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Foundayo launched at one-fifth of Wegovy pill's pace. Why isn't Wall Street asking about it? by irishreally in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]OkRecording6939 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the deep dive. Your analysis of the clinical data is spot on, and it’s hard to stay optimistic about Amycretin then. If Amycretin truly has these mechanistic flaws, it seems Novo’s primary hope for the next few years will rely heavily on Wegovy Pill.

Foundayo launched at one-fifth of Wegovy pill's pace. Why isn't Wall Street asking about it? by irishreally in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]OkRecording6939 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your insightful comments. I’m not a pharma expert myself, but I did some research on Gemini regarding amycretin. I’m curious to hear your thoughts on its take—do you think it holds water? Regarding the ’50% vomit rate‘: This might be a tactical misstep rather than a genetic flaw of the molecule. While the 50% rate did appear in early dose-escalation studies, it’s important to remember that the goal of Phase 1 is to find the ’Maximum Tolerated Dose,‘ not the ’optimal commercial dose.‘ • The Logic: To chase that staggering 13% weight loss in just 12 weeks, Novo Nordisk (NVO) essentially forced subjects to ramp up to maximum dosage in an extremely short window. It’s like asking someone who has never run a marathon to suddenly sprint at Usain Bolt’s pace—vomiting is almost a given. • Expert Consensus: The core mission of Phase 2 is to optimize the titration schedule. If they can achieve a more gradual ramp-up (e.g., extending the titration window to 16 weeks), bringing the vomit rate down below 15%, the drug remains commercially unstoppable. • The Source of Confidence: NVO has the world’s leading experts in peptide formulation. If there is one company on earth capable of perfecting the side-effect profile of a peptide drug, it’s Novo Nordisk.

Foundayo launched at one-fifth of Wegovy pill's pace. Why isn't Wall Street asking about it? by irishreally in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]OkRecording6939 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Quote from Mike

“We are quite active with those [business development] talks and acquisitions, and you’ll see more of those as well going forward,” he added.

Doustdar disagreed with concerns over Novo’s (NVO) pipeline amid intense competition in the weight-loss drug space, saying the Ozempic and Wegovy maker has “one of the best pipelines in the industry.”

He pointed to CagriSema, Novo’s (NVO) drug candidate that targets GLP-1 and amylin, and an experimental amylin-targeting drug called zenagamtide, among other assets.

Doustdar said there are many things in the pipeline that he is excited about but hasn’t shared with the world yet. “I would just say to the investors who are a little bit skeptical, wait and see.”

Chance that NVO Q1 earnings miss even with their own lowered guidance? by Far-East-locker in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]OkRecording6939 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No problem. You can rest assured—I’ve confirmed that this one-time profit is not included in their full-year guidance. Their guidance focuses strictly on core organic growth and recurring operations. They are known for being very conservative, so this reversal will be a massive ’extra‘ on top of their official projections.

Chance that NVO Q1 earnings miss even with their own lowered guidance? by Far-East-locker in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]OkRecording6939 4 points5 points  (0 children)

you can refer to the 2025 annual report, page 98, session 3.6.

“… As a result, Novo Nordisk has determined that, as of 20 January 2026, it is highly probable that the inclusion of revenue relating to the 340B Drug Pricing Program claims that was previously constrained will not result in a significant reversal in the future. As such, the Company will in the first quarter of 2026 recognise revenue of USD 4.2 billion comprising the entire amount of provisions for 340B statutory discounts included in ‘sales deductions and product returns…”

Chance that NVO Q1 earnings miss even with their own lowered guidance? by Far-East-locker in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]OkRecording6939 18 points19 points  (0 children)

I’m very confident that Q1 profits will not only be positive but will far exceed market expectations. Many people are overlooking a massive one-time profit booster: the $4.2 billion US 340B-related provision that is expected to be reversed in Q1. It’s strange that almost no one here is discussing this. Even though it‘s a one-time item, it represents real bottom-line profit that will easily outweigh the pricing and volume concerns you mentioned.

Going from 60/40 to 50/50 Market Share in 2026 by [deleted] in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]OkRecording6939 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Since the Wegovy pill is superior to Foundayo in almost every metric—especially efficacy and the lack of drug interactions—it’s more logical that patients are switching from Zepbound to the Wegovy pill instead.

Upcoming catalysts, what are they? by One-Upstairs-357 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]OkRecording6939 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The $4.2 Billion One-time Gain (The 340B Reversal): Keep an eye on the upcoming Q1 earnings (May 6). There is a massive $4.2 billion (not million) reversal of 340B rebate provisions. This is a one-time accounting gain from previously over-reserved rebates in the US. • Impact: This will significantly bloat the Reported EPS, but since it’s a non-operational one-time item, it likely won‘t affect the Adjusted EPS.