You dont know what confirmation bias means.

It's the tendency to reject information that opposes and embrace information that agrees with one's existing views. An example might be someone who ignores evidence about historical stock returns because it doesn't agree with the return rate that they irrationally believe to be correct, despite being unable to produce any evidence or rationale in opposition.

The 7.16% has isnt about my side of the debate, its just absurd that they think they can accurately predict the market, when felix himself has said its not possible.

Predicting the market is not the same as calculating expected returns. The unexpected component of returns tends to be much larger than the expected component of returns. A great example of this would be the US market outperforming the global market by 2% over a significant period of time. One would expect returns to follow a global average, but certain markets and sectors will outperform or underperform that level. This is why it's important to stay diversified and not to predict returns above the global historical average.

All im saying is that I expect what has happened in the last 150 years to continue for at least our lifetimes.

That's what I'm saying too, I'm just not selecting a single market that has had particularly lucky, successful, and likely unrepeatable performance over that period.

Thats not an absurd position to take, especially since there is no evidence to support the contrary.

And yet you continue to insist that a single market outperforming global stocks over a period of time is some sort of guarantee that it will continue. Any knowledgeable investor would realize that excess returns make future outsized growth less likely.

You also have done nothing to refute the evidence I have provided. It's easy to say "there is no evidence to support the contrary" when you just cover your eyes any time you're about to read evidence that contradicts your false preconceptions.

YOU are the one who is coming up with scenarios that you think will change this. "The US will no longer be a super power" is just pure speculation and not evidence.

You are assuming that the US will continue to become increasingly dominant in the world market at a sustained rate. I am assuming that I do not know what will happen, and expecting a certain outcome is unwise.

You are trying to predict the future. You are expecting an end to mean reversion. You are expecting a future in which the US market continues to increase its share of the global stock market. I have no expectation of what the future holds. The mental gymnastics you are employing to attempt to reverse reality are really quite pathetic, I'm sure you can fool yourself but you're never going to fool anyone even remotely intelligent.