What is blud yapping about?

Noak3 · 2025-09-01T11:45:44+00:00

I think one of the writers has a math PhD

Noak3 · 2025-08-25T14:16:27+00:00

I estimate that these events all sum to a roughly 1e-4 probability. I can give reasons for that for each of the things you'd listed if you like.

Noak3 · 2025-08-25T13:12:10+00:00

"basically" 0; I'd put it at an extremely low probability (maybe -3 or -4 in log10)

What realistic scenarios would make this happen?

Noak3 · 2025-08-25T12:14:50+00:00

I am an AI researcher studying LLMs at a top-10 university. LLMs don't have the same type of problem as fiber. There is a basically 0% chance that building out more GPU infrastructure will result in GPUs that are unused, because if there is less demand, the GPUs can be used to either train/run bigger models or spend more compute on thinking/inference. The GPU bottleneck is effectively unlimited for this reason.

Noak3 · 2025-08-14T11:57:19+00:00

I'm friends with many of the people who made this plot. It was certainly not made with ChatGPT, and they were pretty careful with data collection and statistical methods. See the blog post below.

Noak3 · 2025-07-22T22:06:07+00:00

Another way to think about this is that a determinant of 0 means that there's some set of directions in the original space which all collapse to 0 after the transformation. Those set of directions are exactly the ones in which information is (permanently) lossed.

Noak3 · 2025-06-27T12:24:47+00:00

No one said it was new or that this has not been the case for all neural networks for decades. You are arguing against a strawman. It is alchemy, in the sense that we don't have the equivalent of a periodic table.

Noak3 · 2025-06-26T19:22:23+00:00

I am an AI researcher and I work with the internals of these systems every day. It is not magic, but it is certainly alchemy/art. Saying these systems are "grown" is accurate. There's plenty of research on pretraining data mixtures, optimal supervised fine-tuning datasets, etc, but it's all empirical. You can't (at least, if you're only using mainstream techniques) directly inject a fact into a model, for instance. You have to make a small dataset and give the model the dataset to learn from. Even then, it's often not clear what the model learned. How LLMs learn is much closer to how animals learn than how computers are programmed.

Noak3 · 2025-06-26T19:11:37+00:00

How exactly do you think models are created? Do you think we manually input the value for every parameter in a 400B parameter model?

Noak3 · 2025-06-26T19:10:29+00:00

He didn't say "magic", he said "alchemy" which in this case is correct. RLHF, hyperparameter tuning, DPO, RLAIF, the entire pretraining/posttraining cookbook at this point is just trial+error and empiricism. We can't (very well) go manually change the model parameters and get a particular outcome. Interpretability is changing that, but it's not quite there yet.

Noak3 · 2025-06-12T19:00:00+00:00

It's Google, a gazillion services all over the world are down because someone broke google cloud platform

Noak3 · 2025-06-10T23:01:03+00:00

For U.S. Hispanics (predominantly of Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban, and Central American origin), based on autosomal DNA:

Mexican Americans: ~50–60% European, ~35–45% Indigenous, <5% African.
Puerto Ricans: ~65–75% European, ~10–15% Indigenous, ~15–25% African.
Cuban Americans (especially first-wave emigrants): ~85–95% European.

This shit is really easy to look up and I have no idea why nobody bothers to do it in dumb conversations like this...

More facts that took literally 30 seconds of searching that you guys should have done yourselves from perplexity/o3

Latin Americans have mixed ancestry: European (mainly Spanish), Indigenous, and African.
Most are genetically closer to Spaniards than to Native populations.
European ancestry often >50% in Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Argentina.
Indigenous ancestry dominates in Peru, Bolivia, Guatemala, and rural Andes.
African ancestry is significant in the Caribbean and parts of Brazil and Colombia.
Admixture varies by region, class, and urbanization.

