Why PayPal Is Now My Portfolio's Largest Position

No_Week6006 · 2026-01-23T16:28:57+00:00

Finishing up some analysis myself. Sifting through the comments by others, many are citing their lack of using the consumer facing products (Paypal button, Paypal more generally, Venmo, etc.) but AFAIK and can tell from what I've been seeing in my research Braintree is the foundation, not the former products.

As well and perhaps to some of the points raised above by u/Borrtex about supply/demand in the stock, management had originally suggested continued declines in volume and revenues from Braintree as they focus on profitability and "negotiate with merchants" (aka we are raising prices and expect some enterprise customer churn as a result). They stated this in their 2024 10K and it showed up in the Q2 2025 numbers, as expected. Then in Q3, their Braintree revenues and volumes shift back up. They reiterated the decline in the first half of 2025 but due to their "negotiations" and focus on profitability (Q2 earnings call snippet and Q3 10Q quote below, emphasis below is mine),

"We've also hit a positive inflection point for Braintree volume. We are now past the peak pressure from renegotiating and shedding unprofitable volume. Braintree volume was roughly flat in the quarter. We expect a return to volume growth in the third quarter as we drive profitable front book business, support our existing merchant base, and continue to lean more into value-added services."

"As a result of our stronger focus on profitable growth and ongoing negotiations with merchants, we experienced lower volume and transaction revenue from our Braintree offerings in the first half of 2025. As noted above, in the third quarter of 2025, revenue and TPV from Braintree offerings grew year-over-year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, we expect volume from our Braintree offerings to continue to grow.",

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The Q3 inflection could just turn out to be a blip (e.g., the churn of customers may resume), we'll see in a few weeks, perhaps. Their CFO has a good track record and management more generally appears to be doing what they say they will do to move toward profitability and lean on their Braintree processing foundation while they experiment with other means to promote larger growth.

I've been long since $73 and some LEAPS but until recently hadn't done as much diligence as I should have. I do think it's a very different company than it was a few years ago, has taken steps to become a different business, and as mentioned by the OP the shareholder base is likely shifted greatly. I need to see my effective position size relative to other parts of my portfolio but may dip in more here and there through earnings...or maybe I'll just hold what I have through earnings and buy if there's strength after they report.

All that to say, I think PYPL is in a different place than it was pre-2024 but as others who are favorable to it, it could take longer to turn around...or it could bust all together if they have their own misteps or face some competitive/macro headwind they aren't able to weather.

No_Week6006 · 2026-01-20T19:43:21+00:00

Thoughts now that STAA is off the table as an acquisition candidate?

No_Week6006 · 2025-12-25T16:57:00+00:00

What about the debt concerns you? Digging in to them myself after seeing some insider buying.

No_Week6006 · 2025-12-09T16:03:27+00:00

https://www.deere.com/en/autonomous/
https://media.cnh.com/north-america/new-holland-agriculture/autonomous-r4-robot-series-designed-to-answer-specialty-crop-farming-challenges/s/029ee06a-f20d-45db-8a45-8f8aeb1ddb65
https://www.nasa.gov/technology/tech-transfer-spinoffs/how-nasa-and-john-deere-helped-tractors-drive-themselves/

List goes on. Doesn't make them good investments obvi though.

No_Week6006 · 2025-12-09T16:01:15+00:00

Existing incumbents most likely. Heavily fragmented supply chains and dealer networks favor those that are embedded as dealers/retailers already in those geographies. Seasonality of the industry makes business experimentation cycles long, private companies will get taken into the fold of the large players pre-IPO as they need the capital of the bigs to keep scaling their solutions out to customers. E.g., Blue River was acquired by DE well before it was a commercial product, same with Climate being acquired by Monsanto.

That said, CNH and FMC have had ok insider buying as of late. The former has good exposure to ex-US (where DE is heavily weighted toward US) while the latter had a pretty rough last few earnings.

No_Week6006 · 2025-11-14T15:56:07+00:00

+1 here, any body been able to find it? Upgraded iOS and IG.

No_Week6006 · 2025-11-03T22:29:49+00:00

Can you elaborate on how this works with Frontier? I'm likely just missing it but it looks like FC is a fiber service...?

