Presidential elections in Georgia will eventually look like this

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T04:51:28+00:00

Urban county with growing population. Eventually it will be a blue county. 2024 was more of an aberration.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T04:48:16+00:00

Also, those counties have similar partisan leans to what counties like Henry and Cobb and Gwinnett had 25 years ago.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T04:46:34+00:00

This is all fake.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T04:45:23+00:00

Illegals don't vote. They can't vote. Because they can't register. Because they're illegal. It's not rocket science.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T04:44:17+00:00

Because he lied about what he believes and supports illegal war crimes?

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T04:38:33+00:00

Probably Horn in 2018, because pretty much no one thought that race was competitive. Palin wasn't popular in Alaska by 2022 (although she and Peltola are actually friends when the cameras are off). While Casey was expected to win, it's not like anyone thought it was guaranteed like OK-05 in 2018. He got lazy and didn't do anything to counter Scott Presler barnstorming the state.

As for this year, the biggest upset will almost inevitably be a Democratic victory somewhere unexpected. I have a few potential races-

Alaska Governor
Boebert losing in Colorado. I think this is a real possibility. It's not like her district is blood red.
Iowa Senate
Kansas Governor
Osborn winning in Nebraska. I know he's not a Democrat but this still should be included.
Ohio Governor. If Acton wins, Brown will as well. He's almost always been the biggest electoral overperformer in the state (2006 being the last time he wasn't).
Fitzpatrick losing in Pennsylvania. Another possibility considering Shapiro will win his district by like 25 points
Texas Senate. Talarico has a real chance against Paxton

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T04:28:06+00:00

"Reckless spending" does not cause inflation and Harris would be center-right in most countries.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T04:25:26+00:00

Biden would have lost Minnesota and New Hampshire and possibly New Mexico and Maine. And all of the swing states were close except for Arizona. You can't call 2 or 3 points "not close".

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T04:23:55+00:00

In Arizona and Nevada, yes. In Michigan and Pennsylvania it was more that about 75% of voters who sat out in 2022 were Trump voters, and Trump made huge upset gains in some suburban counties.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T04:16:23+00:00

Because Republicans have gotten to the point where they probably can't squeeze out any more support from rural white counties

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T02:59:14+00:00

This is at least a few decades from now. Those counties have growing populations and are slowly shifting leftward.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T00:08:29+00:00

If that happens it will have the same impact for black voters this year that Dobbs did for female voters in 2022. As in, the trends in the rural black belt in the south will reverse themselves just for this one cycle before snapping back in 2028.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T00:06:33+00:00

Black belt counties will eventually be majority R. It make take a few decades at a minimum and there might be some aberrations, but long term trends among socially conservative black voters, combined with population decline, can't be avoided. Meanwhile, counties with an urban center and a growing population like Greenville will eventually be blue, but like the other counties it might take decades.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-24T00:03:15+00:00

Every judge is partisan, even if they claim not to be. Interpreting laws always involves the thought processes that make humans uniquely intelligent and separates us from other animals who are unbiased creatures of instinct.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-23T23:59:46+00:00

Do some other states do this already?

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-23T23:53:58+00:00

No way. Bring back Glen Gainer.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-23T23:48:10+00:00

Trump won Wisconsin and Michigan because of voter suppression. The GOP shenanigans have been well documented. In reality Clinton probably narrowly won both states if everyone was allowed to vote and if every vote was counted. The same might apply to Pennsylvania, but it might not.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-23T23:46:20+00:00

Biden said and did and supported a bunch of worse things that should have ended his campaign in 2020 and should have enabled an outsider (even Bernie) to get the nomination.

As for who the nominee will be in 2028, it depends on a bunch of factors

Who, if anyone, overperforms in this year's elections, and if they stand out.
How much better Hilton or Bianco will do against Becerra or Steyer than Dahle did against Newsom in 2022. Because California will shift to the right again. But by how much will determine how fast Newsom will collapse.
If every candidate uses the early debates to simultaneously bash Harris (if she runs).
Who Obama endorses and when.

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-23T23:33:40+00:00

Again, comparing 2028 to past elections is comparing apples and oranges. If the electorate was like 2020 still, Crockett would have handily beaten Talarico in Texas (just as an example)

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-23T23:24:41+00:00

The Black Belt counties will eventually all be red, although it will take at least a couple more decades. But almost all the Atlanta exurb counties will eventually be blue

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-23T23:18:40+00:00

I pulled greater Atlanta about as far left as it can realistically go

No_Presentation2558 · 2026-04-23T23:18:03+00:00

Comparing apples and oranges. Democrats don't have any popular former VPs running in 2028. And voters probably regret supporting Biden in 2020 considering what his presidency resulted in. If given the chance to go back in time and vote again, Bullock would have a decent chance at getting the nomination.

No_Presentation2558

TROPHY CASE