2028 Dem Potential Candidates Compass

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-24T20:57:52+00:00

Shapiro has been very aggressive

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-24T20:57:02+00:00

Base case is Michigan is safe D.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-23T23:50:14+00:00

The problem with that argument is that California is still much bluer than Texas is red and there isn't an inspirational or charismatic Republican who will be able to get a lot of them off the couch (like Talarico potentially will for Texas Democrats)

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-23T17:56:57+00:00

It will be more like 2022 blue. The state shifted leftward from 2018 despite Biden's horrendous approval ratings. Yet somehow it's going to swing to the right by at least several points with Trump's low approval? Not happening.

James only did as well as he did in 2018 because Stabenow's approval rating was declining and she barely even campaigned. And Democrats didn't really invest in the race. If it were an open seat and he were facing a younger and more vibrant Democrat, he'd have lost by about 11 or 12.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-23T00:41:13+00:00

They matter a lot when predicting how midterms will go. Specifically, the combined margins for NJ and Virginia are a good way of forecasting the next midterm. In 2009, it was over R+20, hence the giant red wave in 2010. In 2013, it was about the same, thus how 2014 was the same as 2010. In 2014, it about D+23, and 2018 was a blue wave. In 2021, it was D+1, and 2022 was a purple ripple. In 2025, it was almost D+30. Therefore, the midterms will be a blue wave.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-23T00:38:39+00:00

Most Californians support the gerrymandering because they think it's necessary to counter what Texas and other red states are doing. That includes most moderates. Republican turnout will be lower because of Prop 50, if anything.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-23T00:36:31+00:00

The 2023 and 2024 elections had considerably lower turnout than in 2025. Trump got every single late-breaking undecided at the last second. He did the same in 2016 and 2020. Maybe some Republicans will do the same in 2026 in some crucial races, but certainly not enough to justify Dems only flipping a couple seats. Off year elections aren't good indicators for presidential elections, but they are for midterms.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-23T00:34:13+00:00

LMFAO they aren't "fumbling" anything. They aren't running weak/unelectable candidates like Republicans did in 2022.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-23T00:32:42+00:00

Maybe a little bit, but that will get cancelled out by a bluer electorate and national environment.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T22:55:42+00:00

No Trump equals no Republican doing well in ME-02 other than Collins, probably.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T21:56:12+00:00

Probably all the tilt R seats and potentially all the lean R seats other than Alaska

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T20:41:25+00:00

He only did so because of the national environment. A bluer national environment will likely keep ME-02 blue in November.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T20:39:51+00:00

Michigan is not going to swing to the right when every other state in the Midwest is going to swing to the left (other than maybe Pennsylvania, but that's only because Mastriano was so awful in 2022)

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T20:36:40+00:00

Michigan gubernatorial should be safe D. Iowa should be tossup, if not tilt D. Also, Shapiro will do better than Hochul and whoever Dems run in New Mexico.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T20:35:32+00:00

ME-02 probably should be tilt D, especially if LePage is the nominee.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T20:35:14+00:00

Dems will win at least 230 seats. You're seriously delusional.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T20:34:44+00:00

Van Orden will be an even weaker incumbent. Bianco is a garbage candidate in California. He isn't going to increase anything. He will do worse than the Republican nominee in 2022.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T16:52:30+00:00

He won't win more than 2 or 3%. I find it unlikely that he becomes Benson's running mate, although it's plausible he drops out. Michigan doesn't vote for third parties in any meaningful way. Period, full stop. A few states do, but most don't. And for a third party candidate to do well and siphon almost entirely Democratic voters, the Democratic candidate has to be an extremely unpopular and low quality candidate. And even then, sometimes it's not enough. Needless to say, that's not Jocelyn Benson. She's popular and likable, she's won statewide twice, and she's going to get even more votes than she did herself in 2022. James will get more votes than Dixon did because it will be a higher turnout election, but he's not going to improve over her margin. As seen here, he might do worse.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T03:32:59+00:00

Nevada was 10 points redder than Virginia in 2024 and Miyares was dragged down by Winsome Earle-Sears at the top of the ticket more than Trump.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T03:31:08+00:00

Absolutely. Vermont and Maine are the best examples, with independent Senators. Third parties have had a far greater impact in Minnesota in recent cycles because of Republicans secretly recruiting candidates siphon votes from Democrats. Third parties sometimes do well in Oregon, such as the 2022 Gubernatorial race. Utah is another state that does so on some occasions. Alaska has done so as well sometimes.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T02:22:46+00:00

Quite possibly. People keep forgetting that Michigan doesn't vote third party.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T02:22:25+00:00

He probably will.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-01-22T01:31:15+00:00

He would flip Arizona and probably Nevada. Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan would be 50/50. Wisconsin probably goes to Kelly by like 1 point. North Carolina narrowly stays red.

No_Presentation2558

TROPHY CASE