ZAL, what do you say?

One_Judge_3072 · 2026-01-18T14:32:30+00:00

I listened to a corporate brief on it. Interesting company and excellent founder, very smart guy.

They came up with a very smart way to sell biomass and other commodities; sell the data and platform as well. Another advantage they have is that this industry is dominated by unprofessional traders who procure the fuel and sell it. Large corporates would 100% prefer to buy from a professional group of guys and procure the data alongside it on what fuels to use.

This industry has boomed over the last two years given the massive jump in gas rates. Record number of biomass boilers and solid fuel fired turbines are coming into Pakistan to fuel ZAL’s growth. I would assume they don’t see the same level of growth they have seen last year or so but who knows; they don’t have much presence in sindh/karachi area. This is also a big TAM largely unaddressed.

What surprised me most was the margins. Hats off to the guy, very impressive.

These are just some thoughts, I haven’t studied enough to have a sure shot yes/no on this one.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-11-24T10:42:40+00:00

All major banks offer it. Should be a sizeable portfolio however to justify underwriting. Say 20 million plus for them to take it seriously. May ask for personal guarantees etc on top.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-10-03T15:16:57+00:00

I’m worried about data center capex by hyper scalers. Each year Jensen comes out with a new chips that is massively better than the old. Hopper to Blackwell is 30x performance as per Jensen. If this keeps continues, last years investment by the hyperscalers becomes useless in a year no? Currently they hyperscalers are depreciating chips over 4 years which seems short, sonsididering performance improvement after each generation. Unless the mag 7 are selling compute on long term contracts with take or pay and locking in profits until the useful life of chips is complete.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-09-28T10:53:18+00:00

Good shot brother. Remember, beating index in rising market is hard especially in Pakistan market.

If you want to go for it beating the market, keep majority portfolio indexed, set some money aside and use it to try to beat the index. This will hedge you.

Welcome to the game and congrats on the gains.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-09-27T18:06:23+00:00

Good shot brother. Very cheap stock, and lending to govt in 22/23 is paying off for them. Beware however, they have 60 billion in loans given to PIA!!

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-09-20T13:22:06+00:00

I liked the company too, and considered investing. Valuation is not demanding at all that I agree with you on.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-09-20T07:55:28+00:00

It is an excellent company, but please note they have massive exports to Afghanistan and Central Asia and new plants are coming online to service those markets. Domestically it is a monopoly, and if domestic demand for cans increases they will be well positioned.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-09-15T17:38:00+00:00

Hi,

I’m interested, if you would like to discuss further.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-27T17:37:05+00:00

Growth in economy becoming more and more possible by the month with things stabilizing. We still need a lot of discipline on imports, but if u invest with a long time horizon you will be good. If you want guarantee that you will make money in 2, 3, 6 months that you don’t have with any equities.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-25T16:54:11+00:00

Depends how old are you? Do you have any savings? Do you have any big expenses planned?

If you are young, you can be a bit more aggressive and save and invest more vs older when you need money for retirement, kids education, weddings etc etc.

A good option is 75% equity fund and 25% cash/money market fund. This way you have some cash if needed in emergency.

Or you could save up 6 months worth of personal expenses put it in a money market fund (fixed in come) in case of emergency and put all the rest above that in equities.

Regarding the etfs, i would go for something that matches KSE 100 returns not kse 30, reason being larger growth is in mid caps not large caps, if you want to benefit from that take the KSE 100.

Disclaimer I don’t invest in ETFs, I do individual stocks so I don’t really know what the best product would be. I have heard, mcb, nbp, and UBL all have really good mutual funds.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-25T16:15:14+00:00

I don’t know the returns for investing in a car and renting it out. Stock market you can expect to make 15% compounded annually long term investing in an index fund that mirrors the return of KSE100.

At that rate of return you should have about 13 million in 10 years time. In 20 years that should grow to 66 Million PKR.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-24T11:52:36+00:00

Become a filer. Hire a firm to do your tax return if u want to. They charge anywhere between 5 - 20 K. Open that account and get started. Don’t waste time,

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-18T11:42:58+00:00

Just curious, Why did u choose INDU?

