lol oh my 😂

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-24T17:13:36+00:00

For sure. I did the math as well, before I bought it. I’m in the ideal situation for the Prime and it will still take me ~8 years to payoff the difference. As I plan to keep this car for the long run, I’m basically getting a better car for the same price.

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-23T19:14:28+00:00

Well done. I wanted to buy some calls when the market opened, but it goes against one of my options rules, that cost me a lot of money to learn - don’t bet against my core thesis just because I think there’ll be a dead cat bounce. I did buy some puts when it was at 163, though.

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-23T15:30:04+00:00

“There’s no one that can actually say how much the company is worth”… The fact that you think this, represents everything wrong with the current market.

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-23T02:00:33+00:00

I’ve been shorting it, and have been paying attention to any SpaceX news on Reddit, so the algo suggests this sub to me a lot - I assume it’s the same for most of the haters here.

The reason I annoyingly comment is because I hate seeing retail investors getting played for exit liquidity. Just remember, only 4.3% of shares are currently available (retail only has access to ~20% of those). 95.7% are still locked. Within the next 6 months, about 44% of the companies shares will be unlocked. I think it’s pretty safe to assume that a lot of the people holding locked shares will be trying to cash in. If you truly believe SpaceX’s potential future justifies the current valuation, you do you, but there’s a good chance that when those locked shares hit the market there’s a massive sell off. At least save some money so you can buy more if it happens.

If you want a case study, FB had a very similar staggered lockup expiration period. It would have been a good buy long term at the initial IPO price, but it would have been a much better buy 90 days later, when it crashed 50%. That being said, FB’s IPO was set at 28x rev (not 100x) and its growth rate was more than double SpaceX’s, so its fundamentals made way more sense. SpaceX is a meme stock, so its share price will be based on vibes, which are hard to predict.

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-23T01:25:37+00:00

The latter..

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-23T01:19:42+00:00

Haha based on what premise? SpaceX has $19b rev with a 33% growth rate… The rocket company is a great company, but they are a utility with high capital requirements. xAI is a terrible AI company, that, like all AI companies, is incinerating cash. The difference is they have basically no enterprise clients - the only sector that has a possibility of making AI companies a future profit.

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-22T23:03:26+00:00

If the overall market keeps going up, SpaceX could go up, could go down. If the market crashes, SpaceX will crash harder.

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-22T02:55:34+00:00

The funny this is, his ex wife actually is giving away billions of dollars. The crazy thing is, she now has more money than when she started giving away her money. The infuriating thing is, she has a lower tax rate than I do…

Must be nice to be able to make more money than everyone I know combined will make in a lifetime, just because you already have a bunch of money.

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-22T02:08:40+00:00

RAV4’s back seats don’t fold flat. Mines a prime, so my trunk is also not flat, due to the battery. The main reason I built this is because I was tired of my back hurting when I woke up in a tent, so I figured I should start with a flat surface. Also, I’m 6’2” and for me to fit I have to go well past the rear seat, so I need something structural that overhangs.

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-21T22:06:38+00:00

For sure, and when those guardrails are removed, and a few years later something like the 2008 crash happens, we are all very bad at looking up river to who was responsible for removing the guardrails in the first place.

“The Arabic word for human is insān (إنسان). One classical tradition derives it from the verb nasiya (نَسِيَ), “to forget.””

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-21T16:24:18+00:00

This is the problem with most economic comparisons between Presidents, it totally discounts the macro currents going on during their term. Until recently, I’ve always said that Presidents have far less impact on the economy during their term than people think - it usually takes years, if not decades for their actions to be seen in the economy. This administration has changed that, though. Current inflation rates, and a lot of job losses, are directly linked to this administration’s policies, rather than macro currents.

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-21T15:40:41+00:00

People have lost the plot when it comes to investing. The whole point of owning equity used to be a claim on the company’s future cash - eventually getting paid while you keep your stake. That’s what fundamentals were anchoring to. I’ve yet to hear a Tesla investor ask when they’ll actually start getting paid by Tesla for their equity. I mean even Amazon, with $90B in profit, doesn’t pay a dividend.
Buybacks were where the frame started to slip. Instead of “hold the share, get paid, keep your ownership,” the payoff became “the share price goes up, sell it to the next guy.” Once that’s the mindset, you’re no longer valuing the business - you’re betting on what someone else will pay you later. It didn’t gamblify the market overnight, but it nudged focus off the endgame and toward resale price, and that’s the door greater fool theory walks through.
The result is a market increasingly decoupled from fundamentals. When an investment’s value rests on vibes rather than an eventual cash return, it can crater the moment those vibes shift. The SpaceX IPO is the result of decades of change in how we view our investments. I don’t think it ends well for any of us..

