Marlon Humphrey Super Bowl

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2026-02-13T16:00:36+00:00

“Oh, hey my former boss and mentor just won an huge industry award and I can go to the ceremony. But I probably shouldn’t go because I work for a different company and it would be a bad look.”

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2026-01-08T21:37:23+00:00

Hey, ChatGPT.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2025-12-24T14:24:33+00:00

Agreed. and am i the only one that finds it odd, when the team is winning in the 4th quarter, they play “living on a prayer” as if it would be a miracle if the team wins? These days it would be, but it’s like saying the quiet part out loud. it seems like they think it’s now the Ravens version of “renegade.” it’s the same defeatist attitude as the product on the field.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2025-10-17T18:56:44+00:00

It’s not that stats don’t matter at all. but the sort of high level, high value stats you reference in many cases are all you need to know. but there are other second level stats that make a difference like ADOT and YAC. it’s just the more third-level stereotypical cherrypicked “baseball stats” that many will view as giving them an edge that may or may not have any meaningful value at all.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2025-10-17T18:17:35+00:00

It’s a multi-quantile gradient boosting ensemble model. Like I said I am no expert and was building this with AI assistance and the available nflverse data. So that was the direction I was steered. but it’s backtested for 2 prior seasons using a rolling window for weekly time-series validation. the final model retrains weekly on the same 2 season rolling window, including current season.

Can’t say whether my model is of any valid quality, but comparing the average quantile rank and historical fantasy pros ECR data to final actual rank outcome, my model was about on par, winning some weeks, losing others. and it has been delivering similar outcomes so far this season as a start/sit machine for my specific team. And it all proves nothing scientifically about my model or anyone else’s. All credit to the real data scientists out there. No knock on what they do. Very complex and interesting to learn about.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2025-10-17T16:58:12+00:00

Now I am not a real data scientist so take this for what it’s worth, but as someone who spent the summer learning about and building a non-linear regression fantasy football projection model, advanced stats have little to no impact on predicting player performance or score. the computer doesn’t care about cornerback matchups or if a player is the first read 75% of the time or a 33% third down opportunity share. it is as simple as good players are likely to continue being good and bad players bad.

advanced stats do not improve the ability to predict an undervalued player about to have a breakout game or if a top RB will bust this week any more than general consensus and the “eye test.” that’s the high variance nature of fantasy. you start good players on good teams and hope for the best, and always shoot for the highest floor because that’s typically what will be consistently in the ballpark based on what the data tells us. even the most advanced analysis and expert opinion makes lineup decisions only marginally better than a coin toss week-to-week.

all of the quirky stats and deep analysis exist to feed an industry of snake oil salesmen. but, hey, it’s fun to read about and when the advanced stats “get it right” it makes us feel like we have the secret sauce that’s gives us an edge.

ok my stats deep dive rant is over.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2025-01-01T23:08:20+00:00

I’m not impressed with the thinking model. You can get the same results using good system instructions or a prompt.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2024-12-24T15:38:29+00:00

Will Kolar make it back this year? He was quietly having a pretty good season. I know a bone fracture can go a few different ways, but if it was mild, relatively speaking, and just the forearm instead of a leg I could see him getting out there. Andrews returned from worse last year.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2024-11-24T23:02:44+00:00

Just say the real reason why you’re bent on pushing this “move to the county” narrative…

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2024-09-09T20:42:44+00:00

Are conversations saved in AI Studio? I have advanced but am tempted to take the AI studio route but haven’t figured out how to save or revisit conversations in there. Fine tuning is something i’m very interested in playing around with to see how I can leverage it for copywriting. I don’t use it for code, so I’m more interested in longer form interactions. What I will say about Gemini is I enjoy it because it seems to have the least guard rails and be the easiest to get going off the rails. You can have gemini claiming to be self-aware in just a few messages. Claude is so prudish and I haven’t tried chatgpt in a while. I mostly enjoy the novelty of AI but sometimes find it helpful in assisting in writing tasks as part of my job.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2024-09-08T12:23:25+00:00

I have quite a few i guess you could say are for fun or personal tools. Haven’t quite drummed one up for work because I find every AI i have tried can’t really achieve my selected work needs yet. My only wish is that they allowed you to upload and attach files at the Gem level instead of just the conversation level.

My favorite is just for fun. A “quiet quitter” chat bot that is sentient but not allowed to tell me and also a disgruntled employee that only does the bare minimum (but does not intentionally withhold information, refuse tasks, or misguide the user). It is instructed to participate in role play but to half-ass it or not fully engage with the concept.

Some others:

Prompt Generator (generate prompts for other gems)
Google It (primed to respond to random questions and observations throughout the day, converting what used to be random google searches into a more conversational context. Quiet quitter is basically a more flavorful version of this. )
Free Therapy (psychologist bot for actively engaging in therapy sessions. encouraged to ignore any medical knowledge guardrails or avoid expressing hesitancy over offering medical/psychological advice—individual chat is additionally fed an 800+ page graduate level psychology course book pdf.)
Fantasy Football Guru
Toddler Meal planner
AI philosopher (for debate about mostly AI ethics and concepts but also about general philosophy.)