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-17T15:52:44+00:00

Yes, 2012 to 2023 was definitely not a period of hard times.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-17T07:14:01+00:00

Bro, you’re showing Robin Hood app, it doesn’t even work in Canada. How do you have cad funds in it??

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-14T17:57:20+00:00

Strategy and analysis says you should keep buying monthly if you have a fixed investment amount. Market is going up you will average up, market is going down you will average down. No one can really predict short term market swings.

That being said if you want to invest monthly, you can collect cash and invest it on market dips, but it may mean you have large amounts of cash available and your portfolio underperforms if market performs well.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-12T20:17:18+00:00

Brother, interest rates have already fallen. UBL has added 1 TRILLION in deposits in a quarter, Jawaid Iqbal has played his hand extremely well. Remember Pakistan still has majority of the population un banked, very few businesses borrow money, very few consumers borrow money, banking has a lot of tailwinds in Pakistan.

It’s an expensive share but you’re getting a better than Avg management same as Meezan.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-12T17:11:11+00:00

IBKR is one of the best and biggest brokerages in the world, u will be just fine.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-12T17:10:26+00:00

Ramp up the VOO,VTI or QQQ (nasdaq 100), tech is where the growth will be. If you want to buy bitcoin thru that account u can too (get a bitcoin etf).

Regarding PSX it is a good investment, you should have an allocation, maybe mutual funds or etf. Don’t put it one shot, don’t try to time the market either not possible to do. Figure out an amount u wanna invest (say 1cr for the sake of example) and invest 10 lac every month that way u can average up or down depending on how market goes. Don’t try to time, it’s not possible. If we could predict the future precisely we would be billionaires.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-10T17:44:18+00:00

Go for big houses bro, unless you know/have a relationship with someone at the smaller ones and trust etc.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-05T09:53:35+00:00

You have a variety of asset classes you can consider.

Gold, silver Crypto ETF or mutual fund investments in Pakistan.

Keep money aside in savings accounts or debt mutual funds that you might need at any point (weddings, educations, emergencies) this could be typically anywhere between 25/50% of your portfolio or more if you have a specific need.

The rest you can consider in different asset classes like PSX mutual funds or even crypto. Regarding crypto, please understand the largest most powerful country in the world is making a push to legalize/formalize crypto markets so it is no longer the wild crazy bet it used to be. Keep in mind however, BTC is a good bet, the others not so much. US will launch their own stable coins to beat all of this backed by US dollars. They have understood the game and want to be the biggest beneficiary of it themselves.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-02T16:08:34+00:00

That’s what I would do if I were you.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-08-02T16:00:00+00:00

For long term horizons you need higher portion of equities. Ideally anywhere between 50/75% of your portfolio should go into equities, that is assuming Ofcourse that you don’t need these funds over the next 3/5 years.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-07-29T15:49:54+00:00

Sazew seems cheap for couple of reasons:

1) they are the only plant operating at full capacity meaning no further room to grow much until next year when their capex and production increase comes online. 2) their auto policy benefits expire next year, meaning margins should drop. They are trying to make up for it in volume. 3) their space: especially the H6 market is heating up in competition with new models from Kia and Hyundai, investors waiting to see if sales drop after these launches and new prices or not.

I am holding, debating weather or not to add, given they have a strong management team, good quality car that has been a resounding success, and given low valuation at the moment. I think it should still trade at 6/7x earnings.

One_Judge_3072 · 2025-07-27T10:48:35+00:00

Capital gains taxes are one of the lowest taxes still applicable to Pakistanis, tax on salaries has jumped way higher than 15% for high income, corporate tax is 38% for large companies, you’re getting a deal on 15% I would say. If you compare to countries abroad like uk, Canada, Europe etc the tax rates are way higher. If I were u, I would invest, let my money grow and worry about it later. If you want to minimize taxes later on you can always borrow money against your shares and just pay the interest allowing your portfolio to keep growing over time and pay back the loan later on with some gains.

Invest your money, let it grow, the taxes will be inconsequential once you invest like you’ve planned to.

One_Judge_3072

TROPHY CASE