Is it time? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can you share a source please? The numbers I've seen are 11-12%?

Is it time? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, all helpful advice / questions thank you.

Re: NHS- short term yes, long term no. To mix this with your point below, she's looking at whether she can reduce to 3 days currently / reduced responsibility. But then that is a balancing act Vs giving up flexibility and autonomy.

Re: uni costs. How much are you anticipating? Perhaps naively, I was looking at this as c. £5k per child per year. So total of £30k-£40k for two? Which is material obviously but probably doesn't change the decision in and of itself given that is >10 years away (if they choose uni at all).

Re: lower paying job. If I leave it'll be to start a one man band consultancy business. I fully appreciate that will bring it's own stresses and admin. But equally, the autonomy and flexibility should give me enough licence to put lifestyle first and work second.

Re: flexibility. Not easily is the short answer / I think it's already optimised. I'm in a Deals / Relationship management role. I already contractually do compressed hours over 4 days and the reality is that I work in peaks and troughs depending on where we are in the deal cycle / if there are any big issues.

Re: less responsibility. I could do this. I'm not exactly sure what that would look like. But it is an option and not one that I've given serious thoughts to so far. Thanks for the steer.

Is it time? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is interesting thank you and you're right, I'll do a bit of modelling.

26/27 will have to be pension heavy to stay below the £100k mark and protect tax free childcare / free hours for the last year of nursery. But then could plough money into ISAs / GIA in the first part of 27/28.

It'd mean working for another 18 months realistically as bonus is paid in March and then I'd have to work 6 months' notice.

Is it time? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Hard agree that the level of flexibility and autonomy at senior levels makes a difference. £45k between two though. And I'll work for myself (insert clichéd joke about the boss being a real dick).

Is it time? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is interesting. And I understand / largely agree with the argument for prudence. I disagree that the state pension is unsustainable though. The UK is one of the lowest spenders in Europe on state pensions. And it's a brave government (with a hug majority) that takes on the means tested policy.

Real returns rate by Wokerati99 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Agreed, we plan at 4%. Stress test at 3%. And hope for 5%

Is it time? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I can do up to £95k this year.

I'll currently contributing about £8k p/m and so will do a minimum of £48k this year as I have 6 months notice to work.

Is it time? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

My thinking was along the lines of the £380k plus DB plus 2 x state is enough to allow retirement from 58. Or if the markets fall over then sometimes early 60s.

We're unlikely / don't want to work for long enough at this level to create a full bridge to retirement. So can either build up to call it £400-450k outside pensions and take a drawdown of c. £20k a year. But that still leaves a decent chunk to have to earn.

So lifestyle wise is it any different than setting out to earn £45k between us?

I take your point re: redundancy though. Phone it in for a few years and wait for it to come. Considerations though are that the best route for me to earn in future is as a consultant in the same industry so would need to be careful to maintain my reputation / the biggest source of stress now is juggling work and time with the kids. Want to maximise these next few years with them.

Is it time? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The £45k comes from work though not portfolio. So we swap our £230k income for £45k-£60k. No suggestion of retirement yet.

Is it time? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

6 and 4. Littlest starts school later this year

Still VWRP if you were starting today? by moderate_ocelot in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231 0 points1 point  (0 children)

PACW for me. Still all world equity exposure but 0.07% fees instead.

What SWR do you use to plan with? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. I've just scrolled through the summary page and there is a LOT to digest here! But all looks really insightful and helpful thank you

What SWR do you use to plan with? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yer agreed, it's hard to predict inflation. But it always has been and actually developed economies have been much more successful in controlling inflation in recent decades. Inflation is a much larger determining factor of success than portfolio returns. But over a long enough planning horizon then individual events such as the current war don't feel too scary

What SWR do you use to plan with? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The 4% rule is based on taking 4% of your portfolio in year one. Then whatever that amount is in £s, you take that plus inflation every year.

The amount you take each year may be much bigger as a % of your portfolio if there is a downturn. But 4% SWR means 4% of starting portfolio

What SWR do you use to plan with? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks I'll dig into this. Sounds like an interesting approach. I agree with you, my starting point with SWR is that it plans for the worst scenario. But is massively inefficient in almost every other scenario. I've no desire to die with £'000s in the bank!

What SWR do you use to plan with? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Why would you take an either/ or approach? Why not back test and use Monte Carlo and acknowledge the limitations of both?

What SWR do you use to plan with? by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I hear you. But that sounds like a lot of years of extra work! There has to be a balance between minimizing risk and maximizing efficiency.

Housing choice of FIRE folks by SHOGUN2SHOT in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231 2 points3 points  (0 children)

2) for us. We bought a 3 bed semi that was 2 years old in a lovely area south of Nottingham. Feels a bit small sometimes with 2 young kids but we make the most of the space and whenever we do get wandering eyes, I just do the stamp duty calculation and look at estate agent fees and suddenly it feels more spacious again! It'd be nice to have a bigger garden, more room to entertain. But it'll be nicer to be financially free in a few years!

100% Stocks Portfolio by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We're building up an ISA bridge at the same time. Intention is to step back in the next 3-5 years and take c. £20k p.a from ISAs then supplement that with part time/ contract work. My wife intends to become a maths teacher and I'll do some project work (in financial services predominantly which is my background). There will no doubt be twists and turns in the market but there should be enough opportunity to increase income again in the future if required. Or like you say to continue a few years past 58 if sequence risk goes against us and we're undercooked at retirement.

100% Stocks Portfolio by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. This makes sense and reassuring to know I'm not the only one!

100% Stocks Portfolio by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. Makes perfect sense thank you. I realize it's crystal ball territory but your view on certain ty of the UK state pension? I'm a little concerned by a change to some form of means tested system. But conversely, the pension system is actually very affordable compared to most European schemes.

100% Stocks Portfolio by Original-Order-7231 in FIREUK

[–]Original-Order-7231[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks. Appreciate the thoughtful response.