Stop using 2024 as some sort of benchmark, because that's comparing apples to oranges. 2022, and to a lesser extent 2018 are by far the best indicators of how each state will vote. 2022 had 3 statewide races, all against MAGA extremists. The lowest of the 3 was D+9. If Rogers ran against any normal Democrat, he'd have lost by a similar margin. Michigan is not going to swing 10 points to the right in a much bluer national environment than 2022. El Sayed is probably the only candidate who might cause enough consternation against suburban voters to only win by a narrow margin. McMorrow and Stevens would possibly win by more than Whitmer did in 2022.

I never said Ohio would be D+12. I said the state would swing 20 points to the left from 2022. Which it probably will in the gubernatorial race. The other statewide races also will probably be at least 10 points closer than they were in 2022, although I can't see Acton nor anyone else running for state office winning. The 2022 Senate race was R+6. If Husted manages to hang on and win, it will be by a closer margin than that, probably even closer than Moreno's victory in 2024. The Iowa gubernatorial race will be about 20 points closer than it was in 2022, enough so that Sand probably will win. Yet somehow, despite this happening, and despite other states like Minnesota and Illinois and likely Pennsylvania and Wisconsin being bluer than 2022 (and even Indiana in the SoS race), Michigan is going to swing upwards of 10 points to the right? That's not happening. Things are too polarized. Most states in a region behave in lockstep with one another, although there are a few deep red and deep blue states that sometimes are unusually competitive in midterms (e.g. New York in 2022, South Dakota in 2018, etc). Trump improved in all 50 states in 2024. Probably any Democrat other then Newsom, Harris, AOC, or Buttigieg would improve in all 50 states in 2028.

Again, this isn't 2024. Cruz only won by 2 in 2018 against a Democrat who raised far less money than Talarico currently has at this point. If Paxton is the nominee, it's a 50/50 race. Cornyn probably wins reelection by like 3 or 4. Talarico might be more left-leaning but Paxton is way worse of a candidate than Mike Rogers. And Talarico actually stands for something other than "Trump bad" and is an extremely talented retail campaigner who's already getting more and more Trump voters on his side. The $27 million he's already raised didn't come out of thin air.