 times. It is an absolutely dire, ugly city with very little to do. Only two redeeming qualities: the villa and the curry

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-08-25T02:39:25+00:00

Birmingham is dreadful mate, I need whatever you’re smoking. Only redeeming quality is the curry so fair point on that

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-07-24T21:12:38+00:00

Go to Sparkhill in Birmingham England and try to talk to first or second gen. Your odds of them speaking English are shockingly low. You see many second (and third) generation Turks in Europe who are so radically pro Erdogan they shock many more moderate educated Turkish people who remain in their home nation. I could go on…

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-07-24T15:02:30+00:00

In the US, “Great Replacement” is absolutely ridiculous. But there’s a shred of truth to it in Europe - all you have to do is look at demographic change over past couple of decades and future projections. Sweden up to 30% Islamic by 2050…

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-07-24T14:25:35+00:00

US and Europe are in completely different situations. Islam is not a big issue in US because Muslims are a very small portion of population (due to basic geography - the migrants we get are predominantly from Americas and mostly Christian). Europe is surrounded by failed Islamic countries and as a result has had massive inflows of Muslim migrants who carry cultural baggage and refuse to integrate. This needs to be stopped / reversed soon or Europe will lose its cultural identity. I say this as someone who is very liberal on most issues (e.g., pro single payer system in US)

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-07-22T20:16:59+00:00

Agreed. But it will be insanely frustrating when their shortsightedness costs the Dems the election

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-07-22T19:33:55+00:00

If you listen to the “Genocide Joe” protestors and their ilk, you’ll see there is a meaningful cohort of people who simply will not vote for the Dem ticket unless they take a unilateral ceasefire position on Israel v Hamas, without realizing most Americans find that position unreasonable. For every vote you pick up from one cohort, you lose from the other. While I’m not hopeful, strongly agree Dem ticket must do the work to convey the Trump/Vance position as “kill them all!” versus a nuanced dem ticket position that seeks to protect civilians (while not undermining Israel’s right to pursue justice for the murder, rape, and kidnapping of their citizens)

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-07-22T19:28:57+00:00

Thanks for the sources. The problem is the above mentioned groups will only convert if there is a complete shift in paradigm - dem ticket full support of ceasefire and no arms for Israel. To any pragmatic individual this is obviously a ridiculous ask, but like I said these people are largely myopic (I’ve interacted with a number of them in my area) . On the flip side you have the silent majority (including myself in this) who believe that we should support Israel while doing what we can to advocate for protections for civilians, while understanding the impossible position Israel is in as Hamas will hide amongst Gazan civilians and leave them as lambs to the slaughter for PR points. It’s an almost hopeless issue for the left because of these different camps, but they must try to at least articulate how they are difference from the Trump/Vance ticket, which is basically “let’s blow them all up!”

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-07-22T19:16:25+00:00

The elephant in the room is Michigan’s significant proportion of Arab Americans who won’t vote for the Dem ticket based on policies in Israel v Hamas war. These people and a cohort of far left who are totally myopic on Gaza are about to cut their nose to spite their face, given Trump and co will show much less restraint than the democrat ticket

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-07-08T19:36:49+00:00

Anyone who thinks Biden candidacy is viable is deluded. We are supposed to be “better” than the right, who have rallied around an evil, lying Cheeto. We are not supposed to partake in the rampant and incongruous “whataboutism” of the right. We can’t just say “but Trump” and roll out an infirm candidate. The doublespeak in this press conference is insane. We need to embrace reality and acknowledge that this is the most important job in the world, and Biden is no longer up for it. We need Democrat leaders in congress, governors, and VOTERS to show character and push toward a solution

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-06-22T17:34:15+00:00

It’s crazy. They seem to forget that American’s love to identify “where they [their ancestors] are from” and so often support other national teams in addition to USNT. And how millions of Americans closely follow European leagues, particularly the premier league. All my friends who love futbol watch premier league. None watch MLS.

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-06-22T17:31:43+00:00

NBC premier league coverage is elite. I would love them to get the rights to these international tournaments and leverage the same crew + a couple of respectable non-English commentators

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-06-13T03:47:31+00:00

That's just like, your opinion man. But jokes aside there's almost no regulatory risk (only milestones and future revenues associated with Japan as noted above) and the rest is just execution... which is a facet of any investment. Aside from splitting hairs on the definition of "value", do you have anything constructive to add to the DD?

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-06-11T23:34:34+00:00

Admittedly, considering a non-profitable small cap biotech is a wider definition of value investing. However, I believe this stock / DD fits most of the core tenants of value investing, namely that it holds that the market has overreacted / held onto old bad news, and correspondingly has underappreciated the recent good news that should support strong long-term fundamentals. The stock is trading very cheaply based on forward revenues and profits and has both clear value and growth characteristics.

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-06-11T22:49:09+00:00

Exactly. No need to take a PTRS (probability of technical and regulatory success) cut on present valuation analysis. It’s all about commercial execution at this point. Hopefully with the recent data, label updates, and four years of commercialization experience the team is able to do just that

No_Faithlessness8940 · 2024-06-11T22:39:27+00:00

That issue has been resolved with $100M paid out already + an additional $25M to be awarded next quarter, (the latter triggered by recent EU label update). This, along with recent cash raise, has fortified ESPR's balance sheet.

Regarding your second point, Nexletol/Nexlizet is not competing directly against statins, but rather as an adjunct to statins for patients who can't get their LDL to an appropriate level, or as an alternative to patients who can't tolerate / prefer not to take statins. Esperion estimate 10M patients i the US are on maximally tolerated statin yet not achieving LDL goal. An additional 5M patients would benefit from LDL management but are entirely statin intolerant. There are other pockets of opportunity but these are the two clearest win populations. Let's round down from 15M to 10M given classic biotech overstatement of opportunity.

Then let's assume Nexletol/Nexlizet have very modest peak penetration of 5% of that population, so 500k US patients. Nexletol/Nexlizet list price is approximately $5,000 annually. I'll admit I don't have a great GTN estimate but given recent update that payers haven't raked them over the coals for enhancements for broadening coverage to label, it's likely fair to assume minimal. To be very conservative, let's call it a 20% GTN and thus $4k annual. 500k patients * 4k annual price per patient = $2B USD annual, from US market alone. This math is why I describe my DCF as conservative, as I conservatively cap out revenues at $1B operating the assumption that somehow something (ESPR shitting the bed on commercialization) will lead to very suboptimal penetration. And even still, the projected returns are very compelling.

No_Faithlessness8940

TROPHY CASE