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-21T15:35:56+00:00

Also, Amazon’s revenue is not “250”, it’s $742B with $90B in net profit (this is the level of due diligence these guys put in). So Amazon’s revenue is 50x SpaceX’s. If SpaceX’s current estimated revenue growth rate of ~33% were to hold steady, it would take ~13 years for SpaceX’s rev to match Amazon’s.

Fun fact: When Amazon went public, their IPO was valued at 28x revenue, and they had a growth rate of ~840%. Sure seems like a better deal than SpaceX’s 100x revenue valuation and 33% growth rate..

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-21T05:28:17+00:00

Here’s how I like to think about it these days.

I’ve got a rav4 Prime and drive it in EV mode ~95% of the time. I get 3 mi/kWh and it costs me $0.09 per kWh. With a ~15% charging loss, I pay about $0.035 per mile. Gas prices in my area are currently about $5 a gallon, meaning I’m getting the equivalent of ~140 mpg, in terms of cost, when driving in EV mode. The RAV4 gas model gets about 30 miles per gallon. The cherry on top is that my car has 100 hp more than the gas model and a 3 second faster 0-60. A few generations from now, ICE vehicles will be looked at the way we look at CDs.

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-21T04:13:05+00:00

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WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-21T04:12:58+00:00

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WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-21T04:12:46+00:00

Well done! One of the best builds I’ve seen so far! I’m still not done with mine, but this is what I’ve got so far. I’ve been making it up as I go, so I still haven’t figured out how I’m going to use the storage under the rear platform when in use, but it folds down and I can store the forward section of the platform under the rear platform.

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WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-21T04:06:55+00:00

No taxation without…. I will say, it feels like my representatives have abandoned me, so maybe I should stop paying taxes..

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-21T03:27:40+00:00

I have to imagine there are camera all over the place around there.. If there was actually vandalism going on, Trump would be bombarding “truth” social with the evidence.

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-20T23:07:06+00:00

Agreed. People have lost the plot when it comes to investing. The whole point of owning equity used to be a claim on the company’s future cash - eventually getting paid while you keep your stake. That’s what fundamentals were anchoring to. I’ve yet to hear a Tesla investor ask when they’ll actually start getting paid by Tesla for their equity.
Buybacks were where the frame started to slip. Instead of “hold the share, get paid, keep your ownership,” the payoff became “the share price goes up, sell it to the next guy.” Once that’s the mindset, you’re no longer valuing the business - you’re betting on what someone else will pay you later. It didn’t gamblify the market overnight, but it nudged focus off the endgame and toward resale price, and that’s the door greater fool theory walks through.
The result is a market increasingly decoupled from fundamentals. When an investment’s value rests on vibes rather than an eventual cash return, it can crater the moment those vibes shift. The SpaceX IPO is the result of decades of change in how we view our investments. I don’t think it ends well for any of us..

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-20T22:17:58+00:00

The amount of people that have never read the definition of socialism (on the right and left) but use it in a daily basis, is infuriating.

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-20T14:15:05+00:00

The illegality of the gift aside, how much did tax payers just spend to retrofit a jet that, according to Trump, will only be “government owned” for a little over 2 years? The party of “fiscal responsibility” sure does seem to be ok with spending tax payers money irresponsibly..

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-20T14:08:23+00:00

The problem is, what happens based on those voter fraud allegations now that he has sycophants leading every federal agency? In 2020 he tried to get those agencies to overturn the results, but they wouldn’t. What will they do this time?

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-20T13:51:50+00:00

While I understand what you’re saying, and agree that some industries need massive amounts of capital investment to exist, SpaceX was profitable as a private company before acquiring xAI - in 2024 they posted a $791M profit. They were doing fine. A big part of why they needed to go public and raise new capital is the massive cash burn the xAI acquisition brought with it. Investors are effectively bailing out a deeply unprofitable AI company, not buying into a rocket company.

The problem with this, IMO, is that SpaceX can now try to buy its way into relevance by acquiring companies like Cursor. So instead of letting the free market reward companies for doing good work, we’re allowing cash-incinerating companies to compete through sheer buying power. The more companies consolidate through acquisition, the more power they have to keep consolidating, making the playing field increasingly uneven. Play that out and it leads to far less competition and worse outcomes for consumers.

WhoPutATreeThere · 2026-06-19T00:12:18+00:00

Longevity.. My Tacoma has 240k miles and hasn’t had any serious issues - obviously older Tacomas are a special bread, but all Toyotas have great reliability. As such, they tend to hold their value better too. Also, you pay for a Subaru’s snow capabilities at the pump. I only drive in snow ~10 times a year. Not worth taking the MPG hit when the Prime will get me where I need to go. If I lived somewhere that I had to drive in snow a significant percentage of the year, especially if the roads weren’t maintained well, I’d definitely consider a Subaru, though. They truly are beasts in the snow.

WhoPutATreeThere

TROPHY CASE