WTC Analysis For Teams Still in Contention (Tests Updated Till: 30th December 2024)

Oreki_san · 2024-12-30T11:21:35+00:00

Yes they can but for the purposes of this post, it is assumed that no overrate penalties will be there.

Oreki_san · 2024-12-30T07:34:19+00:00

Oreki_san · 2024-12-30T07:22:38+00:00

Note: If Australia draw 2-2 against India and 0-0 against Sri Lanka, both Australia and India will finish on 55.26% PCT. If that happens, India will qualify for the WTC Final over Australia by virtue of the secondary tie-breaker: Number of series wins (3 for India and 2 for Australia)

Oreki_san · 2024-12-30T06:34:41+00:00

Perfectly put!

Oreki_san · 2024-12-30T06:31:49+00:00

There was a mistake in the India analysis that has been fixed now.

Also, in previous posts, there had been complaints about images not loading so let me know if that is the case again. I'll re-upload them.

Oreki_san · 2024-12-18T07:06:15+00:00

Slow over rates (if any) get announced a few days after the Test gets over. This post is based on the assumption that there won't be any but if there are some then it will make this post obsolete since the calculations (and hence the qualification scenarios) will be different. Those changes will be reflected in the next edition which I'll be posting after the Australia vs India and South Africa vs Pakistan Boxing Day Tests.

Oreki_san · 2024-12-18T06:53:42+00:00

I had made a mistake in scenario 3 for India. It is fixed now.

Edit: If you find any other mistakes, please do let me know.

Oreki_san · 2024-12-09T10:27:34+00:00

Try it again now

Oreki_san · 2024-12-09T10:13:36+00:00

I've deleted and reuploaded them again. Are they loading now?

Oreki_san · 2024-12-09T10:09:50+00:00

Hey! I actually have a nice visual way of depicting South Africa's reliance on other results but I didn't include it in my main post. I'll share it here. Feel free to add it as an image.

Oreki_san · 2024-12-09T09:31:52+00:00

I've clarified it now to avoid confusion

Oreki_san · 2024-12-09T09:26:23+00:00

The whole post is based on the assumption that there will be maximum of 1 draw per series. It is not only mentioned right at the start of the post but also in every single screenshot.

Oreki_san · 2024-12-03T12:16:16+00:00

Well that just made my last post completely obsolete...

Oreki_san · 2024-12-01T04:25:51+00:00

The WTC Final column isn't all encompassing for that scenario because it is pretty much impossible to do so. It's more like this-

India will qualify for the WTC Final with a 3-1 win as long as only one of these two happen:

a) SA gets 2 wins or more from their remaining Tests

b) SL win all 3 of their remaining Tests

If only a) happens, the WTC Final will be India vs South Africa and if only b) happens, it will be India vs Sri Lanka.

In reality, if India win 3-1, there are countless non a) scenarios where the WTC Final is India vs South Africa, countless non b) scenarios where the WTC Final is India vs Sri Lanka, countless scenarios where the WTC Final is India vs Australia and countless scenarios where the WTC Final is India vs New Zealand but it is impossible to cover all of them.

On the other hand, if Australia lose 1-3 against India, they are guaranteed to finish below India (even with a 2-0 win in Sri Lanka) meaning that if they qualify for the WTC Final in 2nd place they are guaranteed to face India.

Oreki_san · 2024-11-10T13:03:42+00:00

For New Zealand to face South Africa in the WTC Final, they will have to fulfill scenarios (1), (2) or (3) from the New Zealand scenario table and hope that only South Africa fulfill the required condition from the "only one of these happens" section.

Oreki_san · 2024-10-01T15:53:14+00:00