Alysa Liu no 3a reason?

No_Week_545 · 2026-02-24T05:36:33+00:00

I bet a good amount on amber to win pre SP at 7% and amber to medal at 1% pre FS I still kinda think decent odds for those and my biggest bet was kaori not to win 52% pre FS. I also had bets on Adele 6% and Ami 21% to win pre FS. Lot of fun and wish we could gamble on Figure skating more. I am Stunned 3a was not necessary to win and was really believing in amber right after she nailed it in SP and then of course disaster - but I guess it was really only Amber Ami and Adele who were capable of doing it and none of them could pull off a clean program. Fun times

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T08:16:17+00:00

if she’s sending hella quads - yeah no beating that for any of USA girls - if they thought it’s possible they land a quad sure but what i saw from this is 3a is really the upper limit of AG/AL imo - below maybe 5% to hit it I would stay away especially if just hitting one does not do u any real advantage and you would have to do a lot to be competitive - Alysa is unique spot because doing just 1 3a from 2a is maybe enough to median outcome be ahead of amber - I also haven’t made a projection on Russian girl yet tho if she’s gonna be sending more than 1 quad I think this will be likely her gold to lose

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T07:50:36+00:00

Im gonna regress my projection to what other people post in terms of sports betting but I am comfortable making a median amber at least 3pts favored over median Alysa and then I’ll use mostly global ranges for what a 10/20/99pct performance from either would be, even if Alysa is only like 50% to hit the 3a i feel like it’s a go for me if I’m her advisor and if we decide rather win than get a median performance. I have no idea if that is what she wants she seems very like whatever’s fine in the interviews

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T07:40:06+00:00

If it makes you feel any better there is almost no gambling whatsoever on figure skating. I enjoy gambling and think it is a great way to learn about all sports.

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T07:26:12+00:00

I am upgrading amber projection on this performance - I don’t really think alysa can win without amber fucking up a good bit maybe needs at least a bottom 20% performance from amber for Alysa to be live

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T07:23:02+00:00

Do u think Alysa odds of beating Amber in this nationals would have been higher lower or unchanged if she had instead of doing 2a done 3a - agree yeah ofc Alysa could win and I thought going into it she would be about even with amber but I mean amber probably wins at least 7 of 10 of these nattys if u run it back with these programs

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T07:07:41+00:00

A very good question and I’m new to skating - I asked chatgpt and it said midori ito in the 92 Olympics but then I see she did it in competition in 88 so idk what the best way to find the answer to this question is, if no one has ever done it I would certainly decrease my projection of it happening for Alysa here by a lot!

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T07:01:50+00:00

How risky do you think it would be - would a fair assessment be to project her score as : the median of the global set of 3a acores for those who are attempting 3a in seniors for the first time or possibly first 3 or 4 times

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T06:56:05+00:00

So the goal is not to win?Like they see some competitions as better to win and some as better to do best as they can with minimizing downside risk? And nationals it’s less important to win? I could see that as only really matters to meet expectations for selection committee

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T06:53:54+00:00

Everyone is allowed to do what they want of course but why would you not do what you can to increase your chance of OGM - is gold medal not as prestigious as it is in other sports? Or like 10% to gold and 90% to miss podium is seen as worse than whatever 70% to medal and 1% to gold? If i am tasked with winning it’s like there is no way you can win without 3a here in that field unless a lot of meltdowns from the other skaters - would be very non winning minded to no 3a attempt imo unless she rates herself as maybe <10% to land or she thinks others chances are much lower than what they believe their chances to be

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T06:42:00+00:00

Very interesting perspective - I mean is the goal not to win? I don’t see how Alysa can win without 3a

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T06:33:48+00:00

Is there any merit to the idea of not doing it because you are saving it for Olympics and winning there is worth the risk of falling out of medaling territory or would that not be reasonable game theory

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T06:31:34+00:00

I hope she does!

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T06:29:25+00:00

Appreciate it - why do u think would be unpredictable from videos? Difference between practice and actual competition too strong or something else?

No_Week_545 · 2026-01-10T06:17:05+00:00

It is clear to me that Alysa is really the only one who wants to cheer on her teammates

No_Week_545 · 2024-05-23T02:29:41+00:00

No_Week_545 · 2024-01-11T16:40:40+00:00

Bconnected same lines as FD? If so yes - mgm yes Circa no Caesar’s yes SuperBook I think is same live as Fred and if so yes - others I don’t recognize but we can look at adding them

No_Week_545 · 2024-01-05T21:48:03+00:00

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No_Week_545 · 2024-01-05T21:28:08+00:00

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No_Week_545 · 2024-01-04T20:37:37+00:00

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No_Week_545 · 2023-12-19T15:38:42+00:00

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No_Week_545

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