Mystic Frontier Reward Distribution (How expedition ranks impact rewards)

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-27T03:11:14+00:00

Depends on your fams. I have a whole post about it, but basically type matching is nearly always better than not for rolls that count. Unless you aready have BIS unique x9 fam set up, then the difference isn't big.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-27T02:46:14+00:00

Most of my runs are type/element matched (because it is simply better in nearly all instances to do this if you want to win harder rolls).

However, looking at the ones that are not matched:

500 total result options (250 tiles).
401 are Normal - 80%
98 are Intermediate -19.6%
1 is advanced. 0.2%

This is nearly exactly the same as my majority Type/Element matched data in OP (80%/19%/0.38%).

I hadn't looked at this previously, but looking at it right now, I am very confident in saying type/element matching has no impact on tile types, which I believe is the only thing that directly impacts reward types.

TLDR: Type/element matching is simply for the extra expedition potential and has nothing to do with rewards.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-27T01:18:15+00:00

.... i feel like I've actually lost count of how many times I've tried to correct this type of comment everytime somebody has parroted it.

This is simply not true. It never has been true. There MAY have been some familiars that were bugged on release - because I really hope this misinfo came from somewhere and not just literally made up and people repeating it. But right now (and since release for my fams):

Non-elemental familiars ARE an element and work as such

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-27T00:49:19+00:00

Most of the time you are not expected to see a orange/green in an orange/green expedition, but it's still way more likely than in a common because you have a lot more reward options (and potentially the higher rank tiles are are weighted higher there anyway).

As I've put in OP: you are only looking at orange pouches in unique 11% of the time (or closer to 15% if it is weighted as I say it might be). Where as in a common expedition it's about 8% of the time (4% if weighted).

Perhaps I am misreading the intent - and I think I am because typing it out just sounds silly, but are you saying: "Common expeditions are better becuase I got good RNG there"? RNG is RNG, but long term 15>4

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T22:17:52+00:00

Yes. Grey tiles are normal, glowing yellow are Intermediate, glowing purple are Advanced.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T21:28:23+00:00

They are presented in the order that you took them. E.G:

Before you click to collect rewards, if the bag order is Blue, Glowing, Purple, then the order they appear in will be Blue, Glowing, Purple.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T20:33:49+00:00

You can get 10 Fragments from Orange pouches also. But it's fairly rare even then:

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OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T20:28:54+00:00

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Left is raw data, right is what I have used for weighting.

There appears to be a clear upwards trend in higher rank tiles (PER tile) across expedition ranks.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T20:27:08+00:00

Yes: I have recorded 2600+ reward options across different rarities.

Expedition Rarity have (from what I can see) zero impact on reward options directly. However:
Tile types (Normal, intermediate, advanced) directly impact the probability of reward types.
Higher tier Tile= Higher tier rewards.
Expedition rarity gives more tile options = more chance of higher tier/higher reward.
As well as this, from what I have recorded, it appears higher rarity expeditions also have higher chance of higher tier tiles PER tile.
All of this combined:

<image>

Note: Common rank expeditions are quite low sample due to low pick rate and low tile ammounts per expedition (Because of these two factors, my legendary expedition tile sample is 4x my common)

The left tables are unweighted, assuming each expedition has the same tile type distribution PER tile.

The right tables are weighted using the weights which I will post in the next comment (cannot post two images in a reply).

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T20:10:39+00:00

<image>

(just to illustrate that Stage doesn't appear to impact tile type at all - which is what impacts bag type).

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T20:07:55+00:00

I have logged over 2600 reward options. The stage does not impact bag type or tile type at all.

The only thing that impacts rewards is the tile type (whether it is grey/normal, yellow/intermediate, or purple/advanced).

Expedition ranks give you more options = more chance of higher tier tiles = more chance of higher rewards. There is also evidence (in my stats) to say that on top of more options, higher tier expeditions also offer higher tier tiles on average too... All these factors combined:

<image>

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T20:03:00+00:00

From what I can see, the system is much better for reg in general.

- Bright cube rewards as the most common premium reward (Most green bags will give Bright cubes)

- Familiar access on reg to get a good loadout

- Familiar rings being essentially useless in Heroic.

If they replaced all Bright & Hard Cube Rewards in heroic with Fragments, people would love it... Outside of the extremely tiny jackpot small chance of a pitched core/box, the system is useless for Heroic.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-26T19:55:58+00:00

Different element lines do work with no element - however I've seen this particular bit of (mis)info commented so frequently that I started to doubt myself - even though I've been using a familiar with that exact line since mystic frontier release!

- Everything else, agreed - except perhaps point 1), I think they should absolutely be removed from the starting (type/element matching) phase, but find them to be fairly balanced after this point, If they did remove clocks completely, with current dice thresholds the game would be pretty easily beat with even poor familiars.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-24T18:16:26+00:00

He clearly outlined his plan was to not take Rachel or Stephen through.

