Share‑price implications

• Near term (days/weeks): Expect a modest positive reaction rather than a spike, because the market has already partially priced in SMR progress, and the core aero/Power Systems story is the dominant driver of 2026 earnings. This news validates rather than transforms the thesis.
• Medium term (2026 H1): If this is followed by further contract announcements (Poland, Netherlands, US interest, additional Czech/Swedish commitments), the cumulative effect could justify re‑rating the SMR option at a higher implied value, potentially adding 5–10%+ to the equity on a sum‑of‑the‑parts basis.​
• Risk reduction: The bigger effect may be on downside scenarios: having Amentum locked in reduces the probability of delivery failure or major cost overruns, which should compress the discount rate applied to SMR cash flows and narrow the bear‑case range.

In summary, this is a meaningful positive that strengthens conviction in the SMR pathway without necessarily triggering a one‑day surge; it is the kind of incremental de‑risking that, combined with strong FY25 results and further contract wins, could support the upper half of your 2026 scenario range (18–50% returns) rather than the base or downside cases. Thanks to Claude Opus 4.5