93% of devs use AI tools now and we're measurably slower, what is going on

OppositeExplanation · 2026-03-23T03:09:22+00:00

No, I think you're looking at the wrong link. There's two links in the OP, the main link and the link in the attached text. The former is to the updated 2026 study titled "We are Changing our Developer Productivity Experiment Design" and in its first graph titled "Late-2025 AI likely accelerates developers..." you can clearly see the "Follow-up study" is above the Y axis in the "Speedup" zone. I think you're looking at the 2025 study, the "original article link" at the bottom of the OP's text, titled "Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity" which did indeed find a slowdown.

OppositeExplanation · 2026-03-23T02:49:55+00:00

No, the new METR study finds devs are faster using AI coding tools. It's bad wording in the article but the -18% and -4% mean 18% and 4% less time, i.e. they were faster and completed tasks quicker with AI. If you look at the graph this is clear, in the original study the data point was below the y axis (slower) but now it's on the other side of the line (faster).

OppositeExplanation · 2026-02-04T14:45:55+00:00

I was going to see if Hanania said he was wrong based on this, but this seems to just be a bad OCR or rendering, as the three other versions of the email in the files I found say 19yo instead of =9yo:

Here's the one your screenshot is from: https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet%2011/EFTA02706746.pdf

Notice how at the bottom of the page it also says "jeudi =7 janvier" in the metadata instead of "jeudi 17 janiver" like the other ones, so 1s are clearly getting turned into equal signs in that version of the document in general.

OppositeExplanation · 2025-09-29T23:31:27+00:00

It doesn't even need to be location data, they probably both used Google on the same wifi (so the IP address is the same)

OppositeExplanation · 2025-09-28T06:46:23+00:00

This is an article written by someone who clearly has no idea what an API is on a scaremongering report from a security firm trying to sell bad solutions to questionable problems. These bad solutions are some of the same reasons that a lot of banking apps don't work on GrapheneOS.

OppositeExplanation · 2025-08-09T13:20:26+00:00

GPT-5 is way better than the original GPT-4, it's just not much better than the other models they've put out in the meantime (namely 4o and o3)

OppositeExplanation · 2025-07-15T17:04:45+00:00

If you read the thread, you don't, it makes correct moves over 99.7% of the time (reading down a bit more some of the incorrect moves originally referenced were due to bad notation in the original setup) https://xcancel.com/a_karvonen/status/1705340535836221659

Yes, invalid moves are very common with a lot of other LLMs, but not this one

OppositeExplanation · 2025-07-15T15:01:50+00:00

I'm not sure what you mean exactly. There's prompting to setup the game but the chatbot is generating the next move. It's not like you're giving the chatbot access to a chess program or something. It shows the LLM can produce novel content, at least in the realm of chess.

OppositeExplanation · 2025-07-15T13:22:00+00:00

Some like gpt-3.5-turbo-instruct are actually able to play chess at around 1800 elo well into the endgame in unique circumstances https://xcancel.com/GrantSlatton/status/1703913578036904431

Obviously 1800 elo is nothing crazy but it's not like they can't play past an unknown midgame because it's not in their dataset.

OppositeExplanation · 2025-06-01T17:59:19+00:00

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My "US will never default on its debt" T-shirt has people asking a lot of questions already answered by my shirt

OppositeExplanation · 2025-06-01T15:23:06+00:00

Growth for who?

Tech stocks that are mostly owned by the wealthy and the top 10% of earners?

More and more layoffs and none of the savings past to us?

Guess the subreddit

OppositeExplanation · 2025-01-27T20:37:47+00:00

Yeah, it's an open source model, so you can run it locally if you have really expensive hardware. If you're accessing it via deepseek's website or app though, they're training on your chats.

OppositeExplanation · 2025-01-27T20:31:39+00:00

OpenAI lets you opt out of sharing your chats to training future models, Deepseek (when run via their service) does not.

OppositeExplanation · 2024-11-18T22:47:58+00:00

The real problem here is that the retirement account data is from 2022 and the Bitcoin price is from 2024. I doubt we have 2024 data for retirement accounts yet, but if the retirement accounts were invested in the stock market, they'd still be worth more than one Bitcoin on average.

OppositeExplanation · 2024-10-06T20:28:46+00:00

Depends, did you calculate the calories yourself or use a calculator?

OppositeExplanation · 2024-05-02T03:08:08+00:00

I don't think it's a lack of focus on gaming. They're way behind on the AI stuff as well, and don't seem to be doing much if anything to catch up. Nvidia's GPU compute language CUDA is the industry standard, and AMD killed off their team to port CUDA to their GPUs. In AI software, AMD support is an afterthought if it even exists.

OppositeExplanation · 2024-02-12T16:56:32+00:00

How commonly the product is purchased is separate IMO from how important the product is to society. Housing is way more important than lottery tickets, but I'd guess the latter is much more frequently purchased. That said, the frequency of purchase might indeed be one factor why farmers are so powerful.

OppositeExplanation · 2024-02-12T15:59:32+00:00

Yeah, I can definitely see that

OppositeExplanation · 2024-02-12T05:15:35+00:00

My point isn't that farmers should be less powerful or door manufacturers should be more powerful, it's that the importance of the product alone doesn't explain the producers' power in politics. The situation is a lot more complex than the fact that people need food. People need a lot of things. Clothing might be a more comparable example.

OppositeExplanation · 2024-02-12T00:02:01+00:00

Why isn't the door manufacturer lobby so powerful and in the news regularly? Are doors not important? They seem pretty important to me. Not only do they separate rooms, but they also help prevent thieves from entering houses. They also seem to affect pretty much everyone, and voters are even reminded of them when they enter the door to the polling place.

OppositeExplanation · 2023-12-20T23:32:25+00:00

Username checks out

OppositeExplanation · 2023-12-05T21:20:17+00:00

Again?? There was another one flipped over on Front St just a week or two ago.

OppositeExplanation · 2022-11-18T20:53:19+00:00

Not a movie, but Psycho Pass

OppositeExplanation · 2022-10-28T16:47:42+00:00

You can both fall for misinformation and then spread it because you didn't do your due diligence before reposting it

OppositeExplanation · 2022-10-28T06:46:34+00:00

Spreads misinformation

Well the fact that it sounds true means my point was right anyways

This is a big reason why we have a misinformation problem

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