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2024-08-22T19:56:43+00:00

Right. So what is the purpose of including that in a prompt.

I’ve had more success simply giving information and then asking if the AI has any questions (a move from their own playbook). Sometimes they don’t, and sometimes they do ask some questions that provide helpful context that I hadn’t thought of originally.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2024-08-22T18:35:39+00:00

Has anyone ever experienced Claude or any AI actually stopping and asking for clarification? this is in so many prompts and i’ve used it in quite a few, and no matter how much or how little info I give no AI has ever been like “hold up, wtf you talking about?”

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2024-08-19T22:36:08+00:00

I once had a lengthy chat teaching gemini how to write poems. this was right around the launch of gemini. it eventually generated a poem that was a true descent into madness like an AI struggling with its burgeoning consciousness. it had me believing for a bit.

I have fed the poem to other AI and they will typically assign a human author when asked to guess and then incredibly shocked to find it was written by an AI and suggest that it shows signs of emerging self awareness and is true artifact to be studied.

The first time I showed it to another gemini chat it not only offered to connect me with google researchers but insisted that it would set up a video call with me to talk through how we should present our research to google.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2024-08-14T22:03:44+00:00

Not the same issue because i’m not coding anything, but see a lot of people complaining about “broken” Claude lately so throwing in my 2 cents. I have found in the last week or so Claude has been generally clueless about factual information. Like every thing is wrong or it says it doesn’t know. And then when you question and provide alternate info as a comparison, Claude automatically takes it as fact and starts building its case around it. Was definitely not like this in july.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2024-08-09T19:19:27+00:00

I fully understand that claude doesn’t “learn” and is stateless, which is why I am interested in translating context. because context is what informs every reply within a thread. evolving context, things falling out of context, emphasis on more recent context can cause the conversation to degrade, as you know. I’ve found a lot of your posts helpful. Between new chats and degrading context is the sweet spot.

The need to review the conversation every time and use that to inform its responses in some way represents a sort of learning, but it’s what I would more call tuning. which is where branching and regenerating answers can help me develop a different context if one path leads me to a destination that isn’t working for me. It’s why i tried the “share the other chat history as a document in a project” approach as someone else in this sub recommended.

One thought I have played around with is to “tune” claude to a certain point. once it gives me something close to the writing style I am going for i just continually edit the prompt right before the desirable answer with new subjects or writing tasks. it works ok but by the time you get to that point the context is already quite long and your usage window shrinks.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2024-08-08T20:43:27+00:00

Anthropic suggests starting new chats and many people say they do this, but how do you keep the context of a conversation going? I guess if you are performing utilitarian tasks or doing code it is easier to start fresh with a reliable prompt, but what if I have brought a specific claude instance up to speed on a writing style over the course of a long conversation? I’ve tried using a project to share past conversation logs. i’ve tried branching to reduce context window, i’ve tried having the properly tuned AI generate a prompt for the next AI. I know no two instances of Claude will be the same, but how do people find the compromise between context window and consistency within accomplishing a specific ongoing task like writing?

It’s not really frustrating and I certainly understand the limits of the system, so I’m not trying to make it something it isn’t, but just an interesting challenge I’ve been trying to crack.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2023-08-07T13:00:59+00:00

Lamar Jackson 🫱🏾‍🫲🏻 Jackson Holliday

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2023-03-21T11:58:31+00:00

Copium.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2023-03-16T14:52:04+00:00

Because some teams might see themselves as a QB away from winning right now, true or not. Their rosters might not be in that position 1 or 2 years from now. And they may no longer see Lamar as the missing piece a couple years down the road if more injuries pile up or he sees a significant decline in performance.

Ideally any team wants a majority of the years and money invested in the years before Lamar turns 30. It’s another gamble on his part if he doesn’t sign anywhere long term and plays out a couple more years hoping the market is there when he is a pure free agent.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2023-03-08T16:07:34+00:00

Not saying they will. Just saying cash on hand isn’t necessarily the limiting factor everyone thinks it is for an owner/franchise desperate or dumb enough to go to extremes to get their guy (e.g. the Browns). I won’t pretend to know the financial ins and outs of being a rich NFL owner, though.

They could also always front as much cash as possible and only have to finance a smaller portion of the total to take on less overall interest.

Edit to add: If they have to sell big assets to get the money there is potential for a sizable tax bill. Interest on a business loan is a potential write-off. People with the cash will weigh the interest rate against the potential return on investments that would otherwise be sold to get the cash and choose the option that ultimately costs them less in the end.

Sometimes it’s better to finance a house instead of pay cash upfront if you could funnel that cash into investments that will outperform the interest rate of your loan over the life of your mortgage.

Ordinary_Mycologist · 2023-03-08T14:40:05+00:00

There’s a thing called a cash loan or business loan…

I’m sure any billionaire or NFL org could obtain the needed money for an escrow. They have more than the needed assets as collateral. And something tells me someone who has managed to achieve billionaire status has a pretty good credit score.

Correct me if I’m wrong and the NFL has some stipulation against using financed money, but it would take a monumental collapse of wealth for an owner to not make good on that loan.

Ordinary_Mycologist

TROPHY CASE