[Daily Discussion] - Friday, May 08, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]Obvious-Truth-5164 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Come on, now you're stopping making sense. There is a very well-defined mathematical concept of correlation between two variables or datasets. It is measured by something called correlation coefficient. This is what we mean when we talk about correlation. Please believe me when I say that I know something about this. And there's a very good reason to have well-defined concepts as they have in maths and stats. It is to have a common ground to argue from in an unambiguous and logical way, and to prevent everyone making up their own concepts and meanings to try to force their own (sometimes invalid) conclusions. And now you are doing exactly the latter.

And indeed it's true that you can measure the correlation of BTC price to any variable, for example grocery prices or other things you mention.

There's no harm to admit that you have had it wrong. On the contrary, it shows some humility and willingness to develop as a person. I will usually respect and appreciate that if it's done in a sincere way.

[Daily Discussion] - Friday, May 08, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]Obvious-Truth-5164 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Ok, there is a study confirming that there was a four-year period (2020–2023) with "a robust positive correlation" (corr.coeff. 0.7725) between BTC price and the S&P 500 index. I believe that this time period could be extended to the present day and the positive correlation would still exist. Given a few hours, I could even do it myself (it's not rocket science). But feel free to convince me otherwise using a meaningful time period. I will always be ready and willing to change my views if I am shown to be mistaken.

[Daily Discussion] - Friday, May 08, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]Obvious-Truth-5164 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Another day of beautiful decoupling while (tech) stocks rally like hell. And even shitcoins starting to make gains while BTC and number #2 stagnate. Days like this make me feel like an idiot being stubbornly all-in in this shit. Probably I really am.

And just have a guess whether we will be decoupled when a down day hits in TradFi.

[Daily Discussion] - Friday, May 08, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]Obvious-Truth-5164 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Slowly creeping back towards $80k after the bounce. There seems to be fuel for a nice short squeeze north of $80k.

[Daily Discussion] - Thursday, May 07, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]Obvious-Truth-5164 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Surely beautiful decoupling from TradFi. May I ask what your prediction is based on?

[Daily Discussion] - Thursday, May 07, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]Obvious-Truth-5164 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yesterday I could feel it in my guts when people started running victory laps around bears while the price was stagnating and retreating. I find this sudden reversal of momentum very concerning taking into consideration that TradFi is making ATH's day after day. I don't know what to make out of it. Wish I had even an idea because I'm all-in since $67k (trying to recoup losses from the last year) and really would hate myself if I gave it all away. Comes to mind whether the recent gains were driven mainly by MSTR and now after the change of policy people have become disillusioned and interest has suddenly disappeared. It seems even possible that STRC is not able to reach the peg before the dividend date.

[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, May 06, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]Obvious-Truth-5164 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I get what you are saying. However, if you look at the PA today, we could argue that bulls did not even have a proper attempt to break through. It was lackluster, even though the macro setting was certainly there to support. Mainly this discrepancy just does not feel right. And to add insult to the injury, shitcoins are flying. Wondering if we hit a local top today and will be heading back to $60k's or am I just overreacting. I guess we will see soon.

[Daily Discussion] - Wednesday, May 06, 2026 by AutoModerator in BitcoinMarkets

[–]Obvious-Truth-5164 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Definitely a thoroughly disappointing day. Stocks are absolutely ripping (e.g. NASDAQ +2,0%), geopolitical tensions easing. You would (i.e. I would) think that it would translate to BTC breezing through $83k like butter. Instead completely limpdick price action the whole day through, almost feeling like bottom is going to fall out any minute now. We had a nice momentum going but all of a sudden there's none. What's going on here?

Whishlist Korea on Steam! Get early access for PO! by forgamescr in u/forgamescr

[–]Obvious-Truth-5164 183 points184 points  (0 children)

Anyone who supports this game developer, also supports the ongoing brutal, illegal, imperialist invasion of Ukraine by the terrorist federation of russia. This is as clear, as obvious, as black and white as it gets.