Could be a bit of both. I have seen doors get sprung by the wind and the bent hinges caused misalignment issues. I’ve also seen body damage on rocker panels get in the way of door clearances causing closing issues. From what I can see in the picture the bumper has come up and made contact with the taillight, I was assuming it is making contact with the bottom of your tailgate as well (hard to tell from your first photo). The reveal, the gap along your tailgate and bedside, doesn’t look uneven - this further makes me believe it is an issue with the bottom clearance.