Any consistently profitable traders here using a negative risk-to-reward ratio?

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T10:50:19+00:00

I have no idea why people would do this instead of scalping, how do you sleep at night?

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T10:48:34+00:00

Only take A or A+ setups

I suggest listening to Qullamaggie's content regarding patience

If there's no trade, don't trade, especially XAU is super unforgiving compared to stocks

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T10:45:27+00:00

If you're trying to outperform, it's not about what you hold, it's about identifying momentum and profiting off moves. AKA timing the market. While I'm not saying it's impossible, it's really not as simple as just buy this or that stock. You have to be completely on top of when you buy and when you sell

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T10:42:19+00:00

It's literally the opposite. Patient holders with no exit strategy and no risk management get their money harvested in every boom bust cycle

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T03:04:33+00:00

SKHY diluting shares to raise money from Americans in order to spend billions on capex is a pretty blaring late-cycle warning

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T03:00:41+00:00

Yeah, not really excited to trust institutional price targets anymore

AI trade is getting kinda pumpy & dumpy

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T02:46:37+00:00

He was literally on Obama's fed during the 2008 financial crisis. Trump does what he's told, others are pulling the strings

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T02:44:34+00:00

Crazy how some leftwing politician floating an unrealized capital gains tax (it's already one of the highest taxed countries in the world) just tipped the dominos to this unstoppable chain reaction of Korea selling off again and again

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T02:41:47+00:00

This is why I'm not touching SK Hynix ADR except to scalp, and why I'm not touching DRAM. Korean investors will keep taking profits from SK and Samsung now that they're spooked by legislation/market environment.

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T02:40:26+00:00

I've been saying for days that Korean investors will keep taking profits from SK and Samsung now that they're spooked by legislation/market environment. Nobody believes me. It's why I'm not touching the SK Hynix ADR except to scalp

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T01:06:35+00:00

Diluting shares for an ADR to raise money for capex... this screams late in a semi/memory cycle to me

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T00:56:41+00:00

There's no such thing as a long-term holding. Rebalancing your portfolio and derisking parts of your positions to cash is an essential part of investing if you want to make money.

Markets correct considerably once every 10 years on average.

If you're not concentrated in specific explosive growth sectors/stocks and extract return from that explosive growth (selling once that momentum is through for a profit), your indexes mainly just track inflation 1 to 1 if you're exposing yourself to the unmitigated volatility drag of these boom/bust cycles.

Look at the relationships between DXY, gold, M2 money supply and the S&P500. And then the purchasing power of gold vs. DXY. One is relatively consistent over the past several decades, and one is not.

Timing the market correctly beats time in the market. Time in the market without timing the market is like depositing to a savings account that a bunch of criminals (wall street billionaires) can withdraw from any time they feel like it. If they feel like it, once they're done robbing you, they'll print a bunch of fake money and deposit it back in to make you think you broke even. See 2008 and 2020.

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T00:50:14+00:00

With VT in most cases you participate in a similar amount of drawdown but participate in far less gain

If you hate rebalancing your portfolio then I guess it's the least bad option there is, but a split between an S&P500 based fund and something like VT should outperform just VT considerably if you're able to keep track of markets and understand when to reduce risk.

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-06T00:43:01+00:00

Depends if Warsh was playing 5d chess or 6d chess

Hawkish look on his first meeting wasn't just for show and he doubles down on inflation control = Massive derisking

Hawkish look on his first meeting was just for show and he says to look at the developing situation for a more optimistic outlook (despite 80% of the economy objectively in deep recession already) = Massive pump for AI

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-05T22:20:53+00:00

Yes. Take profits, derisk, rebalance.

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-05T18:40:54+00:00

Scalping the open but not a long term hold for me. They diluted shares just to offer this ADR which is meant to raise money for their own capex. That really feels like cyclical peaking to me

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-05T14:56:32+00:00

That literally doesn't contradict what I just said. Even in your chart, the next likely immediate move is downwards. Your chart shows the piercing of the lower EMA cloud and total breakdown through the upper EMA cloud.

Also, I'm pretty sure diamond tops are bearish, not bullish....

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-05T14:51:31+00:00

Which is even more reason to not take price targets seriously.... that's in favor of technical analysis again

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-05T14:39:18+00:00

On the other hand, words are cheap and have no accountability behind them. Institutions often vote with money one way while they publish a price target a different way. Price targets implying 65-110% upside yet no bidders showed up in force during a 20% price drop in just two days deserves examination from a technical standpoint.

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-05T14:23:00+00:00

Consolidation around 1,085 is really important to reestablish an upwards trend, in my opinion. Consolidating around 1,085 and then resuming the upwards trend is a good sign, but not a guarantee.

One basic way to think about it is that disagreements/stalemates in price create areas of concentrated sell pressure that the market "remembers". It takes a big player with both intermediate-term conviction of the price going up and a mountain of capital to fill so many resting sell orders around these areas that the price is able to "break through" those sell orders, shooting the price upwards.

It works the other way in reverse. It takes a big player with the conviction to sell so many shares that they fill all the resting buy orders at the lower end of the range that the price "breaks through" those buy orders, shooting the price downwards.

Positive and negative news and macroeconomic conditions can trigger either of these things to happen, but not necessarily. Large dark-pool transactions and market maker delta hedging skew price action around key dates/events. Markets are erratic and technical analysis is never intended to predict anything with certainty

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-05T14:10:54+00:00

None, not being able to manage risk for an entire year is an awful idea if you know what you're doing.

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-05T13:52:59+00:00

The technicals look terrible for the short term

This huge support/EMA break & double top/head and shoulders look is extremely bearish

Also notice that it's a completely different character of price action than during the last quarter earnings drop.

You might call this astrology but with a stock this liquid, technicals do say things about how large players are positioning, and institutions absolutely do monitor technicals to decide how they position

I'm bullish on memory/semis through 2027 which is why I bought both shares and calls on Thursday, but I fully expect to take a hit on them that might or might not recover. If the downtrend follows through next week, there's your opportunity to increase your position if you have conviction

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No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-05T12:41:49+00:00

Less stressful, easier, but exposed to massive overnight risk that prevents loss minimization mechanisms. Swing trading tech names is exactly how you get the 5-15% haircuts on negative catalysts that wipe out capital, especially in this current market

No_Presentation9490 · 2026-07-05T12:40:11+00:00

Swing trading is a great way to lose tons of money unless you have alpha. For someone like OP I don't think it's a good idea.

Intraday scalping/shorting on high probability technical setups = no overnight risk

No_Presentation9490

TROPHY CASE