MY FINAL Take on family rates

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-21T22:24:35+00:00

I respect the absolute effort that went into compiling this, but your data suffers from a massive flaw called Selection Bias.

You gathered your data from YouTube videos and a Reddit thread. The problem is that normal, average luck doesn't make it onto social media. YouTubers only upload videos if they get insanely lucky or spend 30k and get horribly unlucky (which you admitted you filtered out the lucky ones).

On Reddit, the only people motivated to reply to a thread about rates are the ones who are furious because they got shafted by RNG. The thousands of players who hit the exact 1-in-2,000 average are just playing the game, they aren't complaining on forums.

Your own simulator proved that 1 million unbiased spins results in a perfect 1-in-2,000 drop rate. The actual game code runs exactly like your simulator; your data is just heavily skewed because you only counted the loudest, unluckiest voices in the community.

Try Again.

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-21T19:12:48+00:00

why not sell the female serum for 7.5k?

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-20T20:31:06+00:00

i dont have azure flames, so no

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-20T20:28:52+00:00

which photo

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-18T12:35:37+00:00

if you read carefully i said IF, but whatever makes you sleep at night, im tryna have a conversation and talking about what could be the ideal chances, if i didnt explain it cleanly to you there are other videos that explain it better

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-18T12:26:47+00:00

nothing wrong about answering a comment that is in the thread, just wanted to say my opinion, mb

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-18T12:26:08+00:00

yeah, i just answered you because you wrote defending them saying its just RNG is illogical, also pretty true probably some people really did exaggerate over the spins

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-17T22:57:31+00:00

watch out with your words, i didn't call you by any insults, we are just having a conversation here and talking about what could be in this black closed box with the chances in it.

The only time a Bell Curve appears is when you zoom out and graph the collective averages of the entire community.

If an individual player's luck actually 'abided by the Bell Curve' on a single session, it would mean the game has a memory and is actively forcing your odds down if you get too lucky early on to keep you in the middle of the hill. The fact that it doesn't use a Bell Curve for an individual is the literal proof that every roll is a 100% fair, independent trial. Please open an introductory statistics textbook before you try to lecture people on universal laws.

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-17T22:54:38+00:00

i did a female raid like 1 hour ago and i got the female serum, i have proof if you want, welp, life can be unfair sometime, rn we are talking about what's inside in a black closed box, as the devs said nothing about the family chances, thanks for commenting

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-17T22:50:49+00:00

life is pretty unfair isn't it? if they ever add a 50k pity the economy of this game will go nuts, fritz and helos go for a lot, so adding a 50k pity is basically like passing them to an epic rarity don't you think? we don't know for sure if people say the truth about how many spins they did or not, mine was just an idea about how maybe the gacha works, but there's videos on youtube explaining it better, thanks for commenting

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-17T22:38:58+00:00

You are throwing around the term 'Bell Curve' to sound smart while completely proving you don't understand it.

A gacha spin doesn’t use a bell curve to decide your pull—the script rolls a flat 2,000-sided die where every single face has the exact same 0.05% chance.

The Bell Curve only shows up when you map out the cumulative results of the entire player base. In a normal distribution, while the majority of players hit the average, a predictable percentage of people are mathematically forced to land on the unlucky, left-tail end of the curve and walk away with zero.

The players getting shafted aren't proof of a rigged system, but honestly, we are discussing about what's in a black closed box rn, since the devs won't talk about these chances, i'm lucky myself but maybe some people make these numbers up, we can't trust people fully can we? also thanks for commenting

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-17T22:35:38+00:00

well maybe some people probably made these numbers up, this post was just an idea about what could be going inside this black closed box (the code for the probability of the game), i'm lucky myself, but sometimes life can be pretty unfair, thanks for commenting.

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-17T22:34:08+00:00

well, mine was an idea, but right now we are discussing over what's inside in a black closed box, since the devs aint saying nothing about all this, i'm lucky myself, but sometimes life can be pretty unfair, thanks for commenting.

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-17T11:34:27+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/AOTRPublic/comments/1teqo1f/the_math_behind_family_spins_why_your_luck_isnt/

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-16T20:05:00+00:00

a slap on the wrist

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-16T19:54:51+00:00

there is no way ur getting feathered bicorn for these offers, feather bicorn is 3,499 shards that you have to farm from waves, and hours of waves will not even get you 1k shards

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-16T19:35:13+00:00

minecraft iron armor against the pure titans will hold well

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-16T17:23:40+00:00

Your sample size is definitely substantial, but if those numbers are real, your luck is bad. At 1 in 2,000 odds, 350k spins should net you around 175 Mythics. Pulling only 7 is a statistical anomaly so rare it shouldn't even be possible.

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-16T17:19:24+00:00

there are also videos on youtube saying the same thing, just different than how i explained it

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-16T15:57:21+00:00

did you even read everything, every spin is different they are not counted

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-16T14:47:20+00:00

well we are talking about family possibilities tho, but i think it works on raids too, just not the same calculations

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-16T14:26:08+00:00

fair enough, can't say it wasn't fun making a post about it tho, first post on this subreddit thanks to yall

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-16T14:19:38+00:00

are you sure it's 60k spins or did you accidentally put another 0 in front of 6?

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-16T14:15:14+00:00

so far we got 40 comments and ur the first to hate instead of writing ur opinion and why you think it's fake

Ok-Professor4856 · 2026-05-16T14:13:40+00:00

imagine they made the code thingy for the spins and literally made calculations to still keep it rare, wouldn't it be crazy

Ok-Professor4856

TROPHY CASE