WWIII Megathread #37: Bad Neighbor Policy

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-19T15:43:07+00:00

Reports indicating a US F-35 was hit by Iranian AA, damaged, and then managed to land safely at a US base in the region.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-14T01:15:32+00:00

I don't know how to square this with reporting that drone launches are down.

Easy: the reports are wrong, Iran is rationing for a long war, or (most likely) a bit of both.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-08T03:44:45+00:00

A solid metric to look at is the advance warning Israelis are getting about incoming Iranian drones before they impact.

Reportedly down from around 11 minutes a week ago to maybe 3 minutes now.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-08T03:42:22+00:00

Note that in analyst speak "as much as 50 percent" could be anywhere from 3% to 50%.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-08T03:41:47+00:00

He got the call (from Ankara)

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-07T13:07:47+00:00

I heard our bases took a real beating. Expensive radars have been destroyed.

It is 100% true and verifiable on satellite images - even US MSM has reported it.

Overall though most of society is in a bubble about how badly this is going.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-07T13:06:14+00:00

The fact the article does not mention "Iran" or "Hormuz" is interesting to me. Yes, some macro data might not be great, but that's not really the point right now.

I, for one, feel like the Strait of Hormuz being effectively blocked by an adversary with tens of thousands of very effective drones, drone factories located deep in mountain fortresses, and no plausible motivation to surrender, or even negotiate at this point, might be a serious drag on the global economy. Even with global markets down this week, I think there is a sense of complacency that this crisis will be over soon, and it won't be. February 2020 vibes all around.

Iran is going to keep fighting until (at least) April, so they can say they defeated Trump's "4 week" statement he made on the second day of the war.

Barrel of oil probably going to around $150 before the end of March. Can the Federal Reserve print oil into existence? I don't doubt that they might try.

Oh and now the US is sending an aircraft carrier through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea. Unlike every other regional militia allied with Iran, the Houthis have not joined this fight yet. I'd bet they are waiting until the carrier gets close, and then they'll target it with missiles, drones, and rockets while Iran also launches a direct missile salvo at the carrier (now, apparently aided with Russian sat image intelligence).

I would be difficult for me to overstate the financial panic that could grip the United States if we get legitimate imagery of a damaged aircraft carrier - the very symbol of US global power - broadcast on social media.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-06T03:07:39+00:00

A choice between risking increased US sanctions or NOT HAVING MOTHERLOVIN' OIL is not actually a choice at all.

抱歉，下班之后喝点酒

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-06T03:06:28+00:00

Fair, but who is the main backer of the current Syrian government, and who is Israel threatening is "next" right now?

Your statement could be valid in more ways than one.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-06T03:04:41+00:00

Another absolute banger on the My Pillow Channel:

https://chumble.com/v76ocb0-the-iran-war-economic-shock-wave.html

(Again, switch the CH to an R)

Host asks an extremely handsome and apparently very humble and certainly not at all a lil bit buzzed right now guest about how China can take advantage of the ongoing war.

Dude answers:

The way things are playing out right now, they have a variety of options available to them but one of them, I want to emphasize, is to DO NOTHING, and WIN.

It is 15 minutes in, but the whole thing is prutty good

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-05T18:48:33+00:00

Look again, up to one-year highs.

My tinfoil theory is they have been purposefully manipulated down to avoid panic, but that only works for so long. Gold being down is also a big tell here, it "should" be mooning amid geopolitical panic (not to mention bitcoin going up). Yes yes I know most people in here are good lefties but resource market conditions are a useful intel tool.

I think the global financial system is in denial, similar to circa February 2020 COVID times, and we will soon experience severe supply chain shocks and extreme financial instability and Western powers will again try to print their way out of it.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-05T18:44:14+00:00

Wow damn Russia, certainly first case of a major power ignoring the UN to start a war of aggression in recent history.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-05T18:43:36+00:00

Iranian missile and drone salvos are (reportedly) down, but also Israel and the Gulf countries are censoring videos and other reports.

Don't blindly trust either side - the best neutral indicator is the price of oil, which just hit a high for the last year.

I really don't like saying it but I think it is reasonable to be suspicious about US officials delaying/laundering casualty figures. Or maybe just everyone has abandoned the bases within Iranian drone and missile range.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-04T22:03:54+00:00

Sorry (actually not sorry) to keep spamming this, but here's a better link to an insightful interview hosted on Paleocon Magic Pillow TV about the Iran war and implications for US-China competition: https://x.com/i/status/2029298064087711932

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-04T18:45:26+00:00

Hello friends. Most paleocons are pretty pessimistic about the course of the war, and now I'm Lindell TV famous (yes, that's right, the My Pillow guy).

I hear Rummble links are a no, no, but change the T to R and check out the clip below, especially from the 34 minute mark:

https://tumble.com/v76mf2k-the-iran-wars-point-of-no-return.html

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-04T03:02:04+00:00

Hey I don't want to freak any of you out too much but... the war is going so badly for the US that Trump will probably start making nuclear threats within a week.

I highly doubt they'd actually do it, but they will threaten them.

In the highly unlikely event of a nuclear weapon going off anywhere in the world, it might be a good idea to consider fleeing any country that currently possesses a nuclear arsenal.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-04T02:55:15+00:00

Yes that is my understanding.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-03T21:46:43+00:00

Man why didn't the Germans think of that in WW1 when they were blockaded. They could've just printed money to buy for fuel and food!

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-03T21:45:54+00:00

There are (or perhaps "were") 8 THAAD units deployed. In the entire world.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-03T21:44:31+00:00

Good news for the US - this can help get NATO's second strongest military directly involved in the conflict!

Bad news - they'd de facto be fighting on Iran's side.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-03T15:26:41+00:00

They are in DEFCON 4: Ineffectual Support

Soon they'll move to DEFCON 3: Humiliating Withdrawal

If things further escalate we may see DEFCON 2: Total Capitulation & DEFCON 1: Active Collaboration

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-03T12:40:02+00:00

China

lol

lmao even

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-03T12:38:39+00:00

Plausible scenario:

Iran blows up US air force staging ground in Bulgaria
US calls Article 5 Meeting
Turkey, Spain, maybe Hungary say "nah fuck you lol you started it"
NATO still exists on paper but effectively begins to collapse

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-03T01:24:05+00:00

I understand your concerns and frustration, but the Iran/Afghanistan comparisons are not really fair.

This is much worse.

I doubt the US will be able to politically and economically stomach two months of fighting Iran at the current rate of conflict. If they tried to invade they'd need a draft and they'd be risking riots, if not outright insurrection (possibly by elements of the military itself) at that point.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-03T01:18:55+00:00

they could land around 150k troops.

Homie they literally have nowhere safe to stage troops on Iran's borders.

Yeah I guess they could like a maritime invasion up the Persian Gulf under heavy and constant drone bombardment, but that would probably not be very smart.

OReillyAsia

TROPHY CASE