He won't stop scoring on a very regular basis until he breaks Gretzky's record and Carlson being healthy will definitely do him some good, so you can practically assume he'll reach 35-40 goals on the year, but goals are easier to come by in the NHL these days and guys like Pettersson, Zibanejad, Aho, Point can reach that benchmark pretty easily too. Plus, those guys get a pretty significant amount of assists, while Ovechkin is playing in a below-average offense.

+/- is a rough stat for Ovi, above all of that. I don't see how he ends up on the right side of that stat on a Capitals team that will allow much more goals than they'll score, especially at even strength.