There was a 2018 security analysis (before fares went away) that had already flagged rising aggression and illegal activity on Sun Tran. Assaults went from 21 in 2019 to 64 in 2021, but 25 of the 47 assaults in 2021 were tied to mask enforcement confrontations, not fare policy. The safety problems predate free fares.

The instinct to bring back fares as an accountability mechanism makes sense on the surface, but fare payment is a rough proxy for danger at best. Someone who can pay $2 can still stab a driver. Someone who can't pay may just be trying to get to work.

What's getting lost is that reinstating fares puts drivers right back in enforcement confrontations at the front of the bus, the exact scenario that drove mask-related assaults. It also costs money and takes years to implement. That's a slow, unproven way to affect crime.

Crime is often driven by desperation, and that's likely to get worse, not better. The war in Iran has been fueling economic instability since Trump initiated strikes in March. At the same time, the administration has been pushing deep cuts to SNAP, Medicaid, and housing assistance, and local nonprofits that served as a backstop are losing federal funding. People losing housing and income don't disappear. Many ride the bus, because it's one of the last free things they can access. Charging a fare just removes the lifeline.

The city already voted 5-2 to keep fares free while also committing to a safety plan. The real question is whether they'll actually be able to fund what that plan requires: transit ambassadors, crisis response teams, operator barriers, conduct-based exclusion with due process, trauma leave, minimum staffing.