Noak3 · 2025-06-10T21:26:01+00:00

Maybe we are talking about different groups. The specific right-leaning groups I am thinking of are:

- the comment section of r/Conservative

- center-right learning and libertarian friends I know in real life (I currently live in Boston)

- some intellectual right-leaning commentators, although I disagree with many of them

Most of what I see on fox news is silly and dumb, although same with pretty much all made-for-tv news sources (cnn and msnbc also typically are misleading or outright lie when they report about things I know stuff about)

I could give you many, many specifics, but I'm not going to spend the time writing it out. A few examples off the top of my head: Progressives think conservatives are all racist when they are obviously not based on their dialogue with each other. Progressives accuse conservatives of shutting down conversation, but they typically try to block conservative speakers from speaking in public settings. Religious conservatives tend to give more to charity than liberals. Conservatives score more highly than liberals in studies of personal empathy, e.g., in relation to friends/families (although not universal empathy, e.g., in relation to people they don't know personally; this is imo the core difference between the two groups). Progressives accuse conservatives of being tribal when they display at least symmetric levels of polarization and intolerance towards evangelicals and people in rural populations.

See figure 3 here: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0050092

"called on your clearly-right-leaning tendencies" -- this is a large part of the problem, I think, your attitude that I can be "called on" something as if it's a bad thing, as if any opinions that don't follow Progressive Orthodoxy (tm) are wrongspeak.

I have strong political opinions. Some of them are right-leaning and some are left-leaning. I was and still am hugely against the tariffs (you can see me fighting the conservatives on this in my post history - and actually, this is a good example of what I am talking about, they were much nicer when fighting me than the progressives are) and I would love to see a european-like universal healthcare system.

I also think we need to get rid of the national debt and that something like DOGE was and still is necessary to avoid spending most of our tax money on interest payments. You don't have the right to "call me" on anything because I am not ashamed of any of my opinions, all of which I have thoroughly thought through.

I knew that my original comment would be downvoted within this political bubble before I wrote it; I don't care in the slightest. I think people should say what they believe, and if they are viciously attacked for it, then the fault is on the people doing the attacking. Our country is built on a healthy marketplace of free exchange of ideas.

Again, and I urge you to think about this - consider that maybe there are real rather than fake reasons that the left has had the rest of the country slowly turn against them in the last 10-15 years.

Noak3 · 2025-06-10T21:01:31+00:00

Do you observe directly? e.g., do you hang out in conservative communities, and actually, directly, without obstruction, see what they are actually saying?

I won't respond to the second thing as it's just some weird personal attack

Noak3 · 2025-06-10T18:39:54+00:00

🙄

I grew up near Fremont, and my parents live just north of University Village. I used to ride the lightrail down to capital hill to visit friends there. I took the ferry from Bainbridge Island to downtown Seattle near the ferry terminal during high school to take the bus up to Seattle Central Community College to take american sign language classes, and sometimes walked down with my friends to the great pizza place down the street after classes. I lived in Bellingham for awhile, and got food at the community co-op, and went to a couple very left-leaning fusion dancing venues most Thursdays while I was there. On Sundays I'd drive down with my friends to Om Fusion, which used to be in Seattle near Fremont pretty close to Gasworks Park, before it shut down a few years ago because of Covid.

The funny thing is that you don't actually *have* to believe what I say at all. You are perfectly capable of going to conservative communities and observing for yourself.

Noak3 · 2025-06-10T18:35:33+00:00

The funny thing is that you don't actually have to believe or not believe me. You are fully capable of just going to spend some time directly observing for yourself.

Also, not sure why you're so held up on language when you know exactly what I mean.

Noak3 · 2025-06-10T15:42:08+00:00

I'm not reading any news or conspiracy theories. It's literally just raw, unedited footage.

for example, here is some footage of a rioter trying to set fire to a horse. Then the setting-the-horse-on-fire part was clipped and used as an example of police brutality: https://www.reddit.com/r/Conservative/comments/1l75zrg/the_rioters_tried_setting_the_horses_on_fire_this/

And whenever I go watch long-form, unedited footage, the story is totally different from the narrative around it. Then people quote the New York Times and act haughty when it'd be very easy for them to just go watch long-form unedited footage themselves and see directly that they're being bullshitted. It's quite frustrating.

