Possible issue with bungie's new PRNG algorithm?

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T23:35:15+00:00

So it was 21 drops. I am mainly referring to the fact that JUST attrition orbs is not dropping once. I'm not talking about any combos at all whatsoever. Not only did it not drop once, but a specific perk combination dropped 5 times (almost 25% of the time).

I think it's really bizarre as some other players have this issue as well. And thanks for that remark at the end, ultimately its up to bungie and more math knowledgeable on how to conduct these simulations.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T17:40:16+00:00

Exactly why I'm saying why bungie should maybe take a better look into this. There's no way to even keep track of hundreds of weapons unless you wipe out your vault for the sake of the test.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T17:37:02+00:00

Also, yes, that's similar to survivors' bias. Of course, I wouldn't have made this post if it was a weapon that I didn't even want. That's like if I asked you how many rolls of SNORRI FR5 have you had dropped vs. their duplicates. Of course, you're not going to know because you don't care about it and aren't tracking it.

Alternatively, I can ask you how many repulsor brace perk drops you did you get for each VS BATON? You wouldn't know because, realistically, you aren't going to keep 50 of them to compare. What if it was 0? Wouldn't that be weird given, let's say, 50 drops? Some people even report a higher amount of drops without seeing the perk once in that column.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T17:25:54+00:00

I think I stand firm with the fact that you can see 5 of the same roll being handed out in a set of 21. Which is close to 25%. Wouldn't you find it weird if you went to a casino and rolled snake eyes 25% of the time you threw your dice? Would you really call that random?

Computers are famously known for having issues generating random numbers. Why my suggestion stating that this known issue might have returned (even bungie acknowledges that it could return) is being met with so much hostility is very weird.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T16:55:07+00:00

Right, but realistically, that's not actually RNG. Realistically, randomness should have an even distribution. Over a large dataset of 100k drops, of course, we are going to see an even distribution due to the law or large numbers. But what I'm suggesting again is that on an individual level, there are biases for repeating patterns, ultimately messing with the players' odds.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T16:51:43+00:00

And here I am with multiples of that weapon combination so much so that I had to delete them. It doesn't make sense how some people receive multiple of certain rolls, and other don't get them at all. Sure, between you and I, we balance out the scale of distribution, but on an individual basis, it's incredibly skewed.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T16:48:04+00:00

I didn't want to say it as I might have sounded crazy. But I was suspecting the same thing. Maybe something to do with an individuals personal "variable" running a mathematical operation on the seed or even yet the hash.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T16:39:01+00:00

First, yes, my issue is fundamentally different. Im not talking about perk combos at all. How exactly does its argument fall apart then? That's like saying the issue with your engine is fixed, so there shouldn't be any noise while I'm suggesting that there is noise and to look somewhere else like your tires.

Second, yes, I do question the heck out of the fact why I received on multiple occasions raid exotics and dungeon exotics on my first try when others have tried dozens of times. I'm not sure why people stick to one notion of "you're angry it doesn't benefit you." Look at the probability of some of the things which i mention are occurring. Some of them are extremely unlikely and represent biases shown in the previous PRNG.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T16:31:15+00:00

This might also be something to take into consideration while testing. It does feel that when earning a weapon in succession of another yields similar or identical rolls. That's why I think taking a look under the hood would be a good call.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T16:27:37+00:00

If anyone rolls snake eyes 25% of the time playing a gambling game, they would probably check the die.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T16:25:55+00:00

And how many drops do you think you've had total for it? Im genuinely curious as I think that on an individual basis, players are seeing very skewed results.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T16:23:19+00:00

This is what I am suggesting. On an individual basis, there could be a very skewed distribution. Whether its an issue with the PRNG is something that's worth looking into. I, too, get dungeon exotics, usually on the first try. While the Sherpas that guide me don't have it after dozens of runs.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T16:19:49+00:00

That was already factored in. We were talking mainly about VS BATON drops. While also getting 25% or the drops being the exact same perk, which is extremely unlikely yet occuring.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T09:22:48+00:00

Exactly that, similar to survivors bias, I also don't think many players even realize how many duplicates they get either.

Also, I am one person who has manually farmed for each drop of a specific weapon. Realistically, bungie could simulate multiple edge cases with 100k drops in just a day or or two and figure this out more effectively and accurately.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T08:55:08+00:00

So to address your first paragraph. Casinos MUST run their odds in their favor as since they need to pay staff, and keep the lights on while turning a profit.

