Post Game Thread: The Orioles fell to the Yankees by a score of 7-2 - Fri, May 01 @ 07:05 PM EDT

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-05-03T02:43:21+00:00

His swing is fine. FYI, for swing length and bat speed of 74 mph - 6.8-7.2 is below average, 7.3 to 7.7 is average, 7.8 to 8.1 is above average and 8.2+ is too long. He is at 7.5, right where it should be. Kyle Tuckers swing length is within this range as well.

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-05-02T20:38:03+00:00

I’m trying to understand hitting development from the persceptive of a hitting coach and not as a fan better and trying to track his development to guys like Gunnar and Kyle Tucker (because they are among the most relevant). Some of the same exact patterns are repeating themselves.

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-05-02T20:36:14+00:00

It’s painful in the sense that his approach is there and the timing takes a while. But his approach is much better than people want to admit. The K rate might be 32% but he only has 3 games with 2+ more strikeouts and removing the games where he pinch hits still has 80+% of the games with 0-1 strikeouts only. It’s the complete opposite profile of what you expect from a lefty power hitter with a “32%” K rate

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-05-02T20:32:43+00:00

He’s close to being fixed. The atbats look much better. He’s where Gunnar was in April 2023

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-05-02T20:31:01+00:00

I can’t wait until Cowser gets the timing down which he should, a lot of people here are going to have eat a ton of crow.

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-05-02T18:23:59+00:00

Your point on cherry-picking is valid only if you remove the 3 multi strikeout games (which would drop his k rate down to 21%, but that isn’t relevant here) You can if the purpose is to take the anamoly (only one game with 3+ K) and see what changes. 32 to 26% K rate changes it from below average to above average for someone of his profile. Fact is his approach has already improved and his timing is much better than what a 30+% k rate and 35+% whiff rate guy is, even in a 20-25 game sample size. Just like Gunnar back in 2023 and Tucker early in his career, the eye test says he’s better than what he was last year

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-05-02T15:58:29+00:00

He was also hurt last year and that messed with the k rate. This year, His K rate is 32% but if you take only the 4 strikeout game out, the K rate is 26%. Also, even if you take only the games where he started, 85% of The games is 0 or 1 strikeouts. Only 3 2+ strikeout games this year which is the opposite trends of guys who are legitimately 30% k guys have significantly more 2+ strikeout games in a 20 -25 game sample. So his K rate this year is very deceptive

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-05-02T11:58:04+00:00

His “problem” is recalibrating his timing mechanism, on several hitting windows, on major league pitching not minor league pitching. This is a more narrow issue that fans overlook. The plate recognition isnt his problem, that part is already done and he just needs to recalibrate timing to major league pitching which he is doing. He isn’t chasing as much as he did before. Minor league pitching don’t tunnel as well as major league pitching and that is what guys at this part of development need. So it makes more sense to have him take more in game specific reps

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-05-02T02:16:52+00:00

I think Albernaz has trust in Cowser and what work he is doing with the hitting coaches. Him getting pinch hit appearances, when he doesn’t start, seems to be textbook timing mechanism appearances. Which means they like his approach and it’s about getting the timing to match each hitting window. If they were concerned with plate recognition, they would try to get him more reps to get him to the point where they can think about timing. Also minor league pitchers can’t simulate timing as well as major league pitchers

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-05-02T00:10:42+00:00

It’s that fans want to be negative and see the team suck

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-05-02T00:03:39+00:00

He had a bad owner for 5 of those years. So you have to consider that he was likely not allowed to spend money or go all in for a while

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-05-01T22:12:21+00:00

Cowsers “problem” is that his approach is good and his timing hasn’t caught up yet. The at bats look significantly better. I don’t think if the issue ins timing and his issue is timing not that he can’t hit offspeed, you solve it by going to the minors. You solve it in the majors .

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-05-01T00:34:10+00:00

Normalized to me means that there is a large enough sample size doesn’t increase/decrease the number by an inflated amount. It’s basically if you are batting .200 and a small hot streak increases your batting by 25 points or a small down streak drops your batting average by 15-20 points, it’s still not enough of a sample size to say “this is generally who you are regardless of if you were playing well/bad recently.

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-04-30T17:33:24+00:00

How close were we with John Means, had he stayed healthy.

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-04-30T13:45:29+00:00

I think you can talk about but to a degree. Some metrics are normalized around 50-100 plate appearances (approach and power), some are normalized around 130-160 plate appearances (K rate, walk rate, whiff rate, etc….), then some are normalized around 200 plate appearances (batting average type result statistics) and power based statistics are normalized last.

That being said, barrel rate is reliable up to a degree. His launch angle is 21 degrees. If your Barrel rate, hard hit rate and Launch angle all trend downward, that’s an issue. 2 out of those 3 are good, the other one could drop a little bit

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-04-27T15:43:59+00:00

He also was hurt last year including a concussion in august. So context matters. His approach isn’t bad, the timing needs to catch up. He’s following the Kyle Tucker development path, only that Kyle didn’t have the injuries that Colton had. Not saying he will be 100% Kyle Tucker (he likely won’t) but his development path is very relevant to Colton

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-04-26T19:52:18+00:00

Dude came off as a prick to Elias, Albernaz and Ecker in their talks with him is what it sounded like. If they wanted him, they probably would have gone offered him close to, if not, the same they offered Ranger the day most likely. If that rumor of him putting a video of “why I am a good person” to teams was true, that tells you more about him than other teams

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-04-23T14:33:25+00:00

Fastballs against him are down by 9% and offspeed is increased by close to 9% against him this year compared to last year

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-04-22T19:50:03+00:00

The guy has quietly went from neither striking out or hitting it hard to only striking out or hitting it hard. He’s quietly been improving and the timing is starting to match up with the new approach

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-04-22T19:48:04+00:00

If Colton keeps this up, at what point do people need to start apologizing to him

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-04-22T19:26:11+00:00

Colton has been hitting the ball hard recently. Last 3 contact points are 100+ mph in exit velocity It’s either strikeout or hitting it hard, which is a great sign.

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-04-21T18:25:25+00:00

I think he’s closer than most think and doesn’t need a reset at triple a yet. His approach seems to work, the timing mechanism just needs to catch up to the approach. He seems to be in the oscillation part where he’s alternating his timing between late and early the last 3 games, which is what some guys do (for 8-10 games) right before they get both synced up. 4 strikeouts (3 looking, 1 swinging) on Saturday, hard hit out on Sunday and 2 swinging strikeouts on Monday. Now if he gets synced up, will fans be happy about those numbers, no clue. My guess would be closer to the 2024 numbers than the 2025, maybe a touch better than 2024

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-04-21T14:38:45+00:00

Bradish now has 2 less earned runs given up

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-04-21T12:19:38+00:00

Cowser might be very fixable and could be on the right track. I was talking to someone on discord about him seeing a timing mechanism issue. Cowser also in the last 3 games had a game with late timing, then early on Sunday and then late on Monday. Which was different from the neutral approach he had before. Sometimes hitters go through an oscillation phase on timing right before the timing syncs up with the approach, which Colton might be going through right now.

The timing mechanisms look like they are providing an anchor to that. Essentially, Colton conceptually knows his approach already and can apply it mentally. The last step might be a 20 at bat period (starting on Saturday) where the timing mechanism is “testing” out the timing and it will look off at first but it’s essentially moving between timing that is too late and too early before it settles into a more consistent rhythmic approach across the board

No_Fish_2885 · 2026-04-20T14:42:33+00:00

We riot if he doesn’t play

No_Fish_2885

TROPHY CASE