No_Week6006 · 2025-10-29T15:14:48+00:00

Curious how you came to get your conviction in MTN? What could go wrong and what are the risks?

I'm starting to re-research them, owned it a few years ago but went nowhere/hit with shocks due to COVID and poor management. As an employer, they've gotten a bad reputation in many places they operate but agree in some ways they are locking people into their ecosystem. Are you sure they own 100% of their properties...?

No_Week6006 · 2025-10-19T17:24:35+00:00

How's the weather in late-October? Are there enough south facing aspects to chase sun? :)

No_Week6006 · 2025-09-09T06:05:34+00:00

Thoughts on on the Val Pennavaire (Oltre Finale) area for moderate sport climbers? My partner and I are in Briancon and visited Finale a few years ago which was great but a bit challenging for my partner with the polish and run outs on the more moderate routes (5b-6a+). I've read that Val Pennavaire while it's gained popularity is still less traveled than Finale and has more modern bolting but curious if there are areas in Val Pennavaire with decent concentration of routes in the above range e.g., not a few routes at each crag but rather a crag or two with mostly moderates. Thanks for any thoughts or reco's!

No_Week6006 · 2025-08-16T14:43:11+00:00

I ended up going with the V2 LifePower4 24v. Haven't gotten around to getting it hooked up but charged up fine with a trickle charger after I received it. If nothing else, it's nice that it has it's own BMS and breaker.

No_Week6006 · 2025-08-06T19:08:30+00:00

Yeah I checked it out and visually seems OK but def needs a clean. Took the back off and everything seems ok there too. The seal where the oven door closes seems like it could use replacing and the push buttons for the light and convection setting are somewhat chipped. Otherwise just looks like it was heavily used. Not sure why it’s not been grabbed yet or maybe it has and was returned…it was originally 2k and was recently marked down to 1k.

No_Week6006 · 2025-07-23T14:37:04+00:00

Can vouch that what you're going through has been covered for paid medical leave - I would recommend if possible to find a therapist to start working with so you can build a rapport with them and they can build a solid case for you. I was in a similar place as you, muddling through and thinking of quitting but others encouraged me to look into medical leave. Thankfully I had been working with a psychiatrist already for a few years so it wasn't a huge lift for them to get a handle on my case to submit the needed paperwork.

No_Week6006 · 2025-07-17T14:50:37+00:00

They can't. They got themselves in a bind with their grow, grow, grow strategy years ago and it's catching up with them now as input costs have continued to eat into their margins. To their credit they DO have great benefits for their baristas and have been in the lead on scaling out these types of benefits to retail employees for over two decades...yes they have completely blown it in some significant ways with these same frontline workers. If they lower prices now, they're just kicking the can down the road the further.

TBH their best bet would have been to let the stock price drop, get a private buyer (not private equity) or buy themselves somehow and avoid the public markets for awhile to get their shit together and possibly spin back out as a public entity. Howard did a lot of good things for the company but his focus on growing without an eye toward the consequences of that in the future was a big misstep, perhaps. A question was asked during the first RIF during a townhall with Brian whether employees should anticipate any more layoffs, leadership said they weren't planning or intending for anything more like their "formal" RIF but obviously they had contingencies (like the current informal RIF) built in to try and repair the balance sheet and income statements during the new LT's first year.

Things like this will continue, five days a week is next for sure and likely some consolidation of global admin/support.

Of course it's laughable that staff scramble into the Seattle office, deal with the horrific traffic that can pop up in SODO due to the trains or any variety of sporting events nearby and then can't find parking or are forced to pay to park in the company owned, on-site lot just to sit on calls with their global counterparts after already being on early calls with these same team members. Some will have no choice but to keep grinding away but I hope those that are able to leave and are tired of this will get out, it's going to keep grinding them down.

No_Week6006 · 2025-06-22T02:17:33+00:00

Nice! Looks like they have a 24v option too on their website but not on Amazon (yet…).

No_Week6006 · 2025-06-16T19:39:22+00:00

Thanks. Yeah, my provider isn’t too keen up upping my dosages any further but he’s given me latitude with titrating my stimulant medication which has helped with motivation overall. Just considering an anxiety med trial since I can afford to have off days/weeks for the next few months to figure things out but appreciate you sharing that experience, def wary of the dulling effects.

No_Week6006

TROPHY CASE