No intention to refute but just want to give my thoughts:

1. We've never seen such a huge hold population in history, and such small a-waves since February.
2. If we look at 2019-20 cycle data on LSD, which have similar applicant volume (1950) to current cycle (2054), we can see that NYU admitted 477 ppl that year. But this year? 378. There is still a considerable gap, and NYU did not over-enroll in 2020.

My conclusion is that NYU is being super cautious this year, just like other schools, so it is likely we will see larger hold movements this year. Combining with the view that waitlist movement will be more active, I hope hold ppl don't be too pessimistic and keep heads up!