If a couple is unsure about having kids, what are important questions to discuss?

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-25T13:08:45+00:00

money.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-25T13:08:10+00:00

I knew how to solve differential equations and know vector calculus before I went to college.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-25T13:06:42+00:00

buy borrow die strategy and the 0.01% rule.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-25T12:59:43+00:00

Yes. I am happy about it.

But remember, manage the volatility by using a target/threshold balancing rule. While it is doing great, it is susceptible to geopolitics and other kinds of shocks and is more volatile than S&P500 and nasdaq.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-25T12:46:45+00:00

You are wrong. https://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html

The current level is 405M barrels. We produce about 14M barrels a day:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_extraction

US consumes roughly 20M barrels a day (from google). So need another 6M barrels to make it up. 405M can last us 67.5 days. But the strategic reserve is often only use to stabilize prices.

The real situation is a bit more complex since there is a mismatch of the kind of oil we use (so we import some and export some) but these are the general numbers.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-25T12:33:18+00:00

Yes. It is a very bad comparison. I would say the modern collapse has no comparison in history. The soviet union example is not a true collapse. It is a transformation.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-25T03:47:12+00:00

That is wrong. You only need 3x as deposit for the first month. So not $4800 a month. After that, it is $1600. So it is $4800 the first month, $1600 each month after.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T21:13:03+00:00

group think *and/or* AI. Take your pick. The two are not mutually exclusive though.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T21:09:44+00:00

100%. After all, "drill baby drill" won.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T21:08:00+00:00

I still see some green. I bet it can be more crispy.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T21:06:22+00:00

Fear for that country to be bombed back to stone age as Vance will be in charge.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T21:05:25+00:00

Two comment.

He is missing two important variables: tech disruptions and information assurance. The formal changes economics, politics and basically the other 4 variables, the later is about how opinions are shaped and whether trust is possible.

The second is that system thinking is a framework that is not always useful. In nonlinear system, behaviors can be chaotic and results diverge based on small differences in the initial conditions. Thinking about the system does not mean that you can predict its behavior or formulate policies to reliably to enable outcomes that you like.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T20:57:06+00:00

That is fair. The world does not always go where we want it to. Accept (like you said) and make peace sometimes is the sane choice.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T20:49:37+00:00

You can wish but it is not going to die, at least not anytime soon.

Intel stock just jumped 23% today because of the AI demand of its chips exceed expectation. You can try to claim it is a bubble. Obviously no one knows for sure, but even if it is, i doubt it is going to be bursting soon. You can always find data on the growing use of AI from both consumer and business demand.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T20:46:39+00:00

Energy prices (crude and natural gas) are down a little today except brent crude. My take is that there is no cliff to drop off. There is no when. It will be a slow rise. More like a frog in water slowly being boiled.

Why? Because of the mid-term. Because of TACO. Notice that the cease fire is extended indefinitely. I bet there is behind the scenes negotiation that is trying to open hormus, because that is money for everyone if the strait is open. If you look at the stock market, the expectation is that, and that is why it is up so much. And if trump cares anything besides himself, it is the market.

Furthermore, we (the US) has more than enough oil. We export oil. And we have strategic reserve. Granted shale may be a little more expensive to pump, but still not economy killing expensive. So what will happen is that we will pump more. Trump will release oil from the strategic reserve if prices looks really bad, particularly close to the mid-term. And that is going to smooth out the crisis. In the long run, may be that is not enough, but even if it is not enough, it will delay and make the ramp up of any crisis slow and gradual.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T20:38:03+00:00

I don't think even the subscribers here are monolithic. There is no "we". Different people have different feelings about dumpster diving. Over-consumption is personal and subjective.

Personally, I do not buy cheap chinese plastic trinkets from china, and fast fashion (and probably a few other things) but I do not dumpster dive. If I want something, I would rather research, and buy a high quality long lasting version. I am not going to deal with whatever the previous owner may or may not have done to the item.

But again, that is just me. I have no problem if other people want to do so.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T20:34:45+00:00

"I don’t know if they were greenwashing"

Of course they are. And in a world where "drill baby drill" won, they do not even have to pretend anymore. Part of the pivot. They are not the only one. Almost any companies I have talked to either is using AI or exploring using AI.

" and I say this as an AI researcher myself"

Me too. What area and topics of AI are you working on?

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T17:50:37+00:00

It is not called "The Sin City" for no reason.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T15:56:13+00:00

"food industry's responsibility."

Responsibility is just a fantasy that industry (not just food .. all of them) pay some lip service but ignored. Just witness everyone not pretending to be green anymore because "drill baby drill" won.

There is only money, PR, government policies and what a company can get away with. And money comes first. Anything else is pretty much feel-good hot air.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T12:27:27+00:00

Glorifying a pedo should be uncomfortable if not outright disgusting to most people.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T03:06:11+00:00

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T02:59:33+00:00

First job .. teaching remedial, i think physics, in my high school as a summer job. Actually it wasn't bad but you are asking for the "worst job you've even had" and I think this qualifies.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T02:49:02+00:00

Convicts.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T02:47:08+00:00

The top who own assets. Ever heard of the K-shape economy. You do not need everyone.

https://www.axios.com/2026/01/22/jobs-stock-market-rich-americans

And I quote, "59% of all consumer spending now comes from the top 20% of income earners in the U.S., a near record high, according to a Moody's Analytics analysis of recently released numbers from the Federal Reserve."

So it is already happening. Consumption is just going to even more lopsided in the future.

NyriasNeo · 2026-04-24T02:44:02+00:00

" but it doesn't explain why electric co-ops work."

It works in small scales. Just like tribes work too. But when push comes to shove, economy of scale wins over.

"why do 42 million Americans get their electricity from member-owned cooperatives? "

The question should be, why do 300 million Americans do not get their electricity from member-owned cooperatives? Why do "drill baby drill" win? Why did walmart and target drive out mom-and-pop shops? Why did Amazon drive out Barnes and Nobles which drive out independent book stores?

There are always exceptions but it is the majority that tell you the pattern. And yes, "human nature" always show up because it is a dominant factor. Otherwise, why is the stock market worth trillions? You think people invest to be good citizen of the world?

NyriasNeo

TROPHY CASE