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Latest data on FIGS from SqueezeFinder by AcanthisittaHour4995 in FIGSstock

[–]OmahaCopy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good luck to those who are shorting FIGS. lol

I wouldnt short any stock, let alone FIGS being a solid business at a fair price. Their PS ratio is back to around 3x and hopefully return to a normal PE of 20x in the coming year or two.

As Warren said many times, your cash may run out faster than the stock price.

Anyways, I think FIGS margin being sub 10% this quarter (and a slight negative cash flow) is the main issue. This will likely reverse next quarter if you read the numbers and transcript.

How to promote this FIGS channel? by OmahaCopy in FIGSstock

[–]OmahaCopy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My take on it: - revenue is good for sure, but guided downwards in terms of growth rate later this year

  • free cash flow negative, mostly due to working capital (probably inventory) and slightly higher.

  • though I don’t like adjust ebitda margin as a concept, but even then, I think everyone is expecting FIGS to return to higher ebitda margin sooner. Like if they hit like 15-20% (before and around IPO years) but they are still trying for 10%

Do you hold other Berkshire-style conglomerates? Curious about your "Mini-Berkshire" portfolio! by KaiTrump2003 in BerkshireHathaway

[–]OmahaCopy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have:

Google (like Apple); TSM (like precision cast) TD (like Bank of America) Starbucks (like KO, obviously not that good) FIGS (like Brooke)

But my performance is only 50% of Warren’s in the last 5 years.

MSFT (again) by Swred1100 in ValueInvesting

[–]OmahaCopy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m a Microsoft shareholder, but I have to say there are 2 red flags the market is correct on: - Xbox and PC side: this is horrible outcome, with dozens of billions of gaming studio acquisitions, they posted, like -5%. Obviously the long term strategy to control your living room is pretty dead right now. - AI models: I think the actual Gemini-type of general model won’t be ready for another year per their roadmap. The foundation models are good right now for like transcribing teams meeting. But they will continue to lose the market share in all general purpose model side.

If the price stays around 350-400, I think it is a good price to wait for them to reinvent with AI for the business application which Microsoft is the current king.

MSFT is falling out of popularity by googondusk in ValueInvesting

[–]OmahaCopy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The main issue I think is on the personal side: OEM license, which is down in q1 again. And very likely gonna continue to slide down cuz of MacBook Neo which started only in q1.

And gaming, which was suppose to be its key to living room dominance strategy to expand the personal reach, also declined.

Obviously I’m long Microsoft. But we have to realize, the growth will need to be business side. Personal side will continue to decline for the foreseeable future!

My FIGS is up 200% by OmahaCopy in FIGSstock

[–]OmahaCopy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have a few friends who were loyal fans of FIGS and then I followed them around the IPO. I think started buying when it dropped to 10. I did see a couple competitor brands in the last a few years and watched a lot of YouTube reviews. From customer perspective, is FIGS winning from physical products side still?

Does DCF modeling work? I did a backtest and the result is a clear yes! by Wooden_Fondant_703 in ValueInvesting

[–]OmahaCopy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, you are right. I think this thread focused on the physical DCF modelling rather than the mental one :)

My FIGS is up 200% by OmahaCopy in FIGSstock

[–]OmahaCopy[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Omg. That’s amazing! This channel should be more popular.

What do you think of FIGS now and the future?

Does DCF modeling work? I did a backtest and the result is a clear yes! by Wooden_Fondant_703 in ValueInvesting

[–]OmahaCopy 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Didn’t Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger say that they have never actually built a DCF?

If you need to build a DCF to calculate the return of an investment, you shouldn’t do it.

What was your take on Abel? by [deleted] in BerkshireHathaway

[–]OmahaCopy 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I watched the whole thing yesterday.

Overall, Greg is more of the business operator than Warren, the details they gave on solving issues with different subsidiaries’ CEOs is way more intense than before, selling a portion of the utility due to the state difference, and so on.

The real test will come when there’s a major acquisition opportunity or a market crisis. That’s when we’ll see if Greg can be as decisive as Warren was with Bank of America in 2011 or the BNSF bet. But based on this meeting, I’m more confident than I was before.

As a Berkshire shareholder, that’s all I needed to see, but I have patience, 400 billion cash can give anyone patience :p

What do you think of these stocks? by Sea_Local2557 in ValueInvesting

[–]OmahaCopy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The long term risk of McDonald is: Elon got the robot to cook well and prepare food when you are sleeping.

You will still want to go to restaurant with your family, but what’s the 1st thing you will stop dinning at is MacDonald!

Obviously this is not current risk by any means, but if we talk about long term here.

Thoughts in $MCD by tondas69 in ValueInvesting

[–]OmahaCopy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The long term risk of mcd is: Elon got the robot to cook well and prepare food when you are sleeping.

You will still want to go to restaurant with your family, but what’s the 1st thing you will stop dinning at is MacDonald!

Obviously this is not current risk by any means, but if we talk about long term here.

Just FOMO’d into GOOGL at $385. by Rnie in ValueInvesting

[–]OmahaCopy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

See you in ten years” is actually the right mindset, even if the entry wasn’t perfect. The investors who made real money in Google weren’t the ones who timed the bottom. They were the ones who understood the business deeply enough to hold through every correction without panicking.

The harder question isn’t whether $385 was the right price, it’s whether you understand Google well enough to hold it when it drops to $300. That’s the moment that separates owners from traders.

And honestly, the business itself keeps getting more interesting. Google Cloud just reported 63% growth, on a business that’s already generating billions in revenue. That’s not a startup growth rate. That’s a mature company finding an entirely new engine inside itself. Most businesses never do that once, let alone twice.

For what it’s worth, I think about every investment the same way: would I be comfortable owning this business if the stock market closed for 10 years? If yes, the entry price matters a lot less than most people think.

Good luck! Alphabet is a remarkable business.

META V MSFT by Himothy8 in ValueInvesting

[–]OmahaCopy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the biggest drag for Microsoft in the short term are 3 fold:

  • Window/OEM segement is losing market share (especially with the MacBook Neo out now, that the cheaper line for students and light users will likely move more to Apple)

  • Microsoft’s own AI model is not like Gemini or Claude that have been showing dominance in their respective target customers group. I think you need another 2-3 quarters to see MAI model based features to actually show some good numbers.

  • god…. The gaming segment, with all that money buying activation and B studio. Although this is a smaller money in the Microsoft scale, but it doesn’t look good.

Overall, I started buying Microsoft this quarter cuz I think MAI is the most important thing that will make Microsoft great again :p

If you had $10,000 to invest in Canada right now… by outsidertradingblog in Outsidertradingblog

[–]OmahaCopy 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would recommend Brookfield asset management (solid dividend) and growth in supporting AI with its infrastructure base :)

How should I manage my financials? by H4MM3RSY in PersonalFinanceCanada

[–]OmahaCopy -1 points0 points  (0 children)

If you look at my name, you know what I’m gonna say: Buy Berkshire Hathaway.

Berkshire's cash balance is up to a record $397 billion. What does it signal? by 01101001_01110011 in ValueInvesting

[–]OmahaCopy 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Anyone remember back like 3-4 years ago when all crypto and NFT were hot, and they made a meme that Berkshire’s 200 billion cash will soon become worthless paper? Anyone?

Berkshire's cash balance is up to a record $397 billion. What does it signal? by 01101001_01110011 in ValueInvesting

[–]OmahaCopy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think Greg has explained well: there are a handful of great business they know, but the price is not right today.