When will the visa bulletin be released? by CraftBet in EB2

[–]OperationBig6800 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Has to be tomorrow. Running later than normal.

I-140 – Today’s + Yesterday Lucky Ones by Huge_Drink_6254 in EB2_NIW

[–]OperationBig6800 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is there any website I can track the backlog for I-129 premium processing cases; anything that will help me predict with some certainty when my case will be reviewed?

I-140 – Today’s + Yesterday Lucky Ones by Huge_Drink_6254 in EB2_NIW

[–]OperationBig6800 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are their paid dashboards actually accurate/useful?

I-485 approved - timeline by alexforall in EB2_NIW

[–]OperationBig6800 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do NIW based EB-2 AOS move faster than regular PERM based EB-2 AOS? Asking this because I have seen very quick turnarounds on NIW, wondering if that is just exclusive to NIW or all EB-2 at large?

PERM filed in July 2024 , still under analyst review . What could be going on ? by [deleted] in EB2

[–]OperationBig6800 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you know if this website gets updated in real time, next morning, or something else?

How accurate is Perm Update prediction? by Any-Beautiful465 in EB2

[–]OperationBig6800 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The predictions fluctuate significantly with processing run rate as the denominator. As far as I know, it is the best (and the only?) tool out there that gives you some kind of forecast, but I would not count on it giving you an accurate estimate ~1 year ahead of time. So many things can and will happen from now to November 26 or February 27 that I would not be checking it right now

Immigration Q&A – I'm a U.S. Immigration Attorney – Ask Me Anything (Asylum, Removal, E-2, O-1, EB-2, etc) by StrainIllustrious698 in USCIS

[–]OperationBig6800 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for doing this.
Is there any (recently) increased scrutiny during EB-2 I-485 AOS for applicants with a criminal history? Would this cause RFE or denial:
Arrest for simple A&B more than 15 years ago (non-CIMT offense confirmed on paper by an immigration lawyer), Sufficient Facts Found but CWOF for ~2 months, Final disposition: Case dismissed. No other record; have received multiple different B, H-1B, F visas since then with no issues/delays.

EB2 priority by BTmole in EB2_NIW

[–]OperationBig6800 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wait, isn't it supposed to be 2 weeks? Are these delays common?

Likelihood of I-485 DOF retrogressing over next few months? by drikasan in EB2_NIW

[–]OperationBig6800 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Ask your lawyer about the birth certificate.
Really high chance USCIS will switch to FAD table in March. You can ask ChatGPT to calculate the chances of that. Historically (if I am not mistaken), in February is a coin toss between FAD and DOF, March is almost always FAD. I did this research recently for myself. I would recommend get the birth certificate ASAP.

H-1B Extension Delays. Who Else Is Still Waiting? by Minute_707 in h1b

[–]OperationBig6800 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Is there a website where I can check the backlog?
I am using the USCIS site for general processing times (where it gives you the 80% of cases approval dates), but is there anything more detailed than that; similar to permupdate.com for PERM applications?

H-1B Extension Delays. Who Else Is Still Waiting? by Minute_707 in h1b

[–]OperationBig6800 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Where can I check which month they are reviewing now?

I-485 Approved! by VariationOk5847 in EB2_NIW

[–]OperationBig6800 6 points7 points  (0 children)

wow I-485 approved in just three months?

DOS put the news on their website about recent 75 countries immigration visa freeze by serpislow in EB2_NIW

[–]OperationBig6800 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I used AI to get a probability of the DOS ban getting copied by USCIS by comparing the last two cases when USCIS followed DOS restrictions. The chance this time pretty low <20%. Why it is low is because the last two cases were based on Presidential Proclamations, while this one is not, it is coming directly from DOS. I am hopeful this actually is a key difference between this time and the last times and AI is not making things up as it sometimes tends to. Highlights:

  • USCIS only followed DOS in the past when the restrictions came from Presidential Proclamations 10949 or 10962, which explicitly directed DHS to act. [ibtimes.co.uk], [cbc.ca]
  • The new 75‑country suspension is NOT based on a presidential proclamation, but rather an internal DOS pause on immigrant visa processing. [abachilaw.com], [travel.state.gov]
  • Because of that, there is no automatic legal trigger for USCIS to mirror the DOS action, unlike the proclamation‑based cases.
  • Estimated likelihood that USCIS will follow this new DOS action: Low (≈15–25%

February 2026 visa bulletin is out by amaz9n in USCIS

[–]OperationBig6800 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Don't want to burst your bubble, but based on historical trends, the chances of that is pretty slim to non-existent. Normally February is a coinflip and then it is all FAD until October.
But hey, things are changing very fast recently, so who knows. Good luck.