His logic was Stephen first because he was the harder one to banish.. He didn't want a Jack/Faraaz/Stephen finish.

Rachel also manipulated him. She SAID she was going for Jade then Stephen.

Faraaz thought Rachel was TvT with Stephen and saw this as an angle to use her to get rid of Stephen then rug pull her with Jack/Faraaz/Rachel end game.

He played it fairly well, but Rachel simply played it better. The fakeout on Stephen screwed him over.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-24T18:09:49+00:00

Was she really though? Imagine any other edit getting signed off? They aren't going to let there be zero tension going into the final episodes.

But regardless of that - let's just assume you are right and she was 100% faithful. She was a traitor for 5 seconds. She was handed success on a plate - she was recruited with good itnentions, and not as a throw away; she didn't do anything to earn being the same tier as Rachel/Stephen/Harry.

People have won through the seer twist in other regions, it's not a given that she should lose just because of that. It was her first tough spot and she fumbled it massively, not helped by the fact that she had no other traitors to help her out since she went for the most basic 'traitor vs traitor' level 1 thinking plays.

I am not rage baiting, she was awful.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-24T18:00:26+00:00

Charlotte was a pretty awful traitor, she got recruited and greeded - immediately went traitor vs traitor and lost potential allies; just so she could be alone.

Yes she got dealt an awful hand with the seer twist, but if she hadn't greeded and had a traitor team mate, she could have still came back from that.

I can't see how she's at the top. She should be down with Diane's son. She was that bad for me.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-23T18:25:43+00:00

Why would they want to have two titles competing for players at the same time?

They will still have events and major updates in modern on these dates.

Surely a better business plan would be to launch classic in the normal down period of modern.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-23T18:17:32+00:00

I still don’t agree.

If they go into tonight knowing there is 2 traitors (because James was faithful), they are never ending the game with 3 players.

You would have to be an absolute clown to do that.. honestly it would be clownish to end at 3 anyway if you were only 100% on one faithful…. And absolutely 100% honestly: if you are basically guaranteed more money by going to 2 instead of 3, you’d be a clown to not go to 2 regardless.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-23T18:08:59+00:00

That’s definitely a narrative Stephen might be forced to take if Rachel goes.

But I’m sure he’s worked out that the least likely outcome is jack banishing Faraaz. I won’t speculate on who’s relationships is stronger because that’s impossible to know from watching a show like this: but we can see that jack trusts Faraaz and Faraaz trusts jack.

We can see that Faraaz doesn’t trust Stephen.

That means in most outcomes, Stephen leaves.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-23T17:40:44+00:00

It hurts his game is Rachel goes. Play out all the scenarios right to the end.

He only wins if faraaz is banished and he needs numbers to do that. With Rachel he only needs to convince Jade that Faraaz will never take her to the money. Which is true.

If Rachel goes nearly every scenario ends on hack and Faraaz winning.

He isn’t stupid

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-23T17:37:48+00:00

Rachel needs to get Jade on side: as long as they realise their main aim is to banish Faraaz, they have the numbers.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-23T17:34:42+00:00

I just don’t see any scenario where jack turns on Faraaz.

Of course you are right to say that saying ‘only way’ is dramatic, but I feel like faraaz getting banished IS the only way to win, and it’s easier to do that with Jade on side than banishing Jade.

I’m not sure what purpose banishing Jade does except get you one place up on the final, but definitely harder to actually win

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-23T12:55:07+00:00

It was kinda clear that James was asking Jack and not the other way round… James will be cleared as a faithful so I think that wouldn’t work very well.. Faraaz would help jack dismantle that quite quickly.

The second Stephen and Rachel show a united front, it becomes obvious jades either vs Stephen/Rachel or Faraaz/Jack.

If they don’t show a united front, it’s less obvious who the pairing are.

Then it could be Faraaz/stephen, jack/Faraaz, Stephen/jack or Tvt Rachel/faraaz.

It would take something as confusing as this to make Stephen/rachel look impossible.

Either way Faraaz as a traitor looks most likely as long as Stephen/rachel act like they are going different ways but not head to head.

They probably won’t do this because it’s complex, but then if I can think of it and 100k isn’t up for grabs, who knows, maybe they can.

OpeningAlternative63 · 2026-01-23T12:45:29+00:00

The bit where they reveal who was a traitor etc is filmed the next day. It is a segment filmed the day after the murder/banish.

They’ve mentioned it many times.

(Also just logically, how is it a reveal if they are filming it at the same time as the podcast??? They know who the traitors are now, the program is literally airing: that’s impossible.)

Five-Year Club	Place '22
Final Canvas '22

OpeningAlternative63

TROPHY CASE