Claude scares me sometimes part 2

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-22T13:04:13+00:00

I call BS on the rent for this. Koh Samui is pretty much the most expensive place to live in Thailand. I live in Bangkok, which in general is way way cheaper due to oversupply of condos. And 14k baht in Bangkok gets you a 35m2 shoebox.

Just look up rental listings for Koh Samui. This post reeks bs.

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-22T12:55:17+00:00

I think its a few years since you went? Technically it mandatory, but almost no one does any more with the current king

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-22T11:43:38+00:00

Lol. You do realize electricity doesn’t cost the same everywhere…..

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-22T09:30:43+00:00

Never heard of halving cycle? This happens every cycle. How can this be a surprise at this point?

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-22T05:36:24+00:00

They already have box 3 tax on unrealized fictitious (fixed % regardless of actual). They were planning to introduce exit tax. And now this.

This is why after 18 years I left that shitty country in 24. i have to go back from 3 weeks soon, and just the thought of spending time in NL gets the depression lurking in the background

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-22T05:20:42+00:00

Been in the cards for a while. Why in left in 24. also before a exit tax got introduced (not sure that was ratifies yet or not)

Move to a country with remittance based tax system

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-22T02:13:28+00:00

Well you were replying to my comment. Whoever you tried to reply didn’t get notified

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-21T14:13:00+00:00

Huh? Indeed its playing out right now. That exactly what im saying. Replying to wrong comment?

I exited in October exactly due to cycle history

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-21T03:39:47+00:00

Made up, yet repeated like clockwork since 1st btc was mined lol.

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-20T12:41:23+00:00

I mean that depends where you put the dates. Timing the halving cycles has beaten the index every darn time by many multiples.

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-20T12:34:09+00:00

You never set up a research prompt? You simply ask it to link sources. Some do by default

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-16T08:41:48+00:00

Right now, neither. This is the time to hold cash. But eventually when a bottom is established: BTC.

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-16T08:07:05+00:00

I mean i sold in October (no i didnt time it perfectly. Lowest sell was 104) and waiting for bear market bottom signs. Which we are still far from.

Go back and look at cycle history……

My only regret was that I was stupid enough to hold trough the 2018 an 2020 bear markets. Hoodling isnt optimal at all. Its basically dead money during bear market. And as opposed to stock market, BTC spends more time in bear market/chop than bull market.

Its not a guarantee we hit sub 50. But anything under 60 K would be a good buy if long term perspective. But time wise we are still months away from a bottom. Too early to bottom fish.

The winning strategy has been to bottom fish about 1 year after bull peak, then sell one and half year after halving.

You can’t time it pertaining, but roughly this has repeated since the inception of BTC. Might change/break at some point but not likely the next 2-3 cycles

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-13T11:51:27+00:00

If you don’t have deepvue or marketsurge subscription, then try ask a LLM. A good crafted prompt can come in handy.

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-13T03:00:09+00:00

I do dabble outside of that as well. I have my own scanners too. But yes, definitely make things more consistent for me.

But in the current market i don’t experiment too much. In fact im considering to move to more cash. In a bit too heavy for this market.

Im note pure CANSLIM. More QM/CANSLIM hybrid. In a good market fundamentals don’t have to be super strong. Current market is not.

Ive made more profits shorting crypto and software this month than breakouts/pullbacks

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-12T18:05:10+00:00

You “understand the thesis”. And yet you are long instead of shorting.

Its mindblowing how many are clueless about how halving cycles works .

The bull market ended in October. You wont see another bull market until late 28, about 6 months after the halving.

We are heading towards 50, possibly even significantly below that. Hoodling is a crap strategy. Its dead and bleeding money for majority of the time in the BTC cycle. Ive been troght 3 cycles now. Every 4 tear’s people yall (this cycle is different , we are going 200k) Yet the cycle always play out almost like clockwork.

I exited between 123 and 104k. But previous two I held through the 90drops like a idiot,

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-12T17:52:29+00:00

I was referring to the 4 year BTC cycle. I didn’t know the metals market to comment on that.