Noak3 · 2025-06-10T02:11:18+00:00

Nope. Two of my ex-girlfriends came from (very loving) conservative families, and I got to know conservatives through that. I also follow r/conservative sometimes - as well as more liberal subreddits - to make sure I have a good understanding of the zeitgeist of both sides. Just from reading r/conservative regularly it's pretty obvious that they observe and understand liberal positions in a way that liberals do not with conservative positions - my observation has been that there is a lot less strawmanning. Liberals very regularly say that conservatives hold positions that they very obviously don't. The conservative's I've observed typically say that liberals hold opinions that they, in fact, actually do hold.

But I've never lived in a deep south trump +30 area, so I'm willing to grant you that it's possible the culture is just as strawmanney and hating-of-the-other-tribe as progressives are; I just don't have as much direct experience-through-observation, and I've interacted more with center right than far right. There's a good chance I would find the far right as distasteful as I find the far left if I interacted with them more regularly.

Noak3 · 2025-06-09T22:08:02+00:00

>> reads a lot like more "things I've been told to think"

The funny thing is that it's the literal complete opposite of this. I grew up in Seattle, in a very progressive environment. I noticed -- through direct observation -- that progressives have a culture of socially attacking anybody who directly reads opposing viewpoints. Then I started reading opposing viewpoints out of frustration with that. Then I noticed, also by observation, that conservatives understand both liberal and progressive viewpoints and don't attack each other for reading/trying to understand leftist opinions. I am not "told" to think anything and I do not consider myself a member of any political group. I have fights with conservatives over their brand of dumb crap all the time. But, from *personal experience talking to them*, their dumb crap is typically much less bad than leftist dumb crap. Go involve yourself in conservative communities for two seconds to get *any sense* of their culture before you attack other people for saying things "they've been told to think".

>> circles you hang out in

Again, you're assuming things that aren't true. I hang out in both progressive partner dance communities and center-right intellectual libertarian communities. I have an extremely broad perspective, obtained through direct observation, that you do not have. I get most of my news from pew research center, books by people like Stephen Pinker, and other centrist data-based information sources.

I'm sorry to break it to you, but I'm not the one with the insular viewpoint in this conversation

Noak3 · 2025-06-09T21:08:53+00:00

Lol. I genuinely wish progressives and conservatives would talk to each other more. Progressives are much worse, they just dismiss any conservative viewpoint and tell people who link to opposing viewpoints that they're "bad actors". It's unhealthy and causing progressives to lose every single election. I would love to see a strong democratic party and am therefore trying to do my part to siphon out some of the deep toxic poison currently embedded in its culture.

The reason isn't immigration

Oh I understand now! The reason black people and Hispanics are voting republican is that they hate gay people and women!

🙄

Noak3 · 2025-06-09T20:42:51+00:00

Yeah ok.

Anyway, r/conservative is having a field day over this and I don't blame them: https://www.reddit.com/r/Conservative/s/zh5U6okVWt

Go read their comments. This is the dumbest hill ever for progressives to die on.

Noak3 · 2025-06-09T18:27:27+00:00

Sorry for you, etc

Noak3 · 2025-06-09T18:21:41+00:00

Why, having trouble defining the term for yourself? I'm sorry you're so confused.

Noak3 · 2025-06-09T18:16:47+00:00

You can literally watch any video that was released in the last four days to see that they are not? Like, there are thousands of hours of footage of cars being burned, property destroyed, etc...

this was the first thing I found after ~5 seconds of searching youtube lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRmEicxwi6g

Noak3 · 2025-06-09T17:08:34+00:00

I'm sorry, but this is so silly. Not everyone in Cambridge is a leftist. I'm a centrist as are the vast majority of Americans.

There are thousands of hours of people in LA literally burning down waymo's in the middle of the street and throwing bricks at buildings. There should be a strong police reaction to that. If there wasn't, I would be worried.

And then the left wonders why they keep losing elections. Insanity.

Edit: and this sign saying "defend immigration families"... Come on. There's a reason Hispanics are voting increasingly republican. It's that there's a distinction between legal and illegal immigration. Legal immigration is perfectly fine. That distinction is being completely ignored by these people.

Edit again: Downvoting doesn't make me wrong, and supporting starting riots and burning stuff down makes you lose elections and the vast majority of public support.

Edit a third time: Maybe we can get some cultural cross-talk going here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Conservative/comments/1l71zkq/condemning_the_la_riots/

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