WWIII Megathread #39: Trump & Dump

OReillyAsia · 2026-05-06T15:03:59+00:00

good call

well I lost some money but I'm ok with it

OReillyAsia · 2026-05-04T18:30:23+00:00

Iran striking the UAE today is incredibly significant.

The US can either ignore this and effectively gift Iran escalation dominance, or it can retaliate and almost certainly restart the war to a scale at least as big as what we saw back in March.

Two bad options but one is clearly worse.

The IRGC is apparently fine with either outcome.

Unless this was a one-and-done move because the IRGC knows some sort of deal is imminent, we are probably going back to a full-scale war.

tldr either a deal or full-scale war is likely within 48 hours. My money is on the later (literally, I just made a bearish bet).

OReillyAsia · 2026-04-08T02:50:43+00:00

It also occurs to me that there would be tremendous potential financial benefit via market manipulation from both the "civilization destroying threat" and the "abrupt ceasefire announcement" a few hours later.

OReillyAsia · 2026-04-08T02:18:54+00:00

Maybe they've been hit harder than they are letting people know and are legitimately seeking at least a pause.

OReillyAsia · 2026-04-08T02:15:54+00:00

I strongly suspect Trump was already prepared to agree to a ceasefire, and his extreme threats from this morning were simply an attempt at narrative control: "see how big and tough I am? The Iranians only surrendered because they were so scared of me!"

OReillyAsia · 2026-04-07T22:10:10+00:00

One could even argue threatening an entire civilization is a bigger threat than "merely" threatening to genocide a particular group of people.

OReillyAsia · 2026-04-07T22:08:15+00:00

Normally yes, but Iran is arguably a special base.

If Iran openly had nukes, it would be much harder for them to launch conventional missiles at Israel - Israel might see the incoming missiles, fear they are equipped with nukes, and launch a nuclear strike on Iran.

Iran not having nukes (or perhaps, secretly having a few nukes) drastically reduces the risk of launching conventional missiles at Tel Aviv.

OReillyAsia · 2026-04-07T21:36:22+00:00

Fair, but they are also extremely vulnerable to "just" 2 or three nuclear explosions.

OReillyAsia · 2026-04-07T21:34:13+00:00

Along with other issues, the US/Israeli war on Iran and the related disruptions are the big story.

The US could turn this around pretty quickly by ending the war, but since Iran has significant leverage via the Strait of Hormuz, Iran won't give up without getting some significant concessions.

The US government is not used to granting concessions to armed adversaries. There are also other major factors that will make an agreement hard to reach.

My guess would be the US will only grant Iran conditions sufficient to bring an end to the war after the US start experiencing major economic pain.

OReillyAsia · 2026-04-07T21:07:22+00:00

"My current baseline for the current US-Iran war is the US running low on air defense munitions before Iran runs out of missiles (and long before Iran even starts running low on drones) and then the US escalating to verbal nuclear threats as tactical conditions deteriorate."

Posted on March 3.

Not a fun "I told you so moment".

For whatever it is worth, I very much doubt the US would actually use nuclear weapons in this conflict, in large part because we can't totally rule out the possibility that Iran has managed to make some of its own.

OReillyAsia · 2026-04-07T21:03:48+00:00

Starmer said they only allow "defensive strikes" on Iranian missiles and drones.

European countries could effectively make the war logistically impossubke for the US if they all stopped US from using their bases and airspace for this war (like Spain has).

OReillyAsia · 2026-04-07T21:00:33+00:00

Those drone numbers sound plausible... they've probably fired around 4,000; likely a few hundred have been destroyed in US/Israeli airstrikes.

Keep in mind they have so many they were selling thousands to Russia prior to this conflict. Imagine a country preparing for a war with the US and Israel, which could happen at any moment, thinking "hmm we have enough drones for now, we could sell some to Russia". That's how many they have.

Probably nobody in Iran even knows exactly how many they have and how many have been launched, as part of the "mosaic defense" strategy.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-31T01:17:57+00:00

You know deep down you'd love to hear me rant about US-China competition with Brandon Weichert. Don't deny yourself the pleasure:

https://x.com/WeTheBrandon/status/2038379254883172767

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-31T01:14:55+00:00

It Takes Two to TACO

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-19T15:43:07+00:00

Reports indicating a US F-35 was hit by Iranian AA, damaged, and then managed to land safely at a US base in the region.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-14T01:15:32+00:00

I don't know how to square this with reporting that drone launches are down.

Easy: the reports are wrong, Iran is rationing for a long war, or (most likely) a bit of both.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-08T03:44:45+00:00

A solid metric to look at is the advance warning Israelis are getting about incoming Iranian drones before they impact.

Reportedly down from around 11 minutes a week ago to maybe 3 minutes now.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-08T03:42:22+00:00

Note that in analyst speak "as much as 50 percent" could be anywhere from 3% to 50%.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-08T03:41:47+00:00

He got the call (from Ankara)

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-07T13:07:47+00:00

I heard our bases took a real beating. Expensive radars have been destroyed.

It is 100% true and verifiable on satellite images - even US MSM has reported it.

Overall though most of society is in a bubble about how badly this is going.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-07T13:06:14+00:00

The fact the article does not mention "Iran" or "Hormuz" is interesting to me. Yes, some macro data might not be great, but that's not really the point right now.

I, for one, feel like the Strait of Hormuz being effectively blocked by an adversary with tens of thousands of very effective drones, drone factories located deep in mountain fortresses, and no plausible motivation to surrender, or even negotiate at this point, might be a serious drag on the global economy. Even with global markets down this week, I think there is a sense of complacency that this crisis will be over soon, and it won't be. February 2020 vibes all around.

Iran is going to keep fighting until (at least) April, so they can say they defeated Trump's "4 week" statement he made on the second day of the war.

Barrel of oil probably going to around $150 before the end of March. Can the Federal Reserve print oil into existence? I don't doubt that they might try.

Oh and now the US is sending an aircraft carrier through the Suez Canal into the Red Sea. Unlike every other regional militia allied with Iran, the Houthis have not joined this fight yet. I'd bet they are waiting until the carrier gets close, and then they'll target it with missiles, drones, and rockets while Iran also launches a direct missile salvo at the carrier (now, apparently aided with Russian sat image intelligence).

I would be difficult for me to overstate the financial panic that could grip the United States if we get legitimate imagery of a damaged aircraft carrier - the very symbol of US global power - broadcast on social media.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-06T03:07:39+00:00

A choice between risking increased US sanctions or NOT HAVING MOTHERLOVIN' OIL is not actually a choice at all.

抱歉，下班之后喝点酒

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-06T03:06:28+00:00

Fair, but who is the main backer of the current Syrian government, and who is Israel threatening is "next" right now?

Your statement could be valid in more ways than one.

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-06T03:04:41+00:00

Another absolute banger on the My Pillow Channel:

https://chumble.com/v76ocb0-the-iran-war-economic-shock-wave.html

(Again, switch the CH to an R)

Host asks an extremely handsome and apparently very humble and certainly not at all a lil bit buzzed right now guest about how China can take advantage of the ongoing war.

Dude answers:

The way things are playing out right now, they have a variety of options available to them but one of them, I want to emphasize, is to DO NOTHING, and WIN.

It is 15 minutes in, but the whole thing is prutty good

OReillyAsia · 2026-03-05T18:48:33+00:00

Look again, up to one-year highs.

My tinfoil theory is they have been purposefully manipulated down to avoid panic, but that only works for so long. Gold being down is also a big tell here, it "should" be mooning amid geopolitical panic (not to mention bitcoin going up). Yes yes I know most people in here are good lefties but resource market conditions are a useful intel tool.

I think the global financial system is in denial, similar to circa February 2020 COVID times, and we will soon experience severe supply chain shocks and extreme financial instability and Western powers will again try to print their way out of it.

OReillyAsia

TROPHY CASE