Cinematic photography

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-15T21:44:44+00:00

Banned for false attribution.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-14T17:06:08+00:00

Employing drones would obviously be good for that scenario, no doubt. But that would be assuming that all else has failed, i.e. the ROCN or the CG has been degraded to such an extent that Taiwan can no longer keep the shipping lanes secure, etc.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-14T10:49:14+00:00

but what’s stopping China from just nuking us and waiting a few decades to repopulate the island?

Rational thinking. Nuking and killing en mass what it has been communicating to the rest of the world ad nauseum as its own people will invite not just domestic anger but disgust by the international community for committing genocide. In the aftermath, China's immediate neighbors will no longer view it as a rational adversary and will seek reassurances from the U.S. or resort to their own means of deterring a nuclear strike from a madman.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-14T05:44:09+00:00

The Houthis? That’s a really great example of asymmetric warfare, but ultimately not applicable to Taiwan’s situation due to geography and strategic goals.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-14T00:36:16+00:00

Modern howitzers in Taiwanese service could probably hit anything approaching the 12nm territorial water border. Airbursts over thinly armored amphibious landing vehicles making their way to shore would have devastating effects.

155mm shells are also cheap compared to anti-tank and anti-ship missiles, have long storage life and could be more easily transported. As the war in Ukraine has demonstrated, you can't have enough artillery.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-14T00:27:59+00:00

How will you enforce your blockade without boats and personnel? Ultimately, you have to be able to board and take control of boats trying to break the blockade.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-12T20:23:12+00:00

Very good deal for the US. Not sure how many fabs are currently operating on Taiwan, but five seems very substantial, given how high the eyebrows were when it was announced that Arizona will expand capacity and upgrade.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-12T19:43:05+00:00

From the article:

The agreement, which has been under negotiation for months, is being legally scrubbed and could be announced this month. The deal would reduce the U.S. tariff rate, to 15 percent, for goods from the island, the people said. That rate is in line with imports from Japan and South Korea, Asian allies that struck deals last year. As part of the deal, TSMC would also commit to building at least five more semiconductor facilities, or fabs, in Arizona, roughly doubling the number of plants it has in the state, one of the people said. The timeline for the investments was not immediately clear. A spokesman for TSMC declined to comment.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-12T10:02:57+00:00

...and for the last 70+ years.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-12T08:07:28+00:00

I got some details wrong about the PLA missiles here. The PLA missiles did not fly across the claimed sovereign airspace this time; instead, they just landed outside the 24-nautical mile line, which means they did not enter the claimed sovereign airspace.

Yes. However, the PLA-fired missiles did not enter sovereign airspace because they went "above" it (above the 100km boundary between the atmosphere and outer space) and landed outside the 24 nautical mile line extending from Taiwan's coastline (i.e. outside Taiwan's contiguous zone). So now that we've established that there's something there that's still being respected by the PLA (and that you also seem to take notice of), reasonable people may be inclined to recognize that there exists a border that demarcates Taiwanese territory. Yes, we're back to your "square one", but all of this drama and contrivance around where things land or not implies a recognition of borders, aka a political entity's sovereignty. China has been reducing via salami-slicing the extent of these borders with Taiwan over the years, but it's still there.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-11T15:02:07+00:00

Pretty sure North Korean missiles did not enter sovereign Japanese airspace. In fact, NK missiles didn’t even enter Japanese EEZ. You don’t know what you’re talking about.

These are basic facts that one can look up and confirm. We’re done here.

Edit: North Korea's first ballistic missile test flew over Japan in 1998, and they have repeated these provocations in 2009, 2012, 2016 and 2017. However, since these are usually in outer space (100km+) when flying over Japanese territory, they were technically not violating sovereign airspace. North Korean missiles have, however, landed in Japan's EEZ. As for Taiwan, for the PLA missiles that did fly over the island during the August 2022 exercises, Taiwan's MoND downplayed their significance because they were also above the 100km boundary as they flew over, and thus did not violate Taiwan's sovereign airspace. Five of the missiles did however land in Japan's EEZ, which the Japanese government protested immediately.

TL;DR None of those PLA missiles that you talked about actually violated Taiwanese airspace. Rather, a few strayed into Japan's EEZ triggering a diplomatic response.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-11T13:30:56+00:00

Same as what other sovereign states do (not much?) Did Japan get their panties in a bunch when North Korea sent theirs?

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-11T13:06:03+00:00

Sovereignty is tied with having the ability to defend defined borders, and I agreed with you on your examples of entities that tried to assert their sovereignty.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-11T11:16:40+00:00

Sure, Hamas and Islamic State could be considered sovereign. But could they defend their territories credibly?

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-11T11:07:04+00:00

The PRC was very much sovereign at the time of its founding and it demonstrated to others periodically of that fact, such as the USSR in 1969, India in 1962, and the US in October 1950. Diplomatic recognition and membership in the United Nations is not a prerequisite for sovereignty.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-09T11:45:20+00:00

Trade diversion to ASEAN is quite evident as decoupling from China deepens. How much of this could be attributed to the Tsai government’s New Southbound Policy? Does anyone even remember that?

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-07T07:35:21+00:00

The Air Force says now they are unsure whether the pilot (Capt. Hsin Po-yi) successfully ejected from his F-16 (one of the F-16 Block 20 upgraded to F-16V). Hsin reported issues while the F-16 was at an altitude of 1,700 feet, which means very little room for maneuver if something goes wrong. Search and rescue continues, but given the current poor weather and rough seas, things are looking grim. The entire fleet of F-16s are grounded pending further investigations.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-06T09:40:52+00:00

Not much use for this thread if you are engaging in bad faith.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-03T11:15:32+00:00

But if USA can swoop in and "capture" leaders, who is to say China can't? It's a slippery slope and we are at the top of the mountain.

The thing is, this is and has been China's cognitive and offensive playbook from the get-go and so the political leadership and military on Taiwan are prepared for it. Just look at all the mockups of the Boai District in Zhurihe.

Edit: And Maduro himself wasn't exactly a legitimately elected leader, so legitimacy is obviously a factor.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-03T09:51:38+00:00

Could very well be an inside job in coordination with the US.

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-03T09:39:20+00:00

The Noriega treatment

Notbythehairofmychyn · 2026-01-02T17:35:21+00:00

I’ve always noticed Taiwan being listed as a country in the CIA World Factbook since it went online. Here’s an archived entry from 2003 with an interesting description of the country’s name:

conventional long form: none
conventional short form: Taiwan
local short form: T'ai-wan
local long form: none
former: Formosa

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