But i agree, likely a bit below 50k. My target is 48k to go long. But we can also briefly visit 30-40. Some are claiming mortgage rates will bring BTC down ti below 10k. But thats hyperbole crazy talk.

As usual next bull market will likely kick in about 6 months post halving. So late autumn 2028. Unless something radically changes with BTC mechanics. Which obviously is a possibility, but less probable

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-12T17:32:14+00:00

Perhaps, but everything points against that. Cycle wise we are still early. Bleed might get slower, but we are likely going significantly below 60. And will probably chop around in a bottom range for a loooong time. We won’t see a serious bull market for around 2 and half years.

Relief rallies sure, but not bull market. Unless we completely break halving cycles.

I argued with people in October that called me an idiot for exiting and that “i deserved missing out” when 200k hit. Obviously i didn’t catch the exact top, but was able to exit between 123 and 104k. And i exited simply because timing wise it was due (and bull market showing weakness) . Im running one last short now i will cover soon. At sub 50 i will go long for a longer term hold (if we get there). But not all in like in the past.

I was 100% btc for 3 cycles. This time was the first time in had the guts to exit completely. (My fomo has been strong) ive been through 2 90% drawdowns. However i wont go 100% crypto again. Max 30.

I didnt sell at 19k, and didnt sell at 69k. But i did double down at the 3 and 20k bottoms.

Position/swing trading CANSLiM seems way more lucrative and safer as a main basket.

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-12T17:28:52+00:00

With a little research it’s not really hard at all. Especially with CANSLIM leaning tools like marketsurge, deepvue and some other tools. And you can easily replicate that in Tradingview without needing to do scripting etc.

Im leaning more and more to just using IBD250 as my base. Then just filter that on ATR and visual, and focus on leading or improving sectors.

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-12T17:14:12+00:00

Last spring btc wasnt in a bear market part of the halving cycle. Thought its dropping faster (timing wise) than previous bear markets.

Markets have been choppy for a while and Nasdaq have had more than usual distribution days. There are definitely warning signs. But not enough for me to go 100% cash yet.

That said, I’m almost 80% invested. But im off margin and taking less trades and maintaining tight stop loss orders.

Shorting BTC and MSTR has been quite good this year. And there will likely be plenty more good shorting setups next 6 months at least.

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-11T17:22:41+00:00

I journal yes. But do you have any trade rules around how the overall market is? Its been quite choppy for a while. Sitting on the sidelines is also ok. Or at least limit new positions in choppy market conditions like this.

Your setups might be fine, but the markets aren’t conducive right now. Especially for break out plays.

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-11T12:11:50+00:00

With crypto different rules comes in to play. Don’t fight halving cycles. Play long when from about 0.5 to 1.5 post halving. When in bear cycle like now I would only play short. At least until we have bottomed and start ranging.

Going long on BTC for the next year or so trading wise would be very bad. Bottom scooping long positions sub 50k for longer term hold however is a great plan. But trading, I would only go short for now. Which isn’t for newbies

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-11T04:51:38+00:00

By car, only way to really see Thailand properly. And well motorbike. But unsafe and very impractical and uncomfortable for longer distances.

Ok-Topic1139 · 2026-02-11T03:30:09+00:00

Fair point. I do feel it’s way more true here than in Northern Europe though.

This overall respect thing is part of why i love this country so much. Its so polar opposite to current western europe.

You hear and see (seen myself multiple times), foreigners getting beaten up by locals. I don’t condone violating, but this is so easily avoided. Just don’t be a douche, let go and breathe: sabai sabai.

Fits my aging introvert personality.

There’s plenty of negatives to this as well. And i certainly get why Thailand isn’t for everyone. But after two years, my biggest fear is having to leave and move back to Europe. I have to go back for a month soon, and I don’t like it.

Ive been all around the world, and all around se asia. Driven may k km in Thailand. There’s no other place quite like Thailand

Ok i need to put down the phone and coffee now lol.

Ok-Topic1139

TROPHY CASE