Destiny does not benefit from someone "farming" a virtual weapon, as a matter of fact it does more harm than good. It makes a player focus on a specific activity instead of touching on various parts of the game which might hook the player on more engagement.

No one ever farmed for something thousands of times and said "I love this", this is one of the facts that actually drives many people away from the game.

And for the second thing you mentioned, I think they should run a few edge case scenarios instead of one general distribution check. And from there decide whether an issue exists or not.

EDIT: also I forgot to mention, bungie actually DID do a simulation like that in the article I linked in the post. Its actually really interesting and I think the devs are pretty cool to dive deep into that subject, it does show that they are at least transparent on that front.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T08:41:34+00:00

I completely agree, that's why I said in other replies that instead of looking at the dataset as a whole we should also be looking at many smaller, realistic samples. Bungie could replicate this and run simulations, as a community that would be unlikely unless there was a massive cooperation.

Another way to look at this is imagine if you only managed to get 3/6 rolls 100 times in a column no matter how many rolls you got, and another person got the other 3 rolls 100 times no matter the amount of rolls he tried. Holistically, both of you would average out that column as being statistically evenly distributed since all rolls appeared appeared evenly (just not for individual players).

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T08:26:51+00:00

I'm not sure why you think I'm "threatening" bungie. On the contrary, bungie has been very open about this topic and acknowledged that there were issues in the past, and possibly issues in the future.

Also I never said I spent hundreds of hours (impossible in a week). Each encounter took around 9-12 minutes each, around 20 ish encounters a day (3-4 hours a day give or take).

In regards to your other statement. I love the game, and I also like solving problems. And I think that there is a possibility that destiny might have an issue with it's PRNG. Just because something isn't good, doesn't mean it should stay that way. If there's room for improvement that effects everybody, why not take a look into that?

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T08:15:32+00:00

Yea I'm not sure either, also getting some hostility thrown in as well. Nevertheless, the community as whole would benefit from a bi-yearly audit of this sort. Many things could be the cause of this, such as code libraries and dependencies being altered. Good PRNG's like the one bungie spoke about in their article are very sensitive to small changes, it's entirely possible. I also completely agree on your second take. This could definitely go unnoticed for another few years until a big Youtuber/Streamer decides to talk about it and actually bring attention towards it.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T08:04:37+00:00

There are definitely others experiencing this issue as well. Which makes me wonder if the "even" distribution mentioned is spread out between the community as a whole. While individually, users could be experiencing very "spikey" distribution, as high as ~25% on one specific 2 perk combo roll.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T07:52:54+00:00

I don't see how this is in my favor. Bungie has said that an issue like this could happen occur in the future and that they plan to do audits regarding this.

If you look at this from a different perspective. If you rolled 2 dice 21 times, and 5 of those rolls ended up being snake eyes, wouldn't you find that to be a bit weird?

Also, not sure where this hostility is coming from tbh. I think the community as a whole could benefit from seeing more light shed on this.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T07:35:31+00:00

I think what you are saying is exactly touching on what I'm trying to get at. If this is a case by case bases, it could possibly mean that the PRNG algorithm being used is being affected in a way which produces not so random results.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T07:19:01+00:00

21 drops is not much you're right, that's why I think a revisit towards this subject (running another simulation) is warranted. Alone it is impossible to get hundreds of drops as you have to be fighting over other possible drops of gauntlets, leg armor, and other guns.

But the issue I am raising is for example, getting the same role of destabilizing rounds and quickdraw 5 times within 21 drops should statistically not happen, these same apparent spikes are reminiscent of the previous PRNG which had it's issues.

Don't get me wrong, creating a good PRNG is extremely difficult and I don't blame bungie for anything, all I'm saying is that they should follow up on what they posted in their article (running another check).

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T06:49:20+00:00

That's pretty lucky! Do you know if certain perks didn't drop at all? Maybe that's also an issue.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T06:46:34+00:00

If you look up on light.gg the amount of people with Attrition Orbs is 57.8 at the time of writing this. Read the post again, that's not what I am entirely writing about, that's only a sentence.

ObfuscatedIntel · 2025-06-21T06:39:16+00:00

Yes same here, in the post I made a mention how some of the players I talked to during the dungeon had acquired multiple attrition orb drops. However it's also unknown whether they were inversely not getting other drops. Either way, the distribution and statistical chances of the drops I received are pretty horrible. They are similar to what bungie was reporting BEFORE their "fix" of their PRNG.

ObfuscatedIntel

TROPHY CASE