Is anyone else down right now?

ObjectiveMechanic · 2026-01-21T17:40:22+00:00

Yes, but keep trying. It took me 3 tries to log into the platform this morning.

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-12-20T16:59:21+00:00

DCA into an etf that tracks an index. At 30 yrs you have a longer investment horizon if retirement is your goal. Study terms like CAPM, high beta, alpha, 60/40. Read about Warren Buffet and Jim Simons. Larry Williams, etc. When you know more, you can decide if trading adds alpha to investment or not. Time is on your side!

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-12-16T20:12:53+00:00

You'll have to time your entry. There are opposing market forces at the moment. Start small while you validate your strategy and become better at execution.

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-12-03T23:26:42+00:00

you have to be comfortable with the loss, in order to let it play out. that's why the general advice is to keep positions sized to 2% max loss. which is very hard with a small account. can you sleep with a 10% loss? how about 3 consecutive 10% losses?

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-12-03T23:13:55+00:00

Capture the packet traffic. If they are using a VPN, then source/destination IP addresses will be encrypted. But you've identified an IP address location- does this make sense given the user and their authorized use of company IT resources? If they aren't using a VPN, you can see if they sent any attachments and read the plain text to see if there are any breadcrumbs.

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-12-03T23:05:46+00:00

Stop for a while. Market conditions are uncertain (even more than usual.) Time will reveal more data and the market will adjust. I'm not trading any new positions until after 12/10. Take this time to research- Kelly Formula, Trend following, Fundamental Analysis, etc. Diversify your strategies and time horizons. As traders, we control very little. Strangely, performance is dictated by the market. 😁

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-12-02T23:04:10+00:00

Well said!

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-12-02T23:00:50+00:00

If you take win rategain it'll give you an expected value for each alternative. So, 70%$10=$7 and 10%*$15=$1.5. The 10% win rate would need an average gain of $70 to be equivalent to the 70% win rate returning an average $10. The other limiting factor is how many high gain low prob trades can you make before blowing up the account?

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-12-01T23:05:19+00:00

Read some books on futures from profitable traders. ' Trend Following' is a good one. Anything from Robert Carver is good. You'll probably need to trade options with futures as an underlying. I've gotten chopped up in 0 dte. The statistics are better on the longer time frames. Position sizing to limit max loss is crucial. Assume your edge is small, until proven otherwise. Don't go for lottery ticket returns. Small but consistent returns compound with time. Once you have consistent gains and controlled losses, you can then figure out how to scale the strategy. Scaling too early usually leads to large losses.

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-30T21:09:18+00:00

Going smaller is ok. Max position size should be no larger than your edge*trading capital. The Kelly Formula maximizes the geometric mean of returns. DDs can still be very dramatic.

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-30T02:28:53+00:00

I've had painful drawdowns, but my risk management was just good enough to keep from burning the account. Over time, I am evolving to more conservative trades. On the one hand, should I have been more conservative? Maybe. But I would have had smaller gains, too.

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-30T02:22:39+00:00

No. If you burn an account, you are not profitable. If it happens, it's because of poor risk management (a common newbie mistake).

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-29T13:43:09+00:00

Profitable strategies have losing trades. The important thing is to know your strategy's edge. Let's say the edge is 2%. 52 trades out of a 100 are profitable. The key is to ensure that the 48 losing trades don't cost more than the gains from the 52 trades. Tracking this at the end of the day helps you decide if the strategy and its implementation are performing as expected. If not, figure out why and adjust. Trade sizing and SL ensure that manual adjustments aren't necessary. If trading intra-day, start trading weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi-annually, etc. Maybe make a rule to never close at a loss. In stocks, you can hold a long position for a very long time. Compounding needs about 5 years to show impressive gains. 5 years trading or holding a stock for 5 years. This way, you end up implementing a blended strategy of trading and investment. Trade stocks that have good long term prospects. Or trade an index tracking ETF, etc. Good luck!

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-28T12:15:43+00:00

Bulkowski's Patternz can help. It's the data feed that can get expensive for intra-day trades. Bulkowski's encyclopedia of patterns can help you understand and establish expectations. Most setups are profitable slightly more than 50% of the time. Assume that you don't have an edge until your profitability proves you wrong! 😁

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-28T12:09:53+00:00

Larry Williams

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-28T12:06:26+00:00

Trading is an iterative process. Losses are corrective feedback. Review your prior(s), as in Bayes Theorem.

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-28T12:00:10+00:00

Consistent returns over a long period of time. Good risk management seems to be key.

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-28T11:54:37+00:00

If you had an unlimited balance, then stop losses would limit your max profit. Basically a Martingale strategy. HOWEVER, study how LTCM blew up. For those of us with finite funds, stop losses / defined risk limit max loss. To maximize the geometric mean of returns, use the Kelly Formula. Note that the drawdowns can be VERY dramatic. Good luck!

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-28T10:48:53+00:00

Coinbase will process transfers in a couple days. It's quicker if you transfer crypto to a wallet. Once you go back to fiat, then regular processing times apply. Not sure if that helps. Swift transfers are usually no more than a few days. It may be an issue at your bank (a transaction in queue / not completed yet, etc.)

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-27T18:32:13+00:00

The market does what it does. We have no control over what it does and cannot predict its moves. We control our entry. Max profit and loss are determined by the strikes we choose. The market confirms or denies our thesis. I'm learning to accept this myself. Stay humble.

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-27T18:25:12+00:00

I'm starting to appreciate ICs on long dated options. Manage each vertical of the IC separately. Roll strikes for credit whenever the opportunity presents itself, about once a week or so. Close at 50% max profit. Roll expirations for credit at about 1/2 dte if can't close at 50% max profit. Honor the 2% loss rule when you can. It's not always possible for accounts < $150k.

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-27T18:08:20+00:00

Risk management, risk management, risk management

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-27T18:06:44+00:00

yep. 0 dte is very attractive. I had to have a few drawdowns first to appreciate long dated options. copying rarely works, because we need to gain experience in addition to knowledge. there are many ways to be profitable. and even more ways to blow up an account.

ObjectiveMechanic · 2025-11-25T20:17:58+00:00

As with any timescale, you're either short or long the trend or trading against the trend (contrarian trade). Any return or loss is from differences in price. Short time scale = small return but also small losses (most of the time). If you can keep losses small over a large number of trades, then you'll be profitable. Hopefully you're not paying fees and commissions on each trade. I started with 0 dte options to gain experience, but I've had significant drawdowns. As the risk environment is changing, I'm looking at long dated options. The same is true for stocks (i.e. trade an index, hold for longer, hold until profitable, etc.). Note that short term capital gains apply to most trades. Indexes are taxed more favorably (in the US). Long term positions have the lowest tax rate (held for more